How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002

International audienceMultiple proxy records (tree-ring, coral, ice and documentary) were examined to isolate ENSO signals associated with both phases of the phenomenon for the period A.D. 1525-2002. To avoid making large-scale inferences from single proxy analysis, regional signals were aggregated into a network of high-resolution records, revealing large-scale trends in the frequency, magnitude and duration of pre-instrumental ENSO using novel applications of percentile analysis. Here we use the newly introduced coupled ocean-atmosphere ENSO index (CEI) as a baseline for the calibration of proxy records. The reconstruction revealed 83 extreme or very strong ENSO episodes since A.D. 1525, expanding considerably on existing ENSO event chronologies. Significantly, excerpts of the most comprehensive list of La Niña events complied to date are presented, indicating peak activity during the 16th to mid 17th and 20th centuries. Although extreme events are seen throughout the 478-year reconstruction, 43% of the extreme ENSO events noted since A.D. 1525 occur during the 20th century, with an obvious bias towards enhanced El Niño conditions in recent decades. Of the total number of extreme event years reconstructed, 30% of all reconstructed ENSO event years occur post-1940 alone suggesting that recent ENSO variability appears anomalous in the context of the past five centuries

Water Cycle Changes

This chapter assesses multiple lines of evidence to evaluate past, present and future changes in the global water cycle. It complements material in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 on observed and projected changes in the water cycle, and Chapters 10 and 11 on regional climate change and extreme events. The assessment includes the physical basis for water cycle changes, observed changes in the water cycle and attribution of their causes, future projections and related key uncertainties, and the potential for abrupt change. Paleoclimate evidence, observations, reanalyses and global and regional model simulations are considered. The assessment shows widespread, nonuniform human-caused alterations of the water cycle, which have been obscured by a competition between different drivers across the 20th century and that will be increasingly dominated by greenhouse gas forcing at the global scale

GRFS and CRFS in alternative donor hematopoietic cell transplantation for pediatric patients with acute leukemia.

We report graft-versus-host disease (GVHD)-free relapse-free survival (GRFS) (a composite end point of survival without grade III-IV acute GVHD [aGVHD], systemic therapy-requiring chronic GVHD [cGVHD], or relapse) and cGVHD-free relapse-free survival (CRFS) among pediatric patients with acute leukemia (n = 1613) who underwent transplantation with 1 antigen-mismatched (7/8) bone marrow (BM; n = 172) or umbilical cord blood (UCB; n = 1441). Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards models. To account for multiple testing, P \u3c .01 for the donor/graft variable was considered statistically significant. Clinical characteristics were similar between UCB and 7/8 BM recipients, because most had acute lymphoblastic leukemia (62%), 64% received total body irradiation-based conditioning, and 60% received anti-thymocyte globulin or alemtuzumab. Methotrexate-based GVHD prophylaxis was more common with 7/8 BM (79%) than with UCB (15%), in which mycophenolate mofetil was commonly used. The univariate estimates of GRFS and CRFS were 22% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16-29) and 27% (95% CI, 20-34), respectively, with 7/8 BM and 33% (95% CI, 31-36) and 38% (95% CI, 35-40), respectively, with UCB (P \u3c .001). In multivariate analysis, 7/8 BM vs UCB had similar GRFS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.12; 95% CI, 0.87-1.45; P = .39), CRFS (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.82-1.38; P = .66), overall survival (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.80-1.44; P = .66), and relapse (HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.03-2.02; P = .03). However, the 7/8 BM group had a significantly higher risk for grade III-IV aGVHD (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.16-2.48; P = .006) compared with the UCB group. UCB and 7/8 BM groups had similar outcomes, as measured by GRFS and CRFS. However, given the higher risk for grade III-IV aGVHD, UCB might be preferred for patients lacking matched donors. © 2019 American Society of Hematology. All rights reserved

An evaluation of the performance of the twentieth century reanalysis version 3

The performance of a new historical reanalysis, the NOAA–CIRES–DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), is evaluated via comparisons with other reanalyses and independent observations. This dataset provides global, 3-hourly estimates of the atmosphere from 1806 to 2015 by assimilating only surface pressure observations and prescribing sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and radiative forcings. Comparisons with independent observations, other reanalyses, and satellite products suggest that 20CRv3 can reliably produce atmospheric estimates on scales ranging from weather events to long-term climatic trends. Not only does 20CRv3 recreate a ‘‘best estimate’’ of the weather, including extreme events, it also provides an estimate of its confidence through the use of an ensemble. Surface pressure statistics suggest that these confidence estimates are reliable. Comparisons with independent upper-air observations in the Northern Hemisphere demonstrate that 20CRv3 has skill throughout the twentieth century. Upper-air fields from 20CRv3 in the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century correlate well with full-input reanalyses, and the correlation is predicted by the confidence fields from 20CRv3. The skill of analyzed 500-hPa geopotential heights from 20CRv3 for 1979–2015 is comparable to that of modern operational 3–4-day forecasts. Finally, 20CRv3 performs well on climate time scales. Long time series and multidecadal averages of mass, circulation, and precipitation fields agree well with modern reanalyses and station- and satellite-based products. 20CRv3 is also able to capture trends in tropospheric-layer temperatures that correlate well with independent products in the twentieth century, placing recent trends in a longer historical context.The research work of R. Przybylak and P. Wyszynski was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland (Grants DEC-2012/07/B/ST10/04002 and 2015/19/B/ST10/02933)

The 1780s: global climate anomalies, floods, droughts, and famines

This handbook offers the first comprehensive, state-of-the-field guide to past weather and climate and their role in human societies. Bringing together dozens of international specialists from the sciences and humanities, this volume describes the methods, sources, and major findings of historical climate reconstruction and impact research. Its chapters take the reader through each key source of past climate and weather information and each technique of analysis; through each historical period and region of the world; through the major topics of climate and history and core case studies; and finally through the history of climate ideas and science. Using clear, non-technical language, The Palgrave Handbook of Climate History serves as a textbook for students, a reference guide for specialists and an introduction to climate history for scholars and interested readers

An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3

The performance of a new historical reanalysis, the NOAA–CIRES–DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), is evaluated via comparisons with other reanalyses and independent observations. This dataset provides global, 3-hourly estimates of the atmosphere from 1806 to 2015 by assimilating only surface pressure observations and prescribing sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and radiative forcings. Comparisons with independent observations, other reanalyses, and satellite products suggest that 20CRv3 can reliably produce atmospheric estimates on scales ranging from weather events to long-term climatic trends. Not only does 20CRv3 recreate a “best estimate” of the weather, including extreme events, it also provides an estimate of its confidence through the use of an ensemble. Surface pressure statistics suggest that these confidence estimates are reliable. Comparisons with independent upper-air observations in the Northern Hemisphere demonstrate that 20CRv3 has skill throughout the twentieth century. Upper-air fields from 20CRv3 in the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century correlate well with full-input reanalyses, and the correlation is predicted by the confidence fields from 20CRv3. The skill of analyzed 500-hPa geopotential heights from 20CRv3 for 1979–2015 is comparable to that of modern operational 3–4-day forecasts. Finally, 20CRv3 performs well on climate time scales. Long time series and multidecadal averages of mass, circulation, and precipitation fields agree well with modern reanalyses and station- and satellite-based products. 20CRv3 is also able to capture trends in tropospheric-layer temperatures that correlate well with independent products in the twentieth century, placing recent trends in a longer historical context

Climate indices in historical climate reconstructions: a global state of the art

Narrative evidence contained within historical documents and inscriptions provides an important record of climate variability for periods prior to the onset of systematic meteorological data collection. A common approach used by historical climatologists to convert such qualitative information into continuous quantitative proxy data is through the generation of ordinal-scale climate indices. There is, however, considerable variability in the types of phenomena reconstructed using an index approach and the practice of index development in different parts of the world. This review, written by members of the PAGES (Past Global Changes) CRIAS working group – a collective of climate historians and historical climatologists researching Climate Reconstructions and Impacts from the Archives of Societies – provides the first global synthesis of the use of the index approach in climate reconstruction. We begin by summarising the range of studies that have used indices for climate reconstruction across six continents (Europe, Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Australia) as well as the world's oceans. We then outline the different methods by which indices are developed in each of these regions, including a discussion of the processes adopted to verify and calibrate index series, and the measures used to express confidence and uncertainty. We conclude with a series of recommendations to guide the development of future index-based climate reconstructions to maximise their effectiveness for use by climate modellers and in multiproxy climate reconstructions.The meetings that underpinned this article were supported by PAGES (Past Global Changes). The article processing charges for this open-access publication were covered by the Freigeist Fellowship “The Dantean Anomaly (1309–1321)” (funded by the Volkswagen Foundation) and the Education University of Hong Kong

Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships' logbooks, 1815- 1854. Part I: Methodology and Evaluation

The meteorological information found within ships’ logbooks is a unique and fascinating source of data for historical climatology. This study uses wind observations from logbooks covering the period 1815 to 1854 to reconstruct an index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for boreal winter (DJF). Statistically-based reconstructions of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are obtained using two methods: principal component regression (PCR) and composite-plus-scale (CPS). Calibration and validation are carried out over the modern period 1979–2014, assessing the relationship between re-gridded seasonal ERA-Interim reanalysis wind data and the instrumental SOI. The reconstruction skill of both the PCR and CPS methods is found to be high with reduction of error skill scores of 0.80 and 0.75, respectively. The relationships derived during the fitting period are then applied to the logbook wind data to reconstruct the historical SOI. We develop a new method to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructions to using a limited number of observations per season and find that the CPS method performs better than PCR with a limited number of observations. A difference in the distribution of wind force terms used by British and Dutch ships is found, and its impact on the reconstruction assessed. The logbook reconstructions agree well with a previous SOI reconstructed from Jakarta rain day counts, 1830–1850, adding robustness to our reconstructions. Comparisons to additional documentary and proxy data sources are provided in a companion paper