Modelling and inference for the movement of interacting animals

1. Statistical modelling of animal movement data is a rapidly growing area of research. Typically though, these models have been developed for analysing the tracks of individual animals and we lose sight of the impact animals have on each other with regards to their movement behaviours. We aim to develop a model with a flexible social framework that allows us to capture that information. 2. Our approach is based on the concept of social hierarchies, and this is embedded in a multivariate diffusion process which models the movement of a group of animals. The possibility of switching between behavioural states facilitates dynamic social behaviours and we augment the observed data with sampled state switching times in order to model the animals' behaviour naturally in continuous time. In addition, this enables us to carry out exact inference in a Bayesian setting with the benefits of being able to handle regular, irregular and missing data. All movement and behaviour parameters are estimated with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. 3. We examine the capability of our model with simulated data before fitting it to GPS locations of five wild olive baboons Papio anubis. The results enable us to identify which animals are influencing the movement of others and when, which provides both a dynamic and long-term static insight into the group's social behaviours. 4. Our model offers a flexible method in continuous time with which to model the network of social interactions within animal movement. Doing so avoids the limitations caused by a discrete-time approach and it allows us to capture rich information with regards to a group's social structure, leading to constructive applications in conservation and management decisions. However, currently it is a computationally expensive task to fit the model to data, which in turns limits extending the model to more fruitful but complex cases such as heterogeneity in space or individual characteristics. Furthermore, our social hierarchy approach assumes all relevant animals are tracked and that any interactions have some ordering, both of which narrow the scope within which this approach is appropriate

Modelling group movement with behaviour switching in continuous time

This article presents a new method for modelling collective movement in continuous time with behavioural switching, motivated by simultaneous tracking of wild or semi‐domesticated animals. Each individual in the group is at times attracted to a unobserved leading point. However, the behavioural state of each individual can switch between ‘following’ and ‘independent’. The ‘following’ movement is modelled through a linear stochastic differential equation, while the ‘independent’ movement is modelled as Brownian motion. The movement of the leading point is modelled either as an Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck (OU) process or as Brownian motion (BM), which makes the whole system a higher‐dimensional Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck process, possibly an intrinsic non‐stationary version. An inhomogeneous Kalman filter Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to estimate the diffusion and switching parameters and the behaviour states of each individual at a given time point. The method successfully recovers the true behavioural states in simulated data sets , and is also applied to model a group of simultaneously tracked reindeer (Rangifer tarandus)

Abundances of the elements in the solar system

A review of the abundances and condensation temperatures of the elements and their nuclides in the solar nebula and in chondritic meteorites. Abundances of the elements in some neighboring stars are also discussed.Comment: 42 pages, 11 tables, 8 figures, chapter, In Landolt- B\"ornstein, New Series, Vol. VI/4B, Chap. 4.4, J.E. Tr\"umper (ed.), Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer-Verlag, p. 560-63

Towards Machine Wald

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed \emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways: (1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite. With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page

Tackling transition:the value of peer mentoring

This paper is aimed at those interested in the promotion of student retention in higher education; particularly those with an interest in peer mentoring as a means of student support. It critically discusses the results of an exploratory study analysing the perceptions of peer mentors and mentees within five universities in the United Kingdom. The aim of the study was to analyse how student peer mentoring can aid transition into university by focusing specifically on how senior students can support their junior counterparts in their first year at university. The paper discusses the results of a survey which was completed by 329 student peer mentors and mentees. Focusing on the benefits and outcomes of participation in Mentoring Programmes, the survey was distinctive in that it asked mentors and mentees similar questions. From a theoretical perspective, the paper contributes to debates about peer support in higher education showing that participation in such programmes can have positive outcomes from both social and pedagogic perspectives. Practically speaking, the results have important implications for Higher Education Institutions as the research highlights the importance of putting into place formally structured Peer Mentoring Programmes which facilitate student support at a time when new students are most at risk of ‘dropping out’

Association between Features of Spontaneous Late Preterm Labor and Late Preterm Birth

