Predicting future European breeding distributions of British seabird species under climate change and unlimited/no dispersal scenarios

Understanding which traits make species vulnerable to climatic change and predicting future distributions permits conservation efforts to be focused on the most vulnerable species and the most appropriate sites. Here, we combine climate envelope models with predicted bioclimatic data from two emission scenarios leading up to 2100, to predict European breeding distributions of 23 seabird species that currently breed in the British Isles. Assuming unlimited dispersal, some species would be “winners” (increase the size of their range), but over 65% would lose range, some by up to 80%. These “losers” have a high vulnerability to low prey availability, and a northerly distribution meaning they would lack space to move into. Under the worst-case scenario of no dispersal, species are predicted to lose between 25% and 100% of their range, so dispersal ability is a key constraint on future range sizes. More globally, the results indicate, based on foraging ecology, which seabird species are likely to be most affected by climatic change. Neither of the emissions scenarios used in this study is extreme, yet they generate very different predictions for some species, illustrating that even small decreases in emissions could yield large benefits for conservation

An agent-based approach to assess drivers’ interaction with pre-trip information systems.

This article reports on the practical use of a multi-agent microsimulation framework to address the issue of assessing drivers’ responses to pretrip information systems. The population of drivers is represented as a community of autonomous agents, and travel demand results from the decision-making deliberation performed by each individual of the population as regards route and departure time. A simple simulation scenario was devised, where pretrip information was made available to users on an individual basis so that its effects at the aggregate level could be observed. The simulation results show that the overall performance of the system is very likely affected by exogenous information, and these results are ascribed to demand formation and network topology. The expressiveness offered by cognitive approaches based on predicate logics, such as the one used in this research, appears to be a promising approximation to fostering more complex behavior modelling, allowing us to represent many of the mental aspects involved in the deliberation process

From pup to predator; generalized hidden Markov models reveal rapid development of movement strategies in a naïve long‐lived vertebrate

Rapid development of a successful foraging strategy is critical for juvenile survival, especially for naïve animals that receive no parental guidance. However, this process is poorly understood for many species. Although observation of early‐life movements is increasingly possible with miniaturisation of animal‐borne telemetry devices, analytical limitations remain. Here, we tracked 29 recently‐weaned, grey seal Halichoerus grypus pups from colonies in two geographically distinct regions of the United Kingdom. We analysed at‐sea movements of pups throughout their initial months of nutritional independence to investigate the ontogeny of behaviour‐specific (foraging and travelling) movement patterns. Using generalized hidden Markov models (HMMs), we extended the conventional HMM framework to account for temporal changes in putative foraging and travelling movement characteristics, and investigate the effects of intrinsic (sex) and extrinsic (environment) factors on this process. Putative foraging behaviour became more tortuous with time, and travelling became faster and more directed, suggesting a reduction in search scale and an increase in travel efficiency as pups shifted from exploration to an adult‐like repeatable foraging strategy. Sex differences in movement characteristics were evident from colony departure, but sex‐specific activity budgets were only detected in one region. We show that sex‐specific behavioural strategies emerge before sexual size dimorphism in grey seals, and suggest that this phenomenon may occur in other long‐lived species. Our results also indicate that environmental variation may affect the emergence of sex‐specific foraging behaviour, highlighting the need to consider interacting intrinsic and extrinsic factors in shaping movement strategies of long‐lived vertebrates. Moreover, comparing the behavioural state estimations to those of a conventional HMM (no variation in state‐specific movement parameters) revealed differences in the amount and location of foraging activity, with implications for spatial conservation management. Overlooking intrinsic and extrinsic variation in movement processes could distort our understanding of foraging ecology, population dynamics, and conservation requirements

Dark matter annihilation and non-thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect: II. dwarf spheroidal galaxy

We calculate the CMB temperature distortion due to the energetic electrons and positrons produced by dark matter annihilation (Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect), in dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs). In the calculation we have included two important effects which were previously ignored. First we show that the electron-positron pairs with energy less than GeV, which were neglected in previous calculation, could contribute a significant fraction of the total signal. Secondly we also consider the full effects of diffusion loss, which could significantly reduce the density of electron-positron pairs at the center of cuspy halos. For neutralinos, we confirm that detecting such kind of SZ effect is beyond the capability of the current or even the next generation experiments. In the case of light dark matter (LDM) the signal is much larger, but even in this case it is only marginally detectable with the next generation of experiment such as ALMA. We conclude that similar to the case of galaxy clusters, in the dwarf galaxies the SZ_2DM} effect is not a strong probe of DM annihilations.Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures, version accepted by JCA

