Merger rates of dark matter haloes: a comparison between EPS and N-body results

We calculate merger rates of dark matter haloes using the Extended Press-Schechter approximation (EPS) for the Spherical Collapse (SC) and the Ellipsoidal Collapse (EC) models. Merger rates have been calculated for masses in the range $10^{10}M_{\odot}\mathrm{h}^{-1}$ to $10^{14}M_{\odot}\mathrm{h}^{-1}$ and for redshifts $z$ in the range 0 to 3 and they have been compared with merger rates that have been proposed by other authors as fits to the results of N-body simulations. The detailed comparison presented here shows that the agreement between the analytical models and N-body simulations depends crucially on the mass of the descendant halo. For some range of masses and redshifts either SC or EC models approximate satisfactory the results of N-body simulations but for other cases both models are less satisfactory or even bad approximations. We showed, by studying the parameters of the problem that a disagreement --if it appears-- does not depend on the values of the parameters but on the kind of the particular solution used for the distribution of progenitors or on the nature of EPS methods. Further studies could help to improve our understanding about the physical processes during the formation of dark matter haloes.Comment: 29 pages, 9 figure

Applying Recent Argumentation Methods to Some Ancient Examples of Plausible Reasoning

Plausible (eikotic) reasoning known from ancient Greek (late Academic) skeptical philosophy is shown to be a clear notion that can be analyzed by argu- mentation methods, and that is important for argumentation studies. It is shown how there is a continuous thread running from the Sophists to the skeptical philosopher Carneades, through remarks of Locke and Bentham on the subject, to recent research in artificial intelligence. Eleven characteristics of plausible reasoning are specified by analyzing key examples of it recognized as important in ancient Greek skeptical philosophy using an artificial intelligence model called the Carneades Argumentation System (CAS). By applying CAS to ancient examples it is shown how plausible reasoning is especially useful for gaining a better understanding of evidential reasoning in law, and argued that it can also be applied to everyday argumentation. Our analysis of the snake and rope example of Carneades is also used to point out some ways CAS needs to be extended if it is to more fully model the views of this ancient philosopher on argumentation

Performing women: The gendered dimensions of the UK new research economy

This paper explores the development and maintenance of familiar gendered employment patterns and practices in UK universities, which are exemplars of new modes of knowledge production, commodification and marketisation. After discussing in detail the evidence of gender discrimination in UK higher education and the changes in the academic labour process consequent to the incorporation, at least at the policy level, of universities into the ‘knowledge economy’, institution-specific data is used to highlight the gendered aspects of the research economy from the three intermeshing perspectives of research culture, research capital and the research production process. This nexus is constructed in such a way as to systematically militate against women’s full and equal involvement in research. Lack of transparency, increased competition and lower levels of collegiate activity coupled with networking based on homosociability are contributing to a research production process where women are marginalized

Mobilizing Crop Biodiversity

Over the past 70 years, the world has witnessed extraordinary growth in crop productivity, 1 enabled by a suite of technological advances, including higher yielding crop varieties, improved farm management, synthetic agrochemicals, and agricultural mechanization. While this “Green Revolution” intensified crop production, and is credited with reducing famine and malnutrition, its benefits were accompanied by several undesirable collateral effects (Pingali, 2012). These include a narrowing of agricultural biodiversity, stemming from increased monoculture and greater reliance on a smaller number of crops and crop varieties for the majority of our calories. This reduction in diversity has created vulnerabilities to pest and disease epidemics, climate variation, and ultimately to human health (Harlan, 1972). The value of crop diversity has long been recognized (Vavilov, 1992). A global system of genebanks (e.g.www.genebanks.org/genebanks/) was established in the 1970s to preserve the abundant genetic variation found in traditional “landrace” varieties of crops and in crop wild relatives (Harlan, 1972). While preserving crop variation is a critical first step, the time has come to make use of this variation to breed more resilient crops. The DivSeek International Network (https://divseekintl.org/) is a scientific, not-for profit organization that aims to accelerate such effort

Defining the Conformational Features of Anchorless, Poorly Neuroinvasive Prions

Infectious prions cause diverse clinical signs and form an extraordinary range of structures, from amorphous aggregates to fibrils. How the conformation of a prion dictates the disease phenotype remains unclear. Mice expressing GPI-anchorless or GPI-anchored prion protein exposed to the same infectious prion develop fibrillar or nonfibrillar aggregates, respectively, and show a striking divergence in the disease pathogenesis. To better understand how a prion's physical properties govern the pathogenesis, infectious anchorless prions were passaged in mice expressing anchorless prion protein and the resulting prions were biochemically characterized. Serial passage of anchorless prions led to a significant decrease in the incubation period to terminal disease and altered the biochemical properties, consistent with a transmission barrier effect. After an intraperitoneal exposure, anchorless prions were only weakly neuroinvasive, as prion plaques rarely occurred in the brain yet were abundant in extracerebral sites such as heart and adipose tissue. Anchorless prions consistently showed very high stability in chaotropes or when heated in SDS, and were highly resistant to enzyme digestion. Consistent with the results in mice, anchorless prions from a human patient were also highly stable in chaotropes. These findings reveal that anchorless prions consist of fibrillar and highly stable conformers. The additional finding from our group and others that both anchorless and anchored prion fibrils are poorly neuroinvasive strengthens the hypothesis that a fibrillar prion structure impedes efficient CNS invasion

Prediction of uncomplicated pregnancies in obese women: A prospective multicentre study

BACKGROUND: All obese pregnant women are considered at equal high risk with respect to complications in pregnancy and birth, and are commonly managed through resource-intensive care pathways. However, the identification of maternal characteristics associated with normal pregnancy outcomes could assist in the management of these pregnancies. The present study aims to identify the factors associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth in obese women, and to assess their predictive performance. METHODS: Data form obese women (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m 2 ) with singleton pregnancies included in the UPBEAT trial were used in this analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic, clinical and biochemical factors at 15 +0 to 18 +6 weeks' gestation associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth, defined as delivery of a term live-born infant without antenatal or labour complications. Predictive performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Internal validation and calibration were also performed. Women were divided into fifths of risk and pregnancy outcomes were compared between groups. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated using the upper fifth as the positive screening group. RESULTS: Amongst 1409 participants (BMI 36.4, SD 4.8 kg/m 2 ), the prevalence of uncomplicated pregnancy and birth was 36% (505/1409). Multiparity and increased plasma adiponectin, maternal age, systolic blood pressure and HbA1c were independently associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth. These factors achieved an AUROC of 0.72 (0.68-0.76) and the model was well calibrated. Prevalence of gestational diabetes, preeclampsia and other hypertensive disorders, preterm birth, and postpartum haemorrhage decreased whereas spontaneous vaginal delivery increased across the fifths of increasing predicted risk of uncomplicated pregnancy and birth. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 38%, 89%, 63% and 74%, respectively. A simpler model including clinical factors only (no biomarkers) achieved an AUROC of 0.68 (0.65-0.71), with sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 31%, 86%, 56% and 69%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Clinical factors and biomarkers can be used to help stratify pregnancy and delivery risk amongst obese pregnant women. Further studies are needed to explore alternative pathways of care for obese women demonstrating different risk profiles for uncomplicated pregnancy and birth

Lifestyle intervention in obese pregnancy and cardiac remodelling in 3-year olds: children of the UPBEAT RCT

Background/Objectives: Obesity in pregnancy has been associated with increased childhood cardiometabolic risk and reduced life expectancy. The UK UPBEAT multicentre randomised control trial was a lifestyle intervention of diet and physical activity in pregnant women with obesity. We hypothesised that the 3-year-old children of women with obesity would have heightened cardiovascular risk compared to children of normal BMI women, and that the UPBEAT intervention would mitigate this risk. Subjects/Methods: Children were recruited from one UPBEAT trial centre. Cardiovascular measures included blood pressure, echocardiographic assessment of cardiac function and dimensions, carotid intima-media thickness and heart rate variability (HRV) by electrocardiogram. Results: Compared to offspring of normal BMI women (n = 51), children of women with obesity from the trial standard care arm (n = 39) had evidence of cardiac remodelling including increased interventricular septum (IVS; mean difference 0.04 cm; 95% CI: 0.018 to 0.067), posterior wall (PW; 0.03 cm; 0.006 to 0.062) and relative wall thicknesses (RWT; 0.03 cm; 0.01 to 0.05) following adjustment. Randomisation of women with obesity to the intervention arm (n = 31) prevented this cardiac remodelling (intervention effect; mean difference IVS −0.03 cm (−0.05 to −0.008); PW −0.03 cm (−0.05 to −0.01); RWT −0.02 cm (−0.04 to −0.005)). Children of women with obesity (standard care arm) compared to women of normal BMI also had elevated minimum heart rate (7 bpm; 1.41 to 13.34) evidence of early diastolic dysfunction (e prime) and increased sympathetic nerve activity index by HRV analysis. Conclusions: Maternal obesity was associated with left ventricular concentric remodelling in 3-year-old offspring. Absence of remodelling following the maternal intervention infers in utero origins of cardiac remodelling. Clinical trial registry name and registration number: The UPBEAT trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN89971375

An alert systemfor Seasonal Fire probability forecast for South American Protected Areas.

Timely spatially explicit warning of areas with high fire occurrence probability is an important component of strategic plans to prevent andmonitor fires within South American (SA) Protected Areas (PAs). In this study, we present a five-level alert system,which combines both climatological and anthropogenic factors, the two main drivers of fires in SA. The alert levels are: High Alert, Alert, Attention, Observation and Low Probability. The trend in the number of active fires over the past three years and the accumulated number of active fires over the same period were used as indicators of intensification of human use of fire in that region, possibly associated with ongoing land use/land cover change (LULCC). An ensemble of temperature and precipitation gridded output from the GloSea5 Seasonal Forecast System was used to indicate an enhanced probability of hot and dry weather conditions that combined with LULCC favour fire occurrences. Alerts from this system were first issued in August 2020, for the period ranging from August to October (ASO) 2020. Overall, 50% of all fires observed during the ASO 2017?2019 period and 40% of the ASO 2020 fires occurred in only 29 PAs were all categorized in the top two alert levels. In categories mapped as High Alert level, 34% of the PAs experienced an increase in fires compared with the 2017?2019 reference period, and 81% of the High Alert false alarm registered fire occurrence above the median. Initial feedback from stakeholders indicates that these alerts were used to inform resource management in some PAs. We expect that these forecasts can provide continuous information aiming at changing societal perceptions of fire use and consequently subsidize strategic planning andmitigatory actions, focusing on timely responses to a disaster risk management strategy. Further research must focus on the model improvement and knowledge translation to stakeholders

Semi-Automated Image Analysis for the Assessment of Megafaunal Densities at the Arctic Deep-Sea Observatory HAUSGARTEN

Megafauna play an important role in benthic ecosystem function and are sensitive indicators of environmental change. Non-invasive monitoring of benthic communities can be accomplished by seafloor imaging. However, manual quantification of megafauna in images is labor-intensive and therefore, this organism size class is often neglected in ecosystem studies. Automated image analysis has been proposed as a possible approach to such analysis, but the heterogeneity of megafaunal communities poses a non-trivial challenge for such automated techniques. Here, the potential of a generalized object detection architecture, referred to as iSIS (intelligent Screening of underwater Image Sequences), for the quantification of a heterogenous group of megafauna taxa is investigated. The iSIS system is tuned for a particular image sequence (i.e. a transect) using a small subset of the images, in which megafauna taxa positions were previously marked by an expert. To investigate the potential of iSIS and compare its results with those obtained from human experts, a group of eight different taxa from one camera transect of seafloor images taken at the Arctic deep-sea observatory HAUSGARTEN is used. The results show that inter- and intra-observer agreements of human experts exhibit considerable variation between the species, with a similar degree of variation apparent in the automatically derived results obtained by iSIS. Whilst some taxa (e. g. Bathycrinus stalks, Kolga hyalina, small white sea anemone) were well detected by iSIS (i. e. overall Sensitivity: 87%, overall Positive Predictive Value: 67%), some taxa such as the small sea cucumber Elpidia heckeri remain challenging, for both human observers and iSIS