Money in monetary policy design: monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model

In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in money growth and inflation, and that therefore money should be used as a cross-check in policy formulation (see Lucas (2007)). We show that the New-Keynesian model can explain such trends if one allows for the possibility of persistent central bank misperceptions. Such misperceptions motivate the search for policies that include additional robustness checks. In earlier work, we proposed an interest rate rule that is near-optimal in normal times but includes a cross-check with monetary information. In case of unusual monetary trends, interest rates are adjusted. In this paper, we show in detail how to derive the appropriate magnitude of the interest rate adjustment following a significant cross-check with monetary information, when the New-Keynesian model is the central bank’s preferred model. The cross-check is shown to be effective in offsetting persistent deviations of inflation due to central bank misperceptions. Keywords: Monetary Policy, New-Keynesian Model, Money, Quantity Theory, European Central Bank, Policy Under Uncertaint

Lipid-rich Plaques Detected by Near-infrared Spectroscopy Are More Frequently Exposed to High Shear Stress

High wall shear stress (WSS) and near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) detected lipid-rich plaque (LRP) are both known to be associated with plaque destabilization and future adverse cardiovascular events. However, knowledge of spatial co-localization of LRP and high WSS is lacking. This study investigated the co-localization of LRP based on NIRS and high WSS. Fifty-three patients presenting acute coronary syndrome underwent NIRS-intravascular-ultrasound (NIRS-IVUS) imaging of a non-culprit coronary artery. WSS was obtained using WSS profiling in 3D-reconstructions of the coronary arteries based on fusion of IVUS-segmented lumen and CT-derived 3D-centerline. Thirty-eight vessels were available for final analysis and divided into 0.5 mm/45° sectors. LRP sectors, as identified by NIRS, were more often colocalized with high WSS than sectors without LRP. Moreover, there was a dose-dependent relationship between lipid content and high WSS exposure. This study is a first step in understanding the evolution of LRPs to vulnerable plaques. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Influence of patient symptoms and physical findings on general practitioners' treatment of respiratory tract infections: a direct observation study

BACKGROUND: The high rate of antibiotic prescriptions general practitioners (GPs) make for respiratory tract infections (RTI) are often explained by non-medical reasons e.g. an effort to meet patient expectations. Additionally, it is known that GPs to some extent believe in the necessity of antibiotic treatment in patients with assumed bacterial infections and therefore attempt to distinguish between viral and bacterial infections by history taking and physical examination. The influence of patient complaints and physical examination findings on GPs' prescribing behaviour was mostly investigated by indirect methods such as questionnaires. METHODS: Direct, structured observation during a winter "cough an cold period" in 30 (single handed) general practices. All 273 patients with symptoms of RTI (age above 14, median 37 years, 51% female) were included. RESULTS: The most frequent diagnoses were 'uncomplicated upper RTI/common cold' (43%) followed by 'bronchitis' (26%). On average, 1.8 (95%-confidence interval (CI): 1.7–2.0) medicines per patient were prescribed (cough-and-cold preparations in 88% of the patients, antibiotics in 49%). Medical predictors of antibiotic prescribing were pathological findings in physical examination such as coated tonsils (odds ratio (OR) 15.4, 95%-CI: 3.6–66.2) and unspecific symptoms like fatigue (OR 3.1, 95%-CI 1.4–6.7), fever (OR 2.2, 95%-CI: 1.1–4.5) and yellow sputum (OR 2.1, 95%-CI: 1.1–4.1). Analysed predictors explained 70% of the variance of antibiotic prescribing (R(2 )= 0,696). Efforts to reduce antibiotic prescribing, e.g. recommendations for self-medication, counselling on home remedies or delayed antibiotic prescribing were rare. CONCLUSIONS: Patient complaints and pathological results in physical examination were strong predictors of antibiotic prescribing. Efforts to reduce antibiotic prescribing should account for GPs' beliefs in those (non evidence based) predictors. The method of direct observation was shown to be accepted both by patients and GPs and offered detailed insights into the GP-patient-interaction

Genome-Wide Association Study and Gene Expression Analysis Identifies CD84 as a Predictor of Response to Etanercept Therapy in Rheumatoid Arthritis

Anti-tumor necrosis factor alpha (anti-TNF) biologic therapy is a widely used treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). It is unknown why some RA patients fail to respond adequately to anti-TNF therapy, which limits the development of clinical biomarkers to predict response or new drugs to target refractory cases. To understand the biological basis of response to anti-TNF therapy, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of more than 2 million common variants in 2,706 RA patients from 13 different collections. Patients were treated with one of three anti-TNF medications: etanercept (n = 733), infliximab (n = 894), or adalimumab (n = 1,071). We identified a SNP (rs6427528) at the 1q23 locus that was associated with change in disease activity score (ΔDAS) in the etanercept subset of patients (P = 8×10-8), but not in the infliximab or adalimumab subsets (P>0.05). The SNP is predicted to disrupt transcription factor binding site motifs in the 3′ UTR of an immune-related gene, CD84, and the allele associated with better response to etanercept was associated with higher CD84 gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (P = 1×10-11 in 228 non-RA patients and P = 0.004 in 132 RA patients). Consistent with the genetic findings, higher CD84 gene expression correlated with lower cross-sectional DAS (P = 0.02, n = 210) and showed a non-significant trend for better ΔDAS in a subset of RA patients with gene expression data (n = 31, etanercept-treated). A small, multi-ethnic replication showed a non-significant trend towards an association among etanercept-treated RA patients of Portuguese ancestry (n = 139, P = 0.4), but no association among patients of Japanese ancestry (n = 151, P = 0.8). Our study demonstrates that an allele associated with response to etanercept therapy is also associated with CD84 gene expression, and further that CD84 expression correlates with disease activity. These findings support a model in which CD84 genotypes and/or expression may serve as a useful biomarker for response to etanercept treatment in RA patients of European ancestry. © 2013 Cui et al

