A Fast Algorithm for Robust Regression with Penalised Trimmed Squares

The presence of groups containing high leverage outliers makes linear regression a difficult problem due to the masking effect. The available high breakdown estimators based on Least Trimmed Squares often do not succeed in detecting masked high leverage outliers in finite samples. An alternative to the LTS estimator, called Penalised Trimmed Squares (PTS) estimator, was introduced by the authors in \cite{ZiouAv:05,ZiAvPi:07} and it appears to be less sensitive to the masking problem. This estimator is defined by a Quadratic Mixed Integer Programming (QMIP) problem, where in the objective function a penalty cost for each observation is included which serves as an upper bound on the residual error for any feasible regression line. Since the PTS does not require presetting the number of outliers to delete from the data set, it has better efficiency with respect to other estimators. However, due to the high computational complexity of the resulting QMIP problem, exact solutions for moderately large regression problems is infeasible. In this paper we further establish the theoretical properties of the PTS estimator, such as high breakdown and efficiency, and propose an approximate algorithm called Fast-PTS to compute the PTS estimator for large data sets efficiently. Extensive computational experiments on sets of benchmark instances with varying degrees of outlier contamination, indicate that the proposed algorithm performs well in identifying groups of high leverage outliers in reasonable computational time.Comment: 27 page

Environmental Effect on the Associations of Background Quasars with Foreground Objects: II. Numerical Simulations

Using numerical simulations of cluster formation in the standard CDM model (SCDM) and in a low-density, flat CDM model with a cosmological constant (LCDM), we investigate the gravitational lensing explanation for the reported associations between background quasars and foreground clusters. Under the thin-lens approximation and the unaffected background hypothesis , we show that the recently detected quasar overdensity around clusters of galaxies on scales of $\sim10$ arcminutes cannot be interpreted as a result of the gravitational lensing by cluster matter and/or by their environmental and projected matter along the line of sight, which is consistent with the analytical result based on the observed cluster and galaxy correlations (Wu, et al. 1996). It appears very unlikely that uncertainties in the modeling of the gravitational lensing can account for the disagreement between the theoretical predictions and the observations. We conclude that either the detected signal of the quasar-cluster associations is a statistical fluke or the associations are are generated by mechanisms other than the magnification bias.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input to a regional-scale wheat simulation model over India to examine future yields. This model configuration accounted for uncertainty in climate, planting date, optimization, temperature-induced changes in development rate and reproduction. It also accounts for lethal temperatures, which have been somewhat neglected to date. Using uncertainty decomposition, we found that fractional uncertainty due to temperature-driven processes in the crop model was on average larger than climate model uncertainty (0.56 versus 0.44), and that the crop model uncertainty is dominated by crop development. Simulations with the raw compared to the bias-corrected climate data did not agree on the impact on future wheat yield, nor its geographical distribution. However the method of bias-correction was not an important source of uncertainty. We conclude that bias-correction of climate model data and improved constraints on especially crop development are critical for robust impact predictions

On the Lebesgue measure of Li-Yorke pairs for interval maps

We investigate the prevalence of Li-Yorke pairs for $C^2$ and $C^3$ multimodal maps $f$ with non-flat critical points. We show that every measurable scrambled set has zero Lebesgue measure and that all strongly wandering sets have zero Lebesgue measure, as does the set of pairs of asymptotic (but not asymptotically periodic) points. If $f$ is topologically mixing and has no Cantor attractor, then typical (w.r.t. two-dimensional Lebesgue measure) pairs are Li-Yorke; if additionally $f$ admits an absolutely continuous invariant probability measure (acip), then typical pairs have a dense orbit for $f \times f$. These results make use of so-called nice neighborhoods of the critical set of general multimodal maps, and hence uniformly expanding Markov induced maps, the existence of either is proved in this paper as well. For the setting where $f$ has a Cantor attractor, we present a trichotomy explaining when the set of Li-Yorke pairs and distal pairs have positive two-dimensional Lebesgue measure.Comment: 41 pages, 3 figure

Structure function of the UV variability of Q0957+561

We present a detailed structure function analysis of the UV variability of Q0957+561. From new optical observations, we constructed normalized structure functions of the quasar luminosity at restframe wavelengths of 2100 and 2600 \AA. Old optical records also allow the structure function to be obtained at 2100 \AA, but 10 years ago in the observer's frame. These three structure functions are then compared to predictions of both simple and relatively sophisticated (incorporating two independent variable components) Poissonian models. We do not find clear evidence of a chromatic mechanism of variability. From the recent data, 100-d time-symmetric and 170-d time-asymmetric flares are produced at both restframe wavelengths. Taking into account measurements of time delays and the existence of an EUV/radio jet, reverberation is probably the main mechanism of variability. Thus, two types of EUV/X-ray fluctuations would be generated within or close to the jet and later reprocessed by the disc gas in the two emission rings. The 100-d time-symmetric shots are also responsible for most of the 2100 \AA variability detected in the old experiment. However, there is no evidence of asymmetric shots in the old UV variability. If reverberation is the involved mechanism of variability, this could mean an intermittent production of high-energy asymmetric fluctuations. The old records are also consistent with the presence of very short-lifetime (10 d) symmetric flares, which may represent additional evidence of time evolution. We also discuss the quasar structure that emerges from the variability scenario.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in A&A (based on the brightness records at http://arxiv.org/abs/0810.4619

