Hydrodynamic modelling of the microbial water quality in a drinking water source as input for risk reduction management

To mitigate the faecal contamination of drinking water sources and, consequently, to prevent waterborne disease outbreaks, an estimation of the contribution from different sources to the total faecal contamination at the raw water intake of a drinking water treatment plant is needed. The aim of this article was to estimate how much different sources contributed to the faecal contamination at the water intake in a drinking water source, Lake Rådasjön in Sweden. For this purpose, the fate and transport of faecal indicator Escherichia coli within Lake Rådasjön were simulated by a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The calibrated hydrodynamic model described the measured data on vertical temperature distribution in the lake well (the Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.99). The data on the E. coli load from the identified contamination sources were gathered and the fate and transport of E. coli released from these sources within the lake were simulated using the developed hydrodynamic model, taking the decay of the E. coli into account. The obtained modelling results were compared to the observed E. coli concentrations at the water intake. The results illustrated that the sources that contributed the most to the faecal contamination at the water intake in Lake Rådasjön were the discharges from the on-site sewers and the main inflow to the lake – the river Mölndalsån. Based on the modelling results recommendations for water producers were formulated. The study demonstrated that this modelling approach is a useful tool for estimating the contribution from different sources to the faecal contamination at the water intake of a drinking water treatment plant and provided decision-support information for the reduction of risks posed to the drinking water source

Laboratory Study of Collisionless Magnetic Reconnection

A concise review is given on the past two decades' results from laboratory experiments on collisionless magnetic reconnection in direct relation with space measurements, especially by Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission. Highlights include spatial structures of electromagnetic fields in ion and electron diffusion regions as a function of upstream symmetry and guide field strength; energy conversion and partition from magnetic field to ions and electrons including particle acceleration; electrostatic and electromagnetic kinetic plasma waves with various wavelengths; and plasmoid-mediated multiscale reconnection. Combined with the progress in theoretical, numerical, and observational studies, the physics foundation of fast reconnection in colisionless plasmas has been largely established, at least within the parameter ranges and spatial scales that were studied. Immediate and long-term future opportunities based on multiscale experiments and space missions supported by exascale computation are discussed, including dissipation by kinetic plasma waves, particle heating and acceleration, and multiscale physics across fluid and kinetic scales.Comment: 40 pages, 15 figure

Evaluation of Smiles for Life : a caregiver focused oral health education programme

Background: People with an intellectual and/or developmental disability are at increased risk of adverse oral health outcomes and often require support from caregivers to assist in maintaining or seeking treatment for their oral health needs. However, caregivers and support workers are often family members with limited formal oral health training. Hence, the aim of this pilot study was to review the outcomes of the ‘Smiles for Life’ oral health education workshop with reference to their knowledge, attitudes, and practices of caregivers of people with an intellectual or developmental disability. Methods: A single group pre-test post-test intervention design was used to explore the preliminary effectiveness and appropriateness of the Smiles for Life oral health education workshop. Results: A total of 244 participants completed both the pre and post knowledge test. Oral health literacy scores decreased following the post test. Those with higher levels of education achieved higher post-training knowledge scores. Overall, caregivers reported satisfaction on the material presented however, it could be improved with more practical demonstrations. Conclusion: Providing an oral health education tool that caters to the diverse caregiver audience presents a unique set of challenges, despite oral health education in this professional group being vital. Future studies may benefit from reviewing the efficacy of a more tailored educational intervention

Machine learning can identify newly diagnosed patients with CLL at high risk of infection

Infections have become the major cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) due to immune dysfunction and cytotoxic CLL treatment. Yet, predictive models for infection are missing. In this work, we develop the CLL Treatment-Infection Model (CLL-TIM) that identifies patients at risk of infection or CLL treatment within 2 years of diagnosis as validated on both internal and external cohorts. CLL-TIM is an ensemble algorithm composed of 28 machine learning algorithms based on data from 4,149 patients with CLL. The model is capable of dealing with heterogeneous data, including the high rates of missing data to be expected in the real-world setting, with a precision of 72% and a recall of 75%. To address concerns regarding the use of complex machine learning algorithms in the clinic, for each patient with CLL, CLL-TIM provides explainable predictions through uncertainty estimates and personalized risk factors

When Is a Principal Charged With an Agent’s Knowledge?

Question: Detecting species presence in vegetation and making visual assessment of abundances involve a certain amount of skill, and therefore subjectivity. We evaluated the magnitude of the error in data, and its consequences for evaluating temporal trends. Location: Swedish forest vegetation. Methods: Vegetation data were collected independently by two observers in 342 permanent 100-m2 plots in mature boreal forests. Each plot was visited by one observer from a group of 36 and one of two quality assessment observers. The cover class of 29 taxa was recorded, and presence/absence for an additional 50. Results: Overall, one third of each occurrence was missed by one of the two observers, but with large differences among species. There were more missed occurrences at low abundances. Species occurring at low abundance when present tended to be frequently overlooked. Variance component analyses indicated that cover data on 5 of 17 species had a significant observer bias. Observer-explained variance was < 10% in 15 of 17 species. Conclusion: The substantial number of missed occurrences suggests poor power in detecting changes based on presence/absence data. The magnitude of observer bias in cover estimates was relatively small, compared with random error, and therefore potentially analytically tractable. Data in this monitoring system could be improved by a more structured working model during field work.Original publication: Milberg, P., Bergstedt, J., Fridman, J., Odell, G & Westerberg, L., Systematic and random variation in vegetation monitoring data, 2008, Journal of Vegetation Science, (19), 633-644. http://dx.doi.org/10.3170/2008-8-18423. Copyright: Opulus Press, http://www.opuluspress.se/index.ph

Predicting understory maximum shrubs cover using altitude and overstory basal area in different Mediterranean forests

In some areas of the Mediterranean basin where the understory stratum represents a critical fire hazard, managing the canopy cover to control the understory shrubby vegetation is an ecological alternative to the current mechanical management techniques. In this study, we determine the relationship between the overstory basal area and the cover of the understory shrubby vegetation for different dominant canopy species (Pinaceae and Fagaceae species) along a wide altitudinal gradient in the province of Catalonia (Spain). Analyses were conducted using data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory. At the regional scale, when all stands are analysed together, a strong negative relationship between mean shrub cover and site elevation was found. Among the Pinaceae species, we found fairly good relationships between stand basal area and the maximum development of the shrub stratum for species located at intermediate elevations (Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris). However, at the extremes of the elevationclimatic gradient (Pinus halepensis and Pinus uncinata stands), stand basal area explained very little of the shrub cover variation probably because microsite and topographic factors override its effect. Among the Fagaceae species, a negative relationship between basal area and the maximum development of the shrub stratum was found in Quercus humilis and Fagus sylvatica dominated stands but not in Quercus ilex. This can be due to the particular canopy structure and management history of Q. ilex stands. In conclusion, our study revealed a marked effect of the tree layer composition and the environment on the relationship between the development of the understory and overstory tree structure. More fine-grained studies are needed to provide forest managers with more detailed information about the relationship between these two forest strata

Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: Synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF).

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in sub-arctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies