Supermodeling Improving Predictions with an Ensemble of Interacting Models

The modeling of weather and climate has been a success story. The skill of forecasts continues to improve and model biases continue to decrease. Combining the output of multiple models has further improved forecast skill and reduced biases. But are we exploiting the full capacity of state-of-the-art models in making forecasts and projections? Supermodeling is a recent step forward in the multimodel ensemble approach. Instead of combining model output after the simulations are completed, in a supermodel individual models exchange state information as they run, influencing each other's behavior. By learning the optimal parameters that determine how models influence each other based on past observations, model errors are reduced at an early stage before they propagate into larger scales and affect other regions and variables. The models synchronize on a common solution that through learning remains closer to the observed evolution. Effectively a new dynamical system has been created, a supermodel, that optimally combines the strengths of the constituent models. The supermodel approach has the potential to rapidly improve current state-of-the-art weather forecasts and climate predictions. In this paper we introduce supermodeling, demonstrate its potential in examples of various complexity, and discuss learning strategies. We conclude with a discussion of remaining challenges for a successful application of supermodeling in the context of state-of-the-art models. The supermodeling approach is not limited to the modeling of weather and climate, but can be applied to improve the prediction capabilities of any complex system, for which a set of different models exists

A random cell motility gradient downstream of FGF controls elongation of amniote embryos

Vertebrate embryos are characterized by an elongated antero-posterior (AP) body axis, which forms by progressive cell deposition from a posterior growth zone in the embryo. Here, we used tissue ablation in the chicken embryo to demonstrate that the caudal presomitic mesoderm (PSM) has a key role in axis elongation. Using time-lapse microscopy, we analysed the movements of fluorescently labelled cells in the PSM during embryo elongation, which revealed a clear posterior-to-anterior gradient of cell motility and directionality in the PSM. We tracked the movement of the PSM extracellular matrix in parallel with the labelled cells and subtracted the extracellular matrix movement from the global motion of cells. After subtraction, cell motility remained graded but lacked directionality, indicating that the posterior cell movements associated with axis elongation in the PSM are not intrinsic but reflect tissue deformation. The gradient of cell motion along the PSM parallels the fibroblast growth factor (FGF)/mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) gradient1, which has been implicated in the control of cell motility in this tissue2. Both FGF signalling gain- and loss-of-function experiments lead to disruption of the motility gradient and a slowing down of axis elongation. Furthermore, embryos treated with cell movement inhibitors (blebbistatin or RhoK inhibitor), but not cell cycle inhibitors, show a slower axis elongation rate. We propose that the gradient of random cell motility downstream of FGF signalling in the PSM controls posterior elongation in the amniote embryo. Our data indicate that tissue elongation is an emergent property that arises from the collective regulation of graded, random cell motion rather than by the regulation of directionality of individual cellular movements

Visual ecology of aphids – a critical review on the role of colours in host finding

We review the rich literature on behavioural responses of aphids (Hemiptera: Aphididae) to stimuli of different colours. Only in one species there are adequate physiological data on spectral sensitivity to explain behaviour crisply in mechanistic terms. Because of the great interest in aphid responses to coloured targets from an evolutionary, ecological and applied perspective, there is a substantial need to expand these studies to more species of aphids, and to quantify spectral properties of stimuli rigorously. We show that aphid responses to colours, at least for some species, are likely based on a specific colour opponency mechanism, with positive input from the green domain of the spectrum and negative input from the blue and/or UV region. We further demonstrate that the usual yellow preference of aphids encountered in field experiments is not a true colour preference but involves additional brightness effects. We discuss the implications for agriculture and sensory ecology, with special respect to the recent debate on autumn leaf colouration. We illustrate that recent evolutionary theories concerning aphid–tree interactions imply far-reaching assumptions on aphid responses to colours that are not likely to hold. Finally we also discuss the implications for developing and optimising strategies of aphid control and monitoring

Centrifuge model testing for pile foundation reuse

With continuous development in the urban environment the ground is becoming more and more congested with redundant foundations. The underground development of services and infrastructure already restricts the location of new building foundations and the redundant foundations only add to this problem. This paper describes how existing single pile foundations in overconsolidated clay are likely to behave when their loading conditions are changed by un-loading caused by demolition and subsequent re-loading from a new development. The influence of any new foundations on the existing foundations is also described. Experimental data were obtained from a series of centrifuge model tests undertaken at 60g in which a number of different geometries of novel pile groups were modelled. Model tests included comparison of the behaviour of bored piles when supplemented with mini-pile groups

Epidemiology and Molecular Relationships of Cryptosporidium spp. in People, Primates, and Livestock from Western Uganda

