Global-mean marine δ13C and its uncertainty in a glacial state estimate

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Quaternary Science Reviews 125 (2015): 144-159, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.08.010.A paleo-data compilation with 492 δ13C and δ18O observations provides the opportunity to better sample the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and infer its global properties, such as the mean δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon. Here, the paleocompilation is used to reconstruct a steady-state water-mass distribution for the LGM, that in turn is used to map the data onto a 3D global grid. A global-mean marine δ13C value and a self-consistent uncertainty estimate are derived using the framework of state estimation (i.e., combining a numerical model and observations). The LGM global-mean δ13C is estimated to be 0:14h±0:20h at the two standard error level, giving a glacial-to-modern change of 0:32h±0:20h. The magnitude of the error bar is attributed to the uncertain glacial ocean circulation and the lack of observational constraints in the Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans. Observations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans generally have 10 times the weight of an Atlantic point in the computation of the global mean. To halve the error bar, roughly four times more observations are needed, although strategic sampling may reduce this number. If dynamical constraints can be used to better characterize the LGM circulation, the error bar can also be reduced to 0:05 to 0:1h, emphasizing that knowledge of the circulation is vital to accurately map δ13CDIC in three dimensions.GG is supported by NSF grants OIA-1124880 and OCE-1357121, the WHOI Ocean and Climate Change Institute, and The Joint Initiative Awards Fund from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation

Studies of the quality and cost-effectiveness of a novel concept of open-die forged powerplant main shaft

An innovatory concept of open-die forging of windmill main shaft is described. Comparative study of the new technology based on the concept of cogging hollow shaft on mandrel featuring material savings and higher quality of a finished part versus traditional production chain of this component is presented, indicating benefits and technological setbacks of industrial implementation. Results of industrial sampling aided with numerical simulation form guidelines for technological realization

Unsupervised classification reveals new evolutionary pathways

While we already seem to have a general scenario of the evolution of different types of galaxies, a complete and satisfactory understanding of the processes that led to the formation of all the variety of today's galaxy types is still beyond our reach. To solve this problem, we need both large datasets reaching high redshifts and novel methodologies for dealing with them. The VIPERS survey statistical power, which observed $\sim90,000$ galaxies at $z > 0.5$, and the application of an unsupervised clustering algorithm allowed us to distinguish 12 galaxy classes. Studies of their environmental dependence indicate that this classification may actually reflect different galaxy evolutionary paths. For instance, a class of the most passive red galaxies gathers galaxies $\sim20\%$ smaller than other red galaxies of a similar stellar mass, revealing the first sample of red nuggets at intermediate redshift. On the other end, a class of blue dwarf galaxies is composed mainly of AGN, challenging commonly used mid-infrared AGN selections.Comment: Accepted for publication in the ML4ASTRO (ICML 2022) proceeding boo

Bayesian model selection for the glacial-interglacial cycle

A prevailing viewpoint in paleoclimate science is that a single paleoclimate record contains insufficient information to discriminate between typical competing explanatory models. Here we show that by using SMC 2 (sequential Monte Carlo squared) combined with novel Brownian bridge type proposals for the state trajectories, it is possible to estimate Bayes factors to sufficient accuracy to be able to select between competing models, even with relatively short time series. The results show that Monte Carlo methodology and computer power have now advanced to the point where a full Bayesian analysis for a wide class of conceptual climate models is now possible. The results also highlight a problem with estimating the chronology of the climate record prior to further statistical analysis, a practice which is common in paleoclimate science. Using two datasets based on the same record but with different estimated chronologies, results in conflicting conclusions about the importance of the astronomical forcing on the glacial cycle, and about the internal dynamics generating the glacial cycle, even though the difference between the two estimated chronologies is consistent with dating uncertainty. This highlights a need for chronology estimation and other inferential questions to be addressed in a joint statistical procedure

Climate Noise Influences Ice Sheet Mean State

Evidence from proxy records indicates that millennial‐scale abrupt climate shifts, called Dansgaard‐Oeschger events, happened during past glacial cycles. Various studies have been conducted to uncover the physical mechanism behind them, based on the assumption that climate mean state determines the variability. However, our study shows that the Dansgaard‐Oeschger events can regulate the mean state of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Sensitivity experiments show that the simulated mean state is influenced by the amplitude of the climatic noise. The most likely cause of this phenomenon is the nonlinear response of the surface mass balance to temperature. It could also cause the retreat processes to be faster than the buildup processes within a glacial cycle. We propose that the climate variability hindered ice sheet development and prevented the Earth system from entering a full glacial state from Marine Isotope Stage 4 to Marine Isotope Stage 3 about 60,000 years ago

Benthic foraminiferal stable carbon isotope constraints on deglacial ocean circulation and carbon-cycle changes

How does deep-ocean circulation influence atmospheric CO2 across deglacial transitions? Although biogeochemical and physical processes complicate interpretation of foraminiferal stable carbon isotope data, these complications can be addressed with expanded data compilations, multiproxy approaches, and model-data assimilation efforts.Fil: Peterson, Carlye D.. University of California Riverside; Estados UnidosFil: Gebbie, G.. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; Estados UnidosFil: Lisiecki, L. E.. University of California Santa Barbara; Estados UnidosFil: Lynch Stieglitz, J.. School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Oppo, D.. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; Estados UnidosFil: Muglia, Juan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos; ArgentinaFil: Repschläger, Janne. Max Planck Institute for Chemistry; AlemaniaFil: Schmittner, A.. University of Oregon; Estados Unido

A persistent Norwegian Atlantic Current through the Pleistocene glacials

Changes in ocean‐circulation regimes in the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas may affect not only the Arctic but potentially hemispheric or even global climate. Therefore, unraveling the long‐term evolution of the North Atlantic Current‐Norwegian Atlantic Current system through the Pleistocene glaciations could yield useful information and climatological context for understanding contemporary changes. In this work, ~50,000 km2 of 3‐D seismic reflection data are used to investigate the Pleistocene stratigraphy for evidence of paleo‐oceanographic regimes on the mid‐Norwegian margin since 2.58 Ma. Across 33 semicontinuous regional paleo‐seafloor surfaces ~17,500 iceberg scours have been mapped. This mapping greatly expands our spatiotemporal understanding of currents and iceberg presence in the eastern Nordic Seas. The scours display a dominant southwest‐northeast trend that complements previous sedimentological and numerical modeling studies that suggest northward‐flowing currents in the Norwegian Sea during the Pleistocene. This paleo‐oceanographic study suggests that through many of the Pleistocene glaciations, the location of surface ocean currents in the Norwegian Sea and, by extension, the eastern North Atlantic, were broadly similar to the present

Auxetic foam for snowsport safety devices

Skiing and snowboarding are popular snow-sports with inherent risk of injury. There is potential to reduce the prevalence of injuries by improving and implementing snow-sport safety devices with the application of advanced materials. This paper investigates the application of auxetic foam to snow-sport safety devices. Composite pads - consisting of foam covered with a semi-rigid shell - were investigated as a simple model of body armour and a large 70 x 355 x 355 mm auxetic foam sample was fabricated as an example crash barrier. The thermo-mechanical conversion process was applied to convert open-cell polyurethane foam to auxetic foam. The composite pad with auxetic foam absorbed around three times more energy than the conventional equivalent under quasi-static compression with a concentrated load, indicating potential for body armour applications. An adapted thermo-mechanical process - utilising through-thickness rods to control in-plane compression - was applied to fabricate the large sample with relatively consistent properties throughout, indicating further potential for fabrication of a full size auxetic crash barrier. Further work will create full size prototypes of snow-sport safety devices with comparative testing against current products