Objective This study aimed to evaluate the association between clinical and examination features at admission and late preterm birth. Study Design The present study is a secondary analysis of a randomized trial of singleton pregnancies at 34 0/7 to 36 5/7 weeks' gestation. We included women in spontaneous preterm labor with intact membranes and compared them by gestational age at delivery (preterm vs. term). We calculated a statistical cut-point optimizing the sensitivity and specificity of initial cervical dilation and effacement at predicting preterm birth and used multivariable regression to identify factors associated with late preterm delivery. Results A total of 431 out of 732 (59%) women delivered preterm. Cervical dilation ≥ 4 cm was 60% sensitive and 68% specific for late preterm birth. Cervical effacement ≥ 75% was 59% sensitive and 65% specific for late preterm birth. Earlier gestational age at randomization, nulliparity, and fetal malpresentation were associated with late preterm birth. The final regression model including clinical and examination features significantly improved late preterm birth prediction (81% sensitivity, 48% specificity, area under the curve = 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68-0.75, and p -value < 0.01). Conclusion Four in 10 women in late-preterm labor subsequently delivered at term. Combination of examination and clinical features (including parity and gestational age) improved late-preterm birth prediction

Solar System Abundances of the Elements

Representative abundances of the chemical elements for use as a solar abundance standard in astronomical and planetary studies are summarized. Updated abundance tables for solar system abundances based on meteorites and photospheric measurements are presented.Comment: 46 pages; 5 figures; 8 tables; In: Principles and Perspectives in Cosmochemistry.Lecture Notes of the Kodai School on 'Synthesis of Elements in Stars' held at Kodaikanal Observatory, India, April 29 - May 13, 2008 (Aruna Goswami and B. Eswar Reddy eds.) Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2010, p. 379-417 (ISBN 978-3-642-10351-3), 201

Cross-ancestry genome-wide association analysis of corneal thickness strengthens link between complex and Mendelian eye diseases

Central corneal thickness (CCT) is a highly heritable trait associated with complex eye diseases such as keratoconus and glaucoma. We perform a genome-wide association meta-analysis of CCT and identify 19 novel regions. In addition to adding support for known connective tissue-related pathways, pathway analyses uncover previously unreported gene sets. Remarkably, >20% of the CCT-loci are near or within Mendelian disorder genes. These included FBN1, ADAMTS2 and TGFB2 which associate with connective tissue disorders (Marfan, Ehlers-Danlos and Loeys-Dietz syndromes), and the LUM-DCN-KERA gene complex involved in myopia, corneal dystrophies and cornea plana. Using index CCT-increasing variants, we find a significant inverse correlation in effect sizes between CCT and keratoconus (r =-0.62, P = 5.30 × 10-5) but not between CCT and primary open-angle glaucoma (r =-0.17, P = 0.2). Our findings provide evidence for shared genetic influences between CCT and keratoconus, and implicate candidate genes acting in collagen and extracellular matrix regulation

Clonal hematopoiesis associated with epigenetic aging and clinical outcomes

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is a common precursor state for blood cancers that most frequently occurs due to mutations in the DNA-methylation modifying enzymes DNMT3A or TET2. We used DNA-methylation array and whole-genome sequencing data from four cohorts together comprising 5522 persons to study the association between CHIP, epigenetic clocks, and health outcomes. CHIP was strongly associated with epigenetic age acceleration, defined as the residual after regressing epigenetic clock age on chronological age, in several clocks, ranging from 1.31 years (GrimAge, p < 8.6 × 10−7) to 3.08 years (EEAA, p < 3.7 × 10−18). Mutations in most CHIP genes except DNA-damage response genes were associated with increases in several measures of age acceleration. CHIP carriers with mutations in multiple genes had the largest increases in age acceleration and decrease in estimated telomere length. Finally, we found that ~40% of CHIP carriers had acceleration >0 in both Hannum and GrimAge (referred to as AgeAccelHG+). This group was at high risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.90, p < 4.1 × 10−8) and coronary heart disease (CHD) (hazard ratio 3.24, p < 9.3 × 10−6) compared to those who were CHIP−/AgeAccelHG−. In contrast, the other ~60% of CHIP carriers who were AgeAccelHG− were not at increased risk of these outcomes. In summary, CHIP is strongly linked to age acceleration in multiple clocks, and the combination of CHIP and epigenetic aging may be used to identify a population at high risk for adverse outcomes and who may be a target for clinical interventions