Habitat filtering determines spatial variation of macroinvertebrate community traits in northern headwater streams

Although our knowledge of the spatial distribution of stream organisms has been increasing rapidly in the last decades, there is still little consensus about trait-based variability of macroinvertebrate communities within and between catchments in near-pristine systems. Our aim was to examine the taxonomic and trait based stability vs. variability of stream macroinvertebrates in three high-latitude catchments in Finland. The collected taxa were assigned to unique trait combinations (UTCs) using biological traits. We found that only a single or a highly limited number of taxa formed a single UTC, suggesting a low degree of redundancy. Our analyses revealed significant differences in the environmental conditions of the streams among the three catchments. Linear models, rarefaction curves and beta-diversity measures showed that the catchments differed in both alpha and beta diversity. Taxon- and trait-based multivariate analyses also indicated that the three catchments were significantly different in terms of macroinvertebrate communities. All these findings suggest that habitat filtering, i.e., environmental differences among catchments, determines the variability of macroinvertebrate communities, thereby contributing to the significant biological differences among the catchments. The main implications of our study is that the sensitivity of trait-based analyses to natural environmental variation should be carefully incorporated in the assessment of environmental degradation, and that further studies are needed for a deeper understanding of trait-based community patterns across near-pristine streams

Palaeomagnetic field intensity measurements from the 2.6 Ga Yandinilling dyke swarm (Western Australia)

SUMMARY Precambrian palaeointensity measurements provide fundamental constraints on the evolution of the deep Earth. Core evolution models predict trends in dipole moment on billion-year timescales that can be tested by palaeomagnetic records. Here, we report new palaeointensity results from the recently identified ∼2.62 Ga Yandinilling dyke swarm of the Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia, and consider them alongside published measurements spanning 500 Myr across the late Archaean to earliest Proterozoic. Rock magnetic and scanning electron microscopy analysis confirm that the magnetic mineralogy is fine-grained magnetite, appearing mostly as exsolved lamellae with ilmenite. Six sites produced acceptable palaeointensity estimates from thermal and microwave IZZI protocol Thellier experiments and from double-heating technique Shaw experiments. These site mean values of 9–26 µT translate to virtual dipole moments of 11–44 ZAm2 that are considerably lower than today's dipole moment of ∼80 ZAm2 and the value predicted for this time period by some thermal evolution models. Their average (median = 41 ZAm2) is, however, similar to the long-term average during both of the intervals 2300–2800 Ma (median = 44 ZAm2; N = 103) and 10–500 Ma (median 41 ZAm2; N = 997). While there is little evidence for a substantial net change in average dipole moment between the late Archaean and Phanerozoic, there is preliminary evidence that its variance has increased between the two intervals. This lower variance more than two billion years ago supports the idea that the geodynamo, even while not producing a stronger magnetic field, was more stable on average at the Archaean–Proterozoic transition than it is today.</jats:p

All-fibre heterogeneously-integrated frequency comb generation using silicon core fibre.

Originally developed for metrology, optical frequency combs are becoming increasingly pervasive in a wider range of research topics including optical communications, spectroscopy, and radio or microwave signal processing. However, application demands in these fields can be more challenging as they require compact sources with a high tolerance to temperature variations that are capable of delivering flat comb spectra, high power per tone, narrow linewidth and high optical signal-to-noise ratio. This work reports the generation of a flat, high power frequency comb in the telecom band using a 17 mm fully-integrated silicon core fibre as a parametric mixer. Our all-fibre, cavity-free source combines the material benefits of planar waveguide structures with the advantageous properties of fibre platforms to achieve a 30 nm bandwidth comb source containing 143 tones with 30 dB OSNR over the entire spectral region

Increased Programmed Death-1 Molecule Expression in Cytomegalovirus Disease and Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation

To study the role of the programmed death-1 molecule (PD-1) in cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection and disease after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), 206 subjects were followed prospectively for immune response to CMV and assigned to 3 groups based on CMV outcome. The subjects were analyzed retrospectively for PD-1 expression in cryopreserved CD4+ and CD8+T cells collected at days 40, 90, 120, 150, 180, and 360 posttransplantation. HCT recipients with CMV disease (n=14) were compared with recipients with prolonged CMV infection, but no CMV disease (median duration of infection, 3 months; n=14) and with controls with no CMV infection who received similar transplants (n=22). The CMV disease group had a significantly higher mean fluorescein intensity of PD-1 in CD4+ (P < .05) and CD8+ (P < .05) lymphocytes at all time points studied. PD-1 expression also was significantly elevated in those with severe acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD), including the no-viremia group. The data suggest that PD-1 is induced by aGVHD even in the absence of CMV infection. This enhanced PD-1 expression during severe aGVHD and with CMV reactivation could explain the known role of aGVHD as a risk factor for CMV disease