Effect of prevention measures on incidence of human listeriosis, France, 1987-1997.

To assess the impact of preventive measures by the food industry, we analyzed food monitoring data as well as trends in the incidence of listeriosis estimated through three independent sources: the National Reference Center of Listeriosis; a laboratory-based active surveillance network; and two consecutive nationwide surveys of public hospital laboratories. From 1987 to 1997, the incidence of listeriosis decreased by an estimated 68%. A substantial reduction in the proportion of Listeria monocytogenes-contaminated products was observed at the retail level. The temporal relationship between prevention measures by the food industry, reduction in L. monocytogenes-contaminated foodstuffs, and reduction in listeriosis incidence suggests a causal relationship and indicates that a substantial part of the reduction in illness is related to prevention efforts

Predicting dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana using climate indicators

Background Dengue fever epidemic dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses. Associations between climate and dengue have been studied around the world, but the results have shown that the impact of the climate can vary widely from one study site to another. In French Guiana, climate-based models are not available to assist in developing an early warning system. This study aims to evaluate the potential of using oceanic and atmospheric conditions to help predict dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana. Methodology/Principal Findings Lagged correlations and composite analyses were performed to identify the climatic conditions that characterized a typical epidemic year and to define the best indices for predicting dengue fever outbreaks during the period 1991-2013. A logistic regression was then performed to build a forecast model. We demonstrate that a model based on summer Equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and Azores High sea-level pressure had predictive value and was able to predict 80% of the outbreaks while incorrectly predicting only 15% of the non-epidemic years. Predictions for 2014-2015 were consistent with the observed non-epidemic conditions, and an outbreak in early 2016 was predicted. Conclusions/Significance These findings indicate that outbreak resurgence can be modeled using a simple combination of climate indicators. This might be useful for anticipating public health actions to mitigate the effects of major outbreaks, particularly in areas where resources are limited and medical infrastructures are generally insufficient

Risk Factors for Hepatitis C Virus Transmission to Health Care Workers after Occupational Exposure: A European Case-Control Study

Background. Additional studies are required to identify risk factors for hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission to health care workers after occupational exposure to HCV. Methods. We conducted a matched case-control study in 5 European countries from 1 January 1991 through 31 December 2002. Case patients were health care workers who experienced seroconversion after percutaneous or mucocutaneous exposure to HCV. Control subjects were HCV-exposed health care workers who did not experience seroconversion and were matched with case patients for center and period of exposure. Results. Sixty case patients and 204 control subjects were included in the study. All case patients were exposed to HCV-infected fluids through percutaneous injuries. The 37 case patients for whom information was available were exposed to viremic source patients. As risk factors for HCV infection, multivariate analysis identified needle placement in a source patient's vein or artery (odds ratio [OR], 100.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.3-1365.7), deep injury (OR, 155.2; 95% CI, 7.1-3417.2), and sex of the health care worker (OR for male vs. female, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.0-10.0). Source patient HCV load was not introduced in the multivariate model. In unmatched univariate analysis, the risk of HCV transmission increased 11-fold for health care workers exposed to source patients with a viral load >6 log10 copies/mL (95% CI, 1.1-114.1), compared with exposures to source patients with a viral load ⩽4 log10 copies/mL. Conclusion. In this study, HCV occupational transmission was found to occur after percutaneous exposures. The risk of HCV transmission after percutaneous exposure increased with deep injuries and procedures involving hollow-bore needle placement in the source patient's vein or artery. These results highlight the need for widespread adoption of needlestick-prevention devices in health care settings, together with other preventive measure

Studies Needed to Address Public Health Challenges of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic: Insights from Modeling

In light of the 2009 influenza pandemic and potential future pandemics, Maria Van Kerkhove and colleagues anticipate six public health challenges and the data needed to support sound public health decision making

Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

Background: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings: We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ~35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in person

A national cross-sectional study among drug-users in France: epidemiology of HCV and highlight on practical and statistical aspects of the design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epidemiology of HCV infection among drug users (DUs) has been widely studied. Prevalence and sociobehavioural data among DUs are therefore available in most countries but no study has taken into account in the sampling weights one important aspect of the way of life of DUs, namely that they can use one or more specialized services during the study period. In 2004–2005, we conducted a national seroepidemiologic survey of DUs, based on a random sampling design using the Generalised Weight Share Method (GWSM) and on blood testing.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional multicenter survey was done among DUs having injected or snorted drugs at least once in their life. We conducted a two stage random survey of DUs selected to represent the diversity of drug use. The fact that DUs can use more than one structure during the study period has an impact on their inclusion probabilities. To calculate a correct sampling weight, we used the GWSM. A sociobehavioral questionnaire was administered by interviewers. Selected DUs were asked to self-collect a fingerprick blood sample on blotting paper.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of all DUs selected, 1462 (75%) accepted to participate. HCV seroprevalence was 59.8% [95% CI: 50.7–68.3]. Of DUs under 30 years, 28% were HCV seropositive. Of HCV-infected DUs, 27% were unaware of their status. In the month prior to interview, 13% of DUs shared a syringe, 38% other injection parapharnelia and 81% shared a crack pipe. In multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with HCV seropositivity were age over 30, HIV seropositivity, having ever injected drugs, opiate substitution treatment (OST), crack use, and precarious housing.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is the first time that blood testing combined to GWSM is applied to a DUs population, which improve the estimate of HCV prevalence. HCV seroprevalence is high, indeed by the youngest DUs. And a large proportion of DUs are not aware of their status. Our multivariate analysis identifies risk factors such as crack consumption and unstable housing.</p