Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation

Copyright © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd. Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/). Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.Open Access journalThe six summers from 2007 to 2012 were all wetter than average over northern Europe. Although none of these individual events are unprecedented in historical records, the sequence of six consecutive wet summers is extraordinary. Composite analysis reveals that observed wet summer months in northern Europe tend to occur when the jet stream is displaced to the south of its climatological position, whereas dry summer months tend to occur when the jet stream is located further north. Highly similar mechanisms are shown to drive simulated precipitation anomalies in an atmospheric model. The model is used to explore the influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer climate, by prescribing different sea ice conditions, but holding other forcings constant. In the simulations, Arctic sea ice loss induces a southward shift of the summer jet stream over Europe and increased northern European precipitation. The simulated precipitation response is relatively small compared to year-to-year variability, but is statistically significant and closely resembles the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies in recent summers. The results suggest a causal link between observed sea ice anomalies, large-scale atmospheric circulation and increased summer rainfall over northern Europe. Thus, diminished Arctic sea ice may have been a contributing driver of recent wet summers.UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Sudden increase in Antarctic sea ice: Fact or artifact?

Copyright © 2011 American Geophysical UnionThree sea ice data sets commonly used for climate research display a large and abrupt increase in Antarctic sea ice area (SIA) in recent years. This unprecedented change of SIA is diagnosed to be primarily caused by an apparent sudden increase in sea ice concentrations within the ice pack, especially in the area of the most-concentrated ice (greater than 95% concentration). A series of alternative satellite-derived records do not display any abnormal sudden SIA changes, but do reveal substantial discrepancies between different satellite sensors and sea ice algorithms. Sea ice concentrations in the central ice pack and SIA values derived from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSRE) are consistently greater than those derived from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI). A switch in source data from the SSMI to AMSRE in mid-2009 explains most of the SIA increase in all three affected data sets. If uncorrected for, the discontinuity artificially exaggerates the winter Antarctic SIA increase (1979–2010) by more than a factor of 2 and the spring trend by almost a factor of 4. The discontinuity has a weaker influence on the summer and autumn SIA trends, on calculations of Antarctic sea ice extent, and in the Arctic

The impact of mild hypercholesterolemia on injury repair in the rat patellar tendon

Hypercholesterolemia is associated with tendon pathology and injury prevalence. Lipids can accumulate in the tendon's extracellular spaces, which may disrupt its hierarchical structure and the tenocytes physicochemical environment. We hypothesized that the tendon's ability to repair after injury would be attenuated with elevated cholesterol levels, leading to inferior mechanical properties. Fifty wild‐type (sSD) and 50 apolipoprotein E knock‐out rats (ApoE−/− ) were given a unilateral patellar tendon (PT) injury at 12 weeks old; the uninjured limb served as a control. Animals were euthanized at 3‐, 14,‐ or 42‐days postinjury and PT healing was investigated. ApoE−/− serum cholesterol was double that of SD rats (mean: 2.12 vs. 0.99 mg/mL, p < 0.001) and cholesterol level was related to the expression of several genes after injury; notably rats with higher cholesterol demonstrated a blunted inflammatory response. There was little physical evidence of tendon lipid content or differences in injury repair between groups, therefore we were not surprised that tendon mechanical or material properties did not differ between strains. The young age and the mild phenotype of our ApoE−/− rats might explain these findings. Hydroxyproline content was positively related to total blood cholesterol, but this result did not translate to observable biomechanical differences, perhaps due to the narrow range of cholesterol levels observed. Tendon inflammatory and healing activity is modulated at the mRNA level even with a mild hypercholesterolemia. These important initial impacts need to be investigated as they may contribute to the known consequences of cholesterol on tendons in humans

Local and remote controls on observed Arctic warming

Copyright © 2012 American Geophysical UnionThe Arctic is warming two to four times faster than the global average. Debate continues on the relative roles of local factors, such as sea ice reductions, versus remote factors in driving, or amplifying, Arctic warming. This study examines the vertical profile and seasonality of observed tropospheric warming, and addresses its causes using atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The simulations enable the isolation and quantification of the role of three controlling factors of Arctic warming: 1) observed Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea surface temperature (SST) changes; 2) observed remote SST changes; and 3) direct radiative forcing (DRF) due to observed changes in greenhouse gases, ozone, aerosols, and solar output. Local SIC and SST changes explain a large portion of the observed Arctic near-surface warming, whereas remote SST changes explain the majority of observed warming aloft. DRF has primarily contributed to Arctic tropospheric warming in summer

The role of eddies in the Southern Ocean temperature response to the southern annular mode

© Copyright 2009 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or [email protected] role of eddies in modulating the Southern Ocean response to the southern annular mode (SAM) is examined, using an ocean model run at multiple resolutions from coarse to eddy resolving. The high-resolution versions of the model show an increase in eddy kinetic energy that peaks 2–3 yr after a positive anomaly in the SAM index. Previous work has shown that the instantaneous temperature response to the SAM is characterized by predominant cooling south of 45°S and warming to the north. At all resolutions the model captures this temperature response. This response is also evident in the coarse-resolution implementation of the model with no eddy mixing parameterization, showing that eddies do not play an important role in the instantaneous response. On the longer time scales, an intensification of the mesoscale eddy field occurs, which causes enhanced poleward heat flux and drives warming south of the oceanic Polar Front. This warming is of greater magnitude and occurs for a longer period than the initial cooling response. The results demonstrate that this warming is surface intensified and strongest in the mixed layer. Non-eddy-resolving models are unable to capture the delayed eddy-driven temperature response to the SAM. The authors therefore question the ability of coarse-resolution models, such as those commonly used in climate simulations, to accurately represent the full impacts of the SAM on the Southern Ocean

Polar climate change as manifest in atmospheric circulation

Purpose of Review Dynamic manifestations of climate change, i.e. those related to circulation, are less well understood than are thermodynamic, or temperature-related aspects. However, this knowledge gap is narrowing. We review recent progress in understanding the causes of observed changes in polar tropospheric and stratospheric circulation, and in interpreting climate model projections of their future changes. Recent Findings Trends in the annular modes reflect the influences of multiple drivers. In the Northern Hemisphere, there appears to be a "tug-of-war" between the opposing effects of Arctic near-surface warming and tropical upper tropospheric warming, two predominant features of the atmospheric response to increasing greenhouse gases. Future trends in the Southern Hemisphere largely depend on the competing effects of stratospheric ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gases. Summary Human influence on the Antarctic circulation is detectable in the strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex and the poleward shift of the tropospheric westerly winds. Observed Arctic circulation changes cannot be confidently separated from internal atmospheric variability

Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability

The pace of Arctic warming is about double that at lower latitudes – a robust phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA)1. Many diverse climate processes and feedbacks cause AA2-7, including positive feedbacks associated with diminished sea ice6,7. However, the precise contribution of sea-ice loss to AA remains uncertain7,8. Through analyses of both observations and model simulations, we show that the contribution of sea-ice loss to wintertime AA appears dependent on the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results suggest that for the same pattern and amount of sea-ice loss, consequent Arctic warming is larger during the negative PDO phase, relative to the positive phase, leading to larger reductions in the poleward gradient of tropospheric thickness and to more pronounced reductions in the upper-level westerlies. Given the oscillatory nature of the PDO, this relationship has the potential to increase skill in decadal-scale predictability of Arctic and sub-Arctic climate. Our results indicate that Arctic warming in response to the ongoing long-term sea-ice decline9,10 is greater (reduced) during periods of negative (positive) PDO phase. We speculate that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase, if maintained and all other factors being equal, could act to temporarily reduce the pace of wintertime Arctic warming in the near future.J.A.S. was funded by a UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grants NE/J019585/1 and NE/M006123/1. J.A.F. was supported by an NSF/ARCSS grant (1304097) and NASA grant (NNX14AH896). The model simulations were performed on the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service. We thank the NOAA ESRL and Met Office Hadley Centre for provision of observational and reanalysis data sets. We also thank D. Ackerley for helping to diagnose the cause of model crashes, C. Deser for commenting on the manuscript prior to submission, and two anonymous reviewers for constructive criticism

Exploring Mechanisms for Model‐Dependency of the Stratospheric Response to Arctic Warming

The Arctic is estimated to have warmed up to four times faster than the rest of the globe since the 1980s. There is significant interest in understanding the mechanisms by which such warming may impact weather and climate at lower latitudes. One such mechanism is the “stratospheric pathway”; Arctic warming is proposed to induce a wave‐driven weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, which may subsequently impact large‐scale tropospheric circulation. However, recent comprehensive model studies have found systematic differences in both the magnitude and sign of the stratospheric response to Arctic warming. Using a series of idealized model simulations, we show that this response is sensitive to characteristics of the warming and mean polar vortex strength. In all simulations, imposed polar warming amplifies upward wave propagation from the troposphere, consistent with comprehensive models. However, as polar warming strength and depth increases, the region through which waves can propagate is narrowed, inducing wave breaking and deceleration of the flow in the lower stratosphere. Thus, the mid‐stratosphere is less affected, with reduced sudden stratospheric warming frequency for stronger and deeper warming compared to weaker and shallower warming. We also find that the sign of the stratospheric response depends on the mean strength of the vortex, and that the stratospheric response in turn plays a role in the magnitude of the tropospheric jet response. Our results help explain the spread across multimodel ensembles of comprehensive climate models

Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes

Copyright © 2014 Nature Publishing GroupThere has been an ostensibly large number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the past decade [1]. An open question that is critically important for scientists and policy makers is whether any such increase in weather extremes is natural or anthropogenic in origin [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13]. One mechanism proposed to explain the increased frequency of extreme weather events is the amplification of mid-latitude atmospheric planetary waves [14, 15, 16, 17]. Disproportionately large warming in the northern polar regions compared with mid-latitudes—and associated weakening of the north–south temperature gradient—may favour larger amplitude planetary waves [14, 15, 16, 17], although observational evidence for this remains inconclusive [18, 19, 20, 21]. A better understanding of the role of planetary waves in causing mid-latitude weather extremes is essential for assessing the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts of future planetary wave changes. Here we show that months of extreme weather over mid-latitudes are commonly accompanied by significantly amplified quasi-stationary mid-tropospheric planetary waves. Conversely, months of near-average weather over mid-latitudes are often accompanied by significantly attenuated waves. Depending on geographical region, certain types of extreme weather (for example, hot, cold, wet, dry) are more strongly related to wave amplitude changes than others. The findings suggest that amplification of quasi-stationary waves preferentially increases the probabilities of heat waves in western North America and central Asia, cold outbreaks in eastern North America, droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and wet spells in western Asia.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC