Решение оптимизационных задач для систем массового обслуживання с отказами в условиях неопределенности

Построены математические модели расчета показателей качества функционирования вычислительных сетей, которые можно представить в виде сетей массового обслуживания с отказами. Сформулированы задачи оптимизации показателей качества функционирования таких сетей при заданных ограничениях на максимальную пропускную способность каналов связи и на выделяемые для модернизации сети ресурсы. Построены алгоритмы, которые позволяют решать поставленные оптимизационные задачи в рамках оговоренных ограничений

Predicting Landscape-Genetic Consequences of Habitat Loss, Fragmentation and Mobility for Multiple Species of Woodland Birds

Inference concerning the impact of habitat fragmentation on dispersal and gene flow is a key theme in landscape genetics. Recently, the ability of established approaches to identify reliably the differential effects of landscape structure (e.g. land-cover composition, remnant vegetation configuration and extent) on the mobility of organisms has been questioned. More explicit methods of predicting and testing for such effects must move beyond post hoc explanations for single landscapes and species. Here, we document a process for making a priori predictions, using existing spatial and ecological data and expert opinion, of the effects of landscape structure on genetic structure of multiple species across replicated landscape blocks. We compare the results of two common methods for estimating the influence of landscape structure on effective distance: least-cost path analysis and isolation-by-resistance. We present a series of alternative models of genetic connectivity in the study area, represented by different landscape resistance surfaces for calculating effective distance, and identify appropriate null models. The process is applied to ten species of sympatric woodland-dependant birds. For each species, we rank a priori the expectation of fit of genetic response to the models according to the expected response of birds to loss of structural connectivity and landscape-scale tree-cover. These rankings (our hypotheses) are presented for testing with empirical genetic data in a subsequent contribution. We propose that this replicated landscape, multi-species approach offers a robust method for identifying the likely effects of landscape fragmentation on dispersal

Invading and expanding : range dynamics and ecological consequences of the Greater White-Toothed Shrew (Crocidura russula) invasion in Ireland

Establishing how invasive species impact upon pre-existing species is a fundamental question in ecology and conservation biology. The greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula) is an invasive species in Ireland that was first recorded in 2007 and which, according to initial data, may be limiting the abundance/distribution of the pygmy shrew (Sorex minutus), previously Ireland’s only shrew species. Because of these concerns, we undertook an intensive live-trapping survey (and used other data from live-trapping, sightings and bird of prey pellets/nest inspections collected between 2006 and 2013) to model the distribution and expansion of C. russula in Ireland and its impacts on Ireland’s small mammal community. The main distribution range of C. russula was found to be approximately 7,600 km2 in 2013, with established outlier populations suggesting that the species is dispersing with human assistance within the island. The species is expanding rapidly for a small mammal, with a radial expansion rate of 5.5 km/yr overall (2008–2013), and independent estimates from live-trapping in 2012–2013 showing rates of 2.4–14.1 km/yr, 0.5–7.1 km/yr and 0–5.6 km/yr depending on the landscape features present. S. minutus is negatively associated with C. russula. S. minutus is completely absent at sites where C. russula is established and is only present at sites at the edge of and beyond the invasion range of C. russula. The speed of this invasion and the homogenous nature of the Irish landscape may mean that S. minutus has not had sufficient time to adapt to the sudden appearance of C. russula. This may mean the continued decline/disappearance of S. minutus as C. russula spreads throughout the island

Predicting the deleterious effects of mutation load in fragmented populations.

Human-induced habitat fragmentation constitutes a major threat to biodiversity. Both genetic and demographic factors combine to drive small and isolated populations into extinction vortices. Nevertheless, the deleterious effects of inbreeding and drift load may depend on population structure, migration patterns, and mating systems and are difficult to predict in the absence of crossing experiments. We performed stochastic individual-based simulations aimed at predicting the effects of deleterious mutations on population fitness (offspring viability and median time to extinction) under a variety of settings (landscape configurations, migration models, and mating systems) on the basis of easy-to-collect demographic and genetic information. Pooling all simulations, a large part (70%) of variance in offspring viability was explained by a combination of genetic structure (F(ST)) and within-deme heterozygosity (H(S)). A similar part of variance in median time to extinction was explained by a combination of local population size (N) and heterozygosity (H(S)). In both cases the predictive power increased above 80% when information on mating systems was available. These results provide robust predictive models to evaluate the viability prospects of fragmented populations

Demogenetics in metapopulations

SUMMARY : Human-induced habitat fragmentation constitutes a major threat to biodiversity. Small and isolated populations suffer from increased stochasticity and from limited rescue effects. These two factors may be sufficient to cause local extinctions but fragmentation induces some genetic consequences that can also contribute significantly to extinction risks. Increased genetic drift reduces the effectiveness of selection against deleterious mutations, leading to their progressive accumulation. Drift also decreases both the standing genetic variation and the rate of fixation of beneficial mutations, limiting the evolutionary potential of isolated populations. Demography and genetics further interact and feed back on each other, progressively driving fragmented populations into "extinction vortices". The aim of the thesis was to better understand the processes occurring in fragmented populations. For this, I combined simulation studies and empirical data from three species that live in structured habitats. Chapter 1 and 2 investigate the demography of two shrew species in fragmented habitats. I showed that connectivity and habitat quality strongly affect the demography of the greater white-tooted shrew, although demographic stochasticity was extremely high. I also demonstrated that habitat fragmentation is one of the leading factors allowing the local coexistence of two competing shrew species. Chapter 3 and 4 focus on measuring connectivity in fragmented populations based on genetic data. In particular, I showed that genetic data can be used to detect the landscape elements impeding dispersal. In Chapter 5 that deals with the accumulation of deleterious mutations in fragmented populations, I demonstrated that mutation accumulation, as well a time to extinction, can be predicted from simple demographic and genetic measures. In the last two chapters, I monitored individual reproductive success in an isolated tree frogs population. These data allowed quantifying the effective population size, a measure closely linked to population evolutionary potential. To conclude, this thesis brings some new insights into the processes occurring in fragmented populations, and I hope it will contribute to the improvement of the management and conservation of fragmented populations

A sex-specific marker reveals male heterogamety in European tree frogs.

Most amphibians examined so far show undifferentiated sex chromosomes. The heterogametic sex's identity, usually revealed through indirect means, often varies among closely related species or even populations (as do sex-linkage groups), suggesting great evolutionary instability of the sex-determining genes. Here we take advantage of a sex-specific marker that amplifies in several related species of European tree frogs (Hyla arborea group) to disclose a homogeneous pattern of male heterogamety. Besides relevance for evolutionary studies of sex determination in amphibians, our results have potential for addressing practical issues in conservation biology because sex reversal by anthropogenic endocrine disruptors is considered one possible cause of amphibian decline

Opportunity for sexual selection and effective population size in the lek-breeding European treefrog (Hyla arborea).

Sexual selection in lek-breeding species might drastically lower male effective population size, with potentially important consequences for evolutionary and conservation biology. Using field-monitoring and parental-assignment methods, we analyzed sex-specific variances in breeding success in a population of European treefrogs, to (1) help understanding the dynamics of genetic variance at sex-specific loci, and (2) better quantify the risk posed by genetic drift in this species locally endangered by habitat fragmentation. The variance in male mating success turned out to be markedly lower than values obtained from other amphibian species with polygamous mating systems. The ratio of effective breeding size to census breeding size was only slightly lower in males (0.44) than in females (0.57), in line with the patterns of genetic diversity previously reported from H. arborea sex chromosomes. Combining our results with data on age at maturity and adult survival, we show that the negative effect of the mating system is furthermore compensated by the effect of delayed maturity, so that the estimated instantaneous effective size broadly corresponded to census breeding size. We conclude that the lek-breeding system of treefrogs impacts only weakly the patterns of genetic diversity on sex-linked genes and the ability of natural populations to resist genetic drift

Mass effects mediate coexistence in competing shrews.

Recent developments in metacommunity theory have raised awareness that processes occurring at regional scales might interfere with local dynamics and affect conditions for the local coexistence of competing species. Four main paradigms are recognized in this context (namely, neutral, patch-dynamics, species-sorting, and mass-effect), which differ according to the role assigned to ecological or life-history differences among competing species, as well as to the relative time scale of regional vs. local dynamics. We investigated the patterns of regional and local coexistence of two species of shrews (Crocidura russula and Sorex coronatus) sharing a similar diet (generalist insectivores) over four generations, in a spatially structured habitat at the altitudinal limit of their distributions. Local populations were small, and regional dynamics were strong, with high rates of extinction and recolonization. Niche analysis revealed significant habitat differentiation on a few important variables, including temperature and availability of winter resting sites. In sites suitable for both species, we found instances of local coexistence with no evidence of competitive exclusion. Patterns of temporal succession did not differ from random, with no suggestion of a colonization-competition trade-off. Altogether, our data provide support for the mass-effect paradigm, where regional coexistence is mediated by specialization on different habitat types, and local coexistence by rescue effects from source sites. The strong regional dynamics and demographic stochasticity, together with high dispersal rates, presumably contributed to mass effects by overriding local differences in specific competitive abilities

Habitat-quality effects on metapopulation dynamics in greater white-toothed shrews, Crocidura russula.

The effects of patch size and isolation on metapopulation dynamics have received wide empirical support and theoretical formalization. By contrast, the effects of patch quality seem largely underinvestigated, partly due to technical difficulties in properly assessing quality. Here we combine habitat-quality modeling with four years of demographic monitoring in a metapopulation of greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) to investigate the role of patch quality on metapopulation processes. Together, local patch quality and connectivity significantly enhanced local population sizes and occupancy rates (R2 = 14% and 19%, respectively). Accounting for the quality of patches connected to the focal one and acting as potential sources improved slightly the model explanatory power for local population sizes, pointing to significant source-sink dynamics. Local habitat quality, in interaction with connectivity, also increased colonization rate (R2 = 28%), suggesting the ability of immigrants to target high-quality patches. Overall, patterns were best explained when assuming a mean dispersal distance of 800 m, a realistic value for the species under study. Our results thus provide evidence that patch quality, in interaction with connectivity, may affect major demographic processes