Information compression at the turbulent-phase transition in cold atom gases

The statistical properties of physical systems in thermal equilibrium are blatantly different from their far-from-equilibrium counterparts. In the latter, fluctuations often dominate the dynamics and might cluster in ordered patterns in the form of dissipative coherent structures. Here, we study the transition of a cold atomic cloud, driven close to a sharp electronic resonance, from a stable to a turbulent phase. From the atomic density distribution -- measured using a spatially-resolved pump-probe technique -- we have computed the Shannon entropy on two different basis sets. Information compression, corresponding to a minimum in the Shannon entropy, has been observed at criticality, where the system fluctuations organize into high-order (low-entropy) patterns. Being independent of the representation used, this feature is a property shared by a vast class of physical systems undergoing phase transitions.Comment: information compression, turbulent-phase transition, cold atoms, critical opalescence, second-order phase transitio

Prediction of a financial crisis in Latin American companies using the mixed logistic regression model

The development of statistical methods for predicting the financial crisis of a company is a real contribution to scientific research. These methods identify possible adverse financial situations of the companies, through the behavior of their financial indicators. The contribution of this work is to compare the binary classification by different prediction methods of mixed logistic models to predict a future financial crisis in new companies. The results based on an application involving companies from the Argentina, Peru and Chile Stock Exchange showed that all prediction methods were able to predict with high accuracy the financial crisis of the next year.http://chjs.soche.cl/images/vol7n1_2016/chjs-07-01-03.pdfpublishedVersionFil: Giampaoli, Viviana. University of São Paulo. Department of Statistics; Brasil.Fil: Tamura, Karin A. University of São Paulo. Department of Statistics; Brasil.Fil: Caro, Norma P. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina.Fil: Simões de Araujo, Luiz J. University of São Paulo. Faculty of Economics, Administration and Accounting; Brasil.Estadística y Probabilida

Amino acid profiles in older adults with frailty. Secondary analysis from MetaboFrail and BIOSPHERE studies

An altered amino acid metabolism has been described in frail older adults which may contribute to muscle loss and functional decline associated with frailty. In the present investigation, we compared circulating amino acid profiles of older adults with physical frailty and sarcopenia (PF&S, n = 94), frail/pre-frail older adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (F-T2DM, n = 66), and robust non-diabetic controls (n = 40). Partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS–DA) models were built to define the amino acid signatures associated with the different frailty phenotypes. PLS–DA allowed correct classification of participants with 78.2 ± 1.9% accuracy. Older adults with F-T2DM showed an amino acid profile characterized by higher levels of 3-methylhistidine, alanine, arginine, ethanolamine, and glutamic acid. PF&S and control participants were discriminated based on serum concentrations of aminoadipic acid, aspartate, citrulline, cystine, taurine, and tryptophan. These findings suggest that different types of frailty may be characterized by distinct metabolic perturbations. Amino acid profiling may therefore serve as a valuable tool for frailty biomarker discovery

Exact expression for the diffusion propagator in a family of time-dependent anharmonic potentials

We have obtained the exact expression of the diffusion propagator in the time-dependent anharmonic potential $V(x,t)={1/2}a(t)x^2+b\ln x$. The underlying Euclidean metric of the problem allows us to obtain analytical solutions for a whole family of the elastic parameter a(t), exploiting the relation between the path integral representation of the short time propagator and the modified Bessel functions. We have also analyzed the conditions for the appearance of a non-zero flow of particles through the infinite barrier located at the origin (b<0).Comment: RevTex, 19 pgs. Accepted in Physical Review

Standardization of physical measurements in European health examination surveys-experiences from the site visits.

BACKGROUND: Health examination surveys (HESs) provide valuable data on health and its determinants at the population level. Comparison of HES results within and between countries and over time requires measurements which are free of bias due to differences in or adherence to measurement procedures and/or measurement devices. METHODS: In the European HES (EHES) Pilot Project, 12 countries conducted a pilot HES in 2010-11 using standardized measurement protocols and centralized training. External evaluation visits (site visits) were performed by the EHES Reference Centre staff to evaluate the success of standardization and quality of data collection. RESULTS: In general, standardized EHES protocols were followed adequately in all the pilot surveys. Small deviations were observed in the posture of participants during the blood pressure and height measurement; in the use of a tourniquet when drawing blood samples; and in the calibration of measurement devices. Occasionally, problems with disturbing noise from outside or people coming into the room during the measurements were observed. In countries with an ongoing national HES or a long tradition of conducting national HESs at regular intervals, it was more difficult to modify national protocols to fulfil EHES requirements. CONCLUSIONS: The EHES protocols to standardize HES measurements and procedures for collection of blood samples are feasible in cross-country settings. The prerequisite for successful standardization is adequate training. External and internal evaluation activities during the survey fieldwork are also needed to monitor compliance to standards

Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification: results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. METHODS: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. INTERPRETATION: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research

Estimating and comparing incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases by combining GP registry data: the role of uncertainty

Background: Estimates of disease incidence and prevalence are core indicators of public health. The manner in which these indicators stand out against each other provide guidance as to which diseases are most common and what health problems deserve priority. Our aim was to investigate how routinely collected data from different general practitioner registration networks (GPRNs) can be combined to estimate incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases and to explore the role of uncertainty when comparing diseases. Methods. Incidence and prevalence counts, specified by gender and age, of 18 chronic diseases from 5 GPRNs in the Netherlands from the year 2007 were used as input. Generalized linear mixed models were fitted with the GPRN identifier acting as random intercept, and age and gender as explanatory variables. Using predictions of the regression models we estimated the incidence and prevalence for 18 chronic diseases and calculated a stochastic ranking of diseases in terms of incidence and prevalence per 1,000. Results: Incidence was highest for coronary heart disease and prevalence was highest for diabetes if we looked at the point estimates. The between GPRN variance in general was higher for incidence than for prevalence. Since uncertainty intervals were wide for some diseases and overlapped, the ranking of diseases was subject to uncertainty. For incidence shifts in rank of up to twelve positions were observed. For prevalence, most diseases shifted maximally three or four places in rank. Conclusion: Estimates of incidence and prevalence can be obtained by combining data from GPRNs. Uncertainty in the estimates of absolute figures may lead to different rankings of diseases and, hence, should be taken into consideration when comparing disease incidences and prevalences

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421–723) to 853 million (642–1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6–9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4–7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782–3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279–1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082–3583] vs 2336 [2154–2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943–3630] vs 5643 [5057–6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation