Modelling of the anthropogenic tritium transient and its decay product helium-3 in the Mediterranean Sea using a high-resolution regional model

International audienceThis numerical study provides the first simulation of the anthropogenic tritium invasion and its decay product helium-3 (3 He) in the Mediterranean Sea. The simulation covers the entire tritium (3 H) transient generated by the atmospheric nuclear weapons tests performed in the 1950s and early 1960s and is run till 2011. Tritium, helium-3 and their derived age estimates are particularly suitable for studying intermediate and deep-water ventilation and spreading of water masses at intermediate/deep levels. The simulation is made using a high-resolution regional model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean), in a regional configuration for the Mediterranean Sea called MED12, forced at the surface with prescribed tritium evolution derived from observations. The simulation is compared to measurements of tritium and helium-3 performed along large-scale transects in the Mediterranean Sea during the last few decades on cruises of R/V Meteor: M5/6, M31/1, M44/4, M51/2, M84/3, and R/V Poseidon: 234. The results show that the input function used for the tritium generates a realistic distribution of the main hydrographic features of the Mediterranean Sea circulation. In the eastern basin, the results highlight the weak formation of Adriatic Deep Water in the model, which explains its weak contribution to the Eastern Mediterranean Deep Water (EMDW) in the Ionian sub-basin. It produces a realistic representation of the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) signal, simulating a deep-water formation in the Aegean sub-basin at the beginning of 1993, with a realistic timing of deep-water renewal in the eastern basin

Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios

Persistent, depth-intensified mixing during the Western Mediterranean Transition's initial stages

Piñeiro, S., González-Pola, C., Fernández-Díaz, J. M., Naveira-Garabato, A. C., Sánchez-Leal, R., Puig, P., et al. (2021). Persistent, depth-intensified mixing during the Western Mediterranean Transition's initial stages. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126, e2020JC016535. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016535. © 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.© 2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Major deep-convection activity in the northwestern Mediterranean during winter 2005 triggered the formation of a complex anomalous deep-water structure that substantially modified the properties of the Western Mediterranean deep layers. Since then, evolution of this thermohaline structure, the so-called Western Mediterranean Transition (WMT), has been traced through a regularly sampled hydrographic deep station located on the outer continental slope of Minorca Island. A rapid erosion of the WMT's near-bottom thermohaline signal was observed during 2005–2007. The plausible interpretation of this as local bottom-intensified mixing motivates this study. Here, the evolution of the WMT structure through 2005–2007 is reproduced by means of a one-dimensional diffusion model including double-diffusive mixing that allows vertical variation of the background mixing coefficient and includes a source term to represent the lateral advection of deep-water injections from the convection area. Using an optimization algorithm, a best guess for the depth-dependent background mixing coefficient is obtained for the study period. WMT evolution during its initial stages is satisfactorily reproduced using this simple conceptual model, indicating that strong depth-intensified mixing (K ∞ (z) ≈ 22 × 10−4 m2 s−1; z ⪆ 1,400 dbar) is a valid explanation for the observations. Extensive hydrographic and current observations gathered over the continental slope of Minorca during winter 2018, the first deep-convective winter intensively sampled in the region, provide evidence of topographically localized enhanced mixing concurrent with newly formed dense waters flowing along-slope toward the Algerian sub-basin. This transport-related boundary mixing mechanism is suggested to be a plausible source of the water-mass transformations observed during the initial stages of the WMT off Minorca.CTM2014-54374-R. BES-2015-074316.Versión del editor3,17

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing

Simulated anthropogenic CO₂ storage and acidification of the Mediterranean Sea

International audienceConstraints on the Mediterranean Sea's storage of anthropogenic CO 2 are limited, coming only from data-based approaches that disagree by more than a factor of two. Here we simulate this marginal sea's anthropogenic carbon storage by applying a perturbation approach in a high-resolution regional model. Our model simulates that, between 1800 and 2001, basin-wide CO 2 storage by the Mediterranean Sea has increased by 1.0 Pg C, a lower limit based on the model's weak deep-water ventilation, as revealed by evaluation with CFC-12. Furthermore, by testing a data-based approach (transit time distribution) in our model, comparing simulated anthropogenic CO 2 to values computed from simulated CFC-12 and physical variables, we conclude that the associated basin-wide storage of 1.7 Pg, published previously, must be an upper bound. Out of the total simulated storage of 1.0 Pg C, 75 % comes from the air-sea flux into the Mediterranean Sea and 25 % comes from net transport from the Atlantic across the Strait of Gibraltar. Sensitivity tests indicate that the Mediterranean Sea's higher total alkalinity, relative to the global-ocean mean, enhances the Mediterranean's total inventory of anthropogenic carbon by 10 %. Yet the corresponding average anthropogenic change in surface pH does not differ significantly from the globalocean average, despite higher total alkalinity. In Mediterranean deep waters, the pH change is estimated to be between −0.005 and −0.06 pH units

High-resolution neodymium characterization along the Mediterranean margins and modelling of <i>ε</i>_Nd distribution in the Mediterranean basins

An extensive compilation of published neodymium (Nd) concentrations and isotopic compositions (Nd IC) was realized in order to establish a new database and a map (using a high-resolution geological map of the area) of the distribution of these parameters for all the Mediterranean margins. Data were extracted from different kinds of samples: river solid discharge deposited on the shelf, sedimentary material collected on the margin or geological material outcropping above or close to a margin. Additional analyses of surface sediments were done in order to improve this data set in key areas (e.g. Sicilian strait). <br><br> The Mediterranean margin Nd isotopic signatures vary from non-radiogenic values around the Gulf of Lion, (<i>ε</i>_Nd values  ∼  −11) to radiogenic values around the Aegean and the Levantine sub-basins up to +6. Using a high-resolution regional oceanic model (1/12° of horizontal-resolution), <i>ε</i>_Nd distribution was simulated for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea. <br><br> The high resolution of the model provides a unique opportunity to represent a realistic thermohaline circulation in the basin and thus apprehend the processes governing the Nd isotope distribution in the marine environment. Results are consistent with the preceding conclusions on boundary exchange (BE) as an important process in the Nd oceanic cycle. Nevertheless this approach simulates a too-radiogenic value in the Mediterranean Sea; this bias will likely be corrected once the dust and river inputs will be included in the model. <br><br> This work highlights that a significant interannual variability of <i>ε</i>_Nd distribution in seawater could occur. In particular, important hydrological events such as the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT), associated with deep water formed in the Aegean sub-basin, could induce a shift in <i>ε</i>_Nd at deep/intermediate depths that could be noticeable in the eastern part of the basin. This underlines that the temporal and geographical variations of <i>ε</i>_Nd could represent an interesting insight of Nd as tracer of the Mediterranean Sea circulation, in particular in the context of palaeo-oceanographic applications