Cryptosporidium is a common gastrointestinal parasite known for its zoonotic potential. We found Cryptosporidium in 32.4% of people, 11.1% of non-human primates, and 2.2% of livestock in the region of Kibale National Park, Uganda. In people, infection rates were higher in one community than elsewhere, and fetching water from an open water source increased the probability of infection. Phylogenetic analyses identified clusters of Cryptosporidium with mixed host origins in people, primates, and livestock outside the park; however, parasites from primates inside the park were genetically divergent, suggesting a separate sylvatic transmission cycle. Infection was not associated with clinical disease in people, even in the case of co-infection with the gastrointestinal parasite Giardia duodenalis. Parasites such as Cryptosporidium may be maintained through frequent cross-species transmission in tropical settings where people, livestock, and wildlife interact frequently, but the parasite may undergo more host-specific transmission where such interactions do not occur. Persistent low-level shedding and immunity may limit the clinical effects of infection in such settings

Ultrastructure of the Intramandibular Gland of Workers and Queens of the Stingless Bee, Melipona quadrifasciata

The intramandibular glands of workers and queens of Melipona quadrifasciata Lepeletier (Hymenoptera: Apidae), at different ages and from different functional groups, were studied using light and transmission electron microscopy. The results demonstrated that these glands are composed of two types of secretory structures: 1.A hypertrophied epidermis on the dorsal side of the mandible that is an epithelial gland. 2. Free secretory cells filling the inner spaces of the appendices that constitute a unicellular gland. The epithelial gland is larger in the young (1-2-day-old workers), and the gland becomes involuted during the nurse worker stage. The unicellular glands of the workers posses some secretion during all of the studied phases, but secretory activity is more intensive in the foraging workers. Vesicles of secretion are absent in the unicellular glands of queens. These results demonstrate that these glands show functional adaptations in different castes corresponding to the functions of each caste

The Non-Canonical CTD of RNAP-II Is Essential for Productive RNA Synthesis in Trypanosoma brucei

The carboxy-terminal domain (CTD) of the largest subunit (RPB1) of RNA polymerase II (RNAP-II) is essential for gene expression in metazoa and yeast. The canonical CTD is characterized by heptapeptide repeats. Differential phosphorylation of canonical CTD orchestrates transcriptional and co-transcriptional maturation of mRNA and snRNA. Many organisms, including trypanosomes, lack a canonical CTD. In these organisms, the CTD is called a non-canonical CTD or pseudo-CTD (ΨCTD. In the African trypanosome, Trypanosoma brucei, the ΨCTD is ∼285 amino acids long, rich in serines and prolines, and phosphorylated. We report that T. brucei RNAP-II lacking the entire ΨCTD or containing only a 95-amino-acid-long ΨCTD failed to support cell viability. In contrast, RNAP-II with a 186-amino-acid-long ΨCTD maintained cellular growth. RNAP-II with ΨCTD truncations resulted in abortive initiation of transcription. These data establish that non-canonical CTDs play an important role in gene expression

Postcopulatory sexual selection

The female reproductive tract is where competition between the sperm of different males takes place, aided and abetted by the female herself. Intense postcopulatory sexual selection fosters inter-sexual conflict and drives rapid evolutionary change to generate a startling diversity of morphological, behavioural and physiological adaptations. We identify three main issues that should be resolved to advance our understanding of postcopulatory sexual selection. We need to determine the genetic basis of different male fertility traits and female traits that mediate sperm selection; identify the genes or genomic regions that control these traits; and establish the coevolutionary trajectory of sexes

Coordinated optimization of visual cortical maps (I) Symmetry-based analysis

In the primary visual cortex of primates and carnivores, functional architecture can be characterized by maps of various stimulus features such as orientation preference (OP), ocular dominance (OD), and spatial frequency. It is a long-standing question in theoretical neuroscience whether the observed maps should be interpreted as optima of a specific energy functional that summarizes the design principles of cortical functional architecture. A rigorous evaluation of this optimization hypothesis is particularly demanded by recent evidence that the functional architecture of OP columns precisely follows species invariant quantitative laws. Because it would be desirable to infer the form of such an optimization principle from the biological data, the optimization approach to explain cortical functional architecture raises the following questions: i) What are the genuine ground states of candidate energy functionals and how can they be calculated with precision and rigor? ii) How do differences in candidate optimization principles impact on the predicted map structure and conversely what can be learned about an hypothetical underlying optimization principle from observations on map structure? iii) Is there a way to analyze the coordinated organization of cortical maps predicted by optimization principles in general? To answer these questions we developed a general dynamical systems approach to the combined optimization of visual cortical maps of OP and another scalar feature such as OD or spatial frequency preference.Comment: 90 pages, 16 figure

A Theoretical Model of Ultrasonic Examination of Smooth Flat Cracks

As the Introductory Paper to this Conference explains,1 the CEGB and other high technology organisations are very interested in quantitative NDE for the guidance it gives in the design of inspections and for the support it offers in Safety Submissions to the Regulatory Authorities. An important part of this work is the theoretical modelling and prediction of defect detectability and signal behaviour. This present paper complements the Introductory Paper by describing the technical content of a model we have developed at the CEGB NDT Applications Centre