Avoidance of wind farms by harbour seals is limited to pile driving activities

DJFR, GH, VMJ and BM were funded by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) as part of their Offshore Energy Strategic Environmental Assessment programme. DT and GH were also funded by NERC/Defra EBAO NE/J004243/1. ELJ was funded under Scottish Government grant MMSS001/01. This work was also supported by National Capability funding from the Natural Environment Research Council to SMRU (grant no. SMRU1001). Tags and their deployment in the Thames in 2006 and The Wash were funded by DECC. Tags and their deployment in the Thames in 2012 were commissioned by Zoological Society London, with funding from BBC Wildlife Fund and Sita Trust.1. As part of global efforts to reduce dependence on carbon-based energy sources there has been a rapid increase in the installation of renewable energy devices. The installation and operation of these devices can result in conflicts with wildlife. In the marine environment, mammals may avoid wind farms that are under construction or operating. Such avoidance may lead to more time spent travelling or displacement from key habitats. A paucity of data on at-sea movements of marine mammals around wind farms limits our understanding of the nature of their potential impacts. 2. Here, we present the results of a telemetry study on harbour seals Phoca vitulina in The Wash, south-east England, an area where wind farms are being constructed using impact pile driving. We investigated whether seals avoid wind farms during operation, construction in its entirety, or during piling activity. The study was carried out using historical telemetry data collected prior to any wind farm development and telemetry data collected in 2012 during the construction of one wind farm and the operation of another. 3. Within an operational wind farm, there was a close-to-significant increase in seal usage compared to prior to wind farm development. However, the wind farm was at the edge of a large area of increased usage, so the presence of the wind farm was unlikely to be the cause. 4. There was no significant displacement during construction as a whole. However, during piling, seal usage (abundance) was significantly reduced up to 25 km from the piling activity; within 25 km of the centre of the wind farm, there was a 19 to 83% (95% confidence intervals) decrease in usage compared to during breaks in piling, equating to a mean estimated displacement of 440 individuals. This amounts to significant displacement starting from predicted received levels of between 166 and 178 dB re 1 μPa(p·p). Displacement was limited to piling activity; within 2 h of cessation of pile driving, seals were distributed as per the non-piling scenario. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our spatial and temporal quantification of avoidance of wind farms by harbour seals is critical to reduce uncertainty and increase robustness in environmental impact assessments of future developments. Specifically, the results will allow policymakers to produce industry guidance on the likelihood of displacement of seals in response to pile driving; the relationship between sound levels and avoidance rates; and the duration of any avoidance, thus allowing far more accurate environmental assessments to be carried out during the consenting process. Further, our results can be used to inform mitigation strategies in terms of both the sound levels likely to cause displacement and what temporal patterns of piling would minimize the magnitude of the energetic impacts of displacement.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Harbour seals avoid tidal turbine noise: implications for collision risk

1. Tidal stream energy converters (turbines) are currently being installed in tidally energetic coastal sites. However, there is currently a high level of uncertainty surrounding the potential environmental impacts on marine mammals. This is a key consenting risk to commercial introduction of tidal energy technology. Concerns derive primarily from the potential for injury to marine mammals through collisions with moving components of turbines. To understand the nature of this risk, information on how animals respond to tidal turbines is urgently required. 2. We measured the behaviour of harbour seals in response to acoustic playbacks of simulated tidal turbine sound within a narrow coastal channel subject to strong, tidally induced currents. This was carried out using data from animal-borne GPS tags and shore-based observations, which were analysed to quantify behavioural responses to the turbine sound. 3. Results showed that the playback state (silent control or turbine signal) was not a significant predictor of the overall number of seals sighted within the channel. 4. However, there was a localised impact of the turbine signal; tagged harbour seals exhibited significant spatial avoidance of the sound which resulted in a reduction in the usage by seals of between 11 and 41% at the playback location. The significant decline in usage extended to 500 m from the playback location at which usage decreased by between 1 and 9% during playback. Synthesis and applications: This study provides important information for policy makers looking to assess the potential impacts of tidal turbines and advise on development of the tidal energy industry. Results showing that seals avoid tidal turbine sound suggest that a proportion of seals encountering tidal turbines will exhibit behavioural responses resulting in avoidance of physical injury; in practice, the empirical changes in usage can be used directly as avoidance rates when using collision risk models to predict the effects of tidal turbines on seals. There is now a clear need to measure how marine mammals behave in response to actual operating tidal turbines in the long term to learn whether marine mammals and tidal turbines can co-exist safely at the scales currently envisaged for the industry

Dynamic habitat corridors for marine mammals: intensive use of a coastal channel by harbour seals is modulated by tidal currents [abstract]

Dynamic habitat corridors for marine mammals: intensive use of a coastal channel by harbour seals is modulated by tidal currents [abstract

A Bayesian view of the current status of dark matter direct searches

Bayesian statistical methods offer a simple and consistent framework for incorporating uncertainties into a multi-parameter inference problem. In this work we apply these methods to a selection of current direct dark matter searches. We consider the simplest scenario of spin-independent elastic WIMP scattering, and infer the WIMP mass and cross-section from the experimental data with the essential systematic uncertainties folded into the analysis. We find that when uncertainties in the scintillation efficiency of Xenon100 have been accounted for, the resulting exclusion limit is not sufficiently constraining to rule out the CoGeNT preferred parameter region, contrary to previous claims. In the same vein, we also investigate the impact of astrophysical uncertainties on the preferred WIMP parameters. We find that within the class of smooth and isotropic WIMP velocity distributions, it is difficult to reconcile the DAMA and the CoGeNT preferred regions by tweaking the astrophysics parameters alone. If we demand compatibility between these experiments, then the inference process naturally concludes that a high value for the sodium quenching factor for DAMA is preferred.Comment: 37 pages, 14 figures and 7 tables. Replacement for matching the version accepted for publicatio

Modelling knowledge in Electronic Study Books

Knowledge graphs are a new form of knowledge representation. They are closely related to semantic networks and can be looked upon as in line with Schank's conceptual dependency theory and Sowa's conceptual graphs. The special feature of knowledge graphs is the use of a very restricted set of types of relations, that is considered to be the basic set of primitive relations. The theory of knowledge graphs is outlined in the first part of the paper. In the second part the possibilities of knowledge graphs for solving problems posed by Electronic (Study) Books will be discussed

An overview of jets and outflows in stellar mass black holes

In this book chapter, we will briefly review the current empirical understanding of the relation between accretion state and and outflows in accreting stellar mass black holes. The focus will be on the empirical connections between X-ray states and relativistic (`radio') jets, although we are now also able to draw accretion disc winds into the picture in a systematic way. We will furthermore consider the latest attempts to measure/order jet power, and to compare it to other (potentially) measurable quantities, most importantly black hole spin.Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews. Also to appear in the Space Sciences Series of ISSI - The Physics of Accretion on to Black Holes (Springer Publisher