Comparing nuclear power trajectories in Germany and the UK: from ‘regimes' to ‘democracies’ in sociotechnical transitions and Discontinuities

This paper focuses on arguably the single most striking contrast in contemporary major energy politics in Europe (and even the developed world as a whole): the starkly differing civil nuclear policies of Germany and the UK. Germany is seeking entirely to phase out nuclear power by 2022. Yet the UK advocates a ‘nuclear renaissance’, promoting the most ambitious new nuclear construction programme in Western Europe.Here,this paper poses a simple yet quite fundamental question: what are the particular divergent conditions most strongly implicated in the contrasting developments in these two countries. With nuclear playing such an iconic role in historical discussions over technological continuity and transformation, answering this may assist in wider understandings of sociotechnical incumbency and discontinuity in the burgeoning field of‘sustainability transitions’. To this end, an ‘abductive’ approach is taken: deploying nine potentially relevant criteria for understanding the different directions pursued in Germany and the UK. Together constituted by 30 parameters spanning literatures related to socio-technical regimes in general as well as nuclear technology in particular, the criteria are divided into those that are ‘internal’ and ‘external’ to the ‘focal regime configuration’ of nuclear power and associated ‘challenger technologies’ like renewables. It is ‘internal’ criteria that are emphasised in conventional sociotechnical regime theory, with ‘external’ criteria relatively less well explored. Asking under each criterion whether attempted discontinuation of nuclear power would be more likely in Germany or the UK, a clear picture emerges. ‘Internal’ criteria suggest attempted nuclear discontinuation should be more likely in the UK than in Germany– the reverse of what is occurring. ‘External’ criteria are more aligned with observed dynamics –especially those relating to military nuclear commitments and broader ‘qualities of democracy’. Despite many differences of framing concerning exactly what constitutes ‘democracy’, a rich political science literature on this point is unanimous in characterising Germany more positively than the UK. Although based only on a single case,a potentially important question is nonetheless raised as to whether sociotechnical regime theory might usefully give greater attention to the general importance of various aspects of democracy in constituting conditions for significant technological discontinuities and transformations. If so, the policy implications are significant. A number of important areas are identified for future research, including the roles of diverse understandings and specific aspects of democracy and the particular relevance of military nuclear commitments– whose under-discussion in civil nuclear policy literatures raises its own questions of democratic accountability

Genome-wide analyses of platinum-induced ototoxicity in childhood cancer patients: Results of GO-CAT and United Kingdom MAGIC consortia

: Hearing loss (ototoxicity) is a major adverse effect of cisplatin and carboplatin chemotherapy. The aim of this study is to identify novel genetic variants that play a role in platinum-induced ototoxicity. Therefore, a genome-wide association study was performed in the Genetics of Childhood Cancer Treatment (GO-CAT) cohort (n = 261) and the United Kingdom Molecular Genetics of Adverse Drug Reactions in Children Study (United Kingdom MAGIC) cohort (n = 248). Results of both cohorts were combined in a meta-analysis. In primary analysis, patients with SIOP Boston Ototoxicity Scale grade ≥1 were considered cases, and patients with grade 0 were controls. Variants with a p-value <10-5 were replicated in previously published data by the PanCareLIFE cohort (n = 390). No genome-wide significant associations were found, but variants in TSPAN5, RBBP4P5, AC010090.1 and RNU6-38P were suggestively associated with platinum-induced ototoxicity. The lowest p-value was found for rs7671702 in TSPAN5 (odds ratio 2.0 (95% confidence interval 1.5-2.7), p-value 5.0 × 10-7). None of the associations were significant in the replication cohort, although the effect directions were consistent among all cohorts. Validation and functional understanding of these genetic variants could lead to more insights in the development of platinum-induced ototoxicity

Drug interaction potential of high-dose rifampicin in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis

Accumulating evidence supports the use of higher doses of rifampicin for tuberculosis (TB) treatment. Rifampicin is a potent inducer of metabolic enzymes and drug transporters, resulting in clinically relevant drug interactions. To assess the drug interaction potential of higher doses of rifampicin, we compared the effect of high-dose rifampicin (40 mg/kg daily, RIF40) and standard-dose rifampicin (10 mg/kg daily, RIF10) on the activities of major cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes and P-glycoprotein (P-gp). In this open-label, single-arm, two-period, fixed-order phenotyping cocktail study, adult participants with pulmonary TB received RIF10 (days 1-15), followed by RIF40 (days 16-30). A single dose of selective substrates (probe drugs) was administered orally on days 15 and 30: caffeine (CYP1A2), tolbutamide (CYP2C9), omeprazole (CYP2C19), dextromethorphan (CYP2D6), midazolam (CYP3A), and digoxin (P-gp). Intensive pharmacokinetic blood sampling was performed over 24 hours after probe drug intake. In all, 25 participants completed the study. Geometric mean ratios (90% confidence interval) of the total exposure (area under the concentration versus time curve, RIF40 versus RIF10) for each of the probe drugs were as follows: caffeine, 105% (96%-115%); tolbutamide, 80% (74%-86%); omeprazole, 55% (47%-65%); dextromethorphan, 77% (68%-86%); midazolam, 62% (49%-78%), and 117% (105%-130%) for digoxin. In summary, high-dose rifampicin resulted in no additional effect on CYP1A2, mild additional induction of CYP2C9, CYP2C19, CYP2D6, and CYP3A, and marginal inhibition of P-gp. Existing recommendations on managing drug interactions with rifampicin can remain unchanged for the majority of co-administered drugs when using high-dose rifampicin. Clinical Trials registration number NCT04525235.</p