State and Transition Models in Space and Time – Using STMs to Understand Broad Patterns of Ecosystem Change in Iceland

Managing ecological systems sustainably requires a deep understanding of ecosystem structure and the processes driving their dynamics. Conceptual models can lead to improved management, by providing a framework for organizing knowledge about a system and identifying the causal agents of change. We developed state-and-transition models (STMs) to describe landscape changes in Iceland over three historical periods with different human influence, from pre-settlement to present days. Our models identified the set of possible states, transitions and thresholds in these ecosystems and their changes over time. To illustrate the use of these models for predicting and improving management interventions, we applied our present-day STM to a case study in the central highlands of Iceland and monitored ecosystem changes within an ongoing field experiment with two management interventions (grazing exclusion and fertilization) in areas experiencing contrasting stages of degradation. The results of the experiment broadly align with the predictions of the model and underscore the importance of conceptual frameworks for adaptive management, where the best available knowledge is used to continuously refine and update the models

Environmental pressure from the 2014–15 eruption of Bárðarbunga volcano, Iceland

The effusive six months long 2014-2015 Bárðarbunga eruption (31 August-27 February) was the largest in Iceland for more than 200 years, producing 1.6 ± 0.3 km3 of lava. The total SO2 emission was 11 ± 5 Mt, more than the amount emitted from Europe in 2011. The ground level concentration of SO2 exceeded the 350 μg m−3 hourly average health limit over much of Iceland for days to weeks. Anomalously high SO2 concentrations were also measured at several locations in Europe in September. The lowest pH of fresh snowmelt at the eruption site was 3.3, and 3.2 in precipitation 105 km away from the source. Elevated dissolved H2SO4, HCl, HF, and metal concentrations were measured in snow and precipitation. Environmental pressures from the eruption and impacts on populated areas were reduced by its remoteness, timing, and the weather. The anticipated primary environmental pressure is on the surface waters, soils, and vegetation of Iceland

Genome-wide association and HLA fine-mapping studies identify risk loci and genetic pathways underlying allergic rhinitis

Allergic rhinitis is the most common clinical presentation of allergy, affecting 400 million people worldwide, with increasing incidence in westernized countries1,2. To elucidate the genetic architecture and understand the underlying disease mechanisms, we carried out a meta-analysis of allergic rhinitis in 59,762 cases and 152,358 controls of European ancestry and identified a total of 41 risk loci for allergic rhinitis, including 20 loci not previously associated with allergic rhinitis, which were confirmed in a replication phase of 60,720 cases and 618,527 controls. Functional annotation implicated genes involved in various immune pathways, and fine mapping of the HLA region suggested amino acid variants important for antigen binding. We further performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) analyses of allergic sensitization against inhalant allergens and nonallergic rhinitis, which suggested shared genetic mechanisms across rhinitis-related traits. Future studies of the identified loci and genes might identify novel targets for treatment and prevention of allergic rhinitis

Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow

Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with a collapse of the roof of a crustal magma reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century, and the lack of detailed observations has obscured insight into the mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption.We usemultiparameter geophysical and geochemical data to show that the 110-squarekilometer and 65-meter-deep collapse of Bárdarbunga caldera in 2014-2015 was initiated through withdrawal of magma, and lateral migration through a 48-kilometers-long dike, from a 12-kilometers deep reservoir. Interaction between the pressure exerted by the subsiding reservoir roof and the physical properties of the subsurface flow path explain the gradual, nearexponential decline of both collapse rate and the intensity of the 180-day-long eruption.</p

Hiding in the background: community-level patterns in invertebrate herbivory across the tundra biome

Invertebrate herbivores depend on external temperature for growth and metabolism. Continued warming in tundra ecosystems is proposed to result in increased invertebrate herbivory. However, empirical data about how current levels of invertebrate herbivory vary across the Arctic is limited and generally restricted to a single host plant or a small group of species, so predicting future change remains challenging. We investigated large-scale patterns of invertebrate herbivory across the tundra biome at the community level and explored how these patterns are related to long-term climatic conditions and year-of-sampling weather, habitat characteristics, and aboveground biomass production. Utilizing a standardized protocol, we collected samples from 92 plots nested within 20 tundra sites during summer 2015. We estimated the community-weighted biomass lost based on the total leaf area consumed by invertebrates for the most common plant species within each plot. Overall, invertebrate herbivory was prevalent at low intensities across the tundra, with estimates averaging 0.94% and ranging between 0.02 and 5.69% of plant biomass. Our results suggest that mid-summer temperature influences the intensity of invertebrate herbivory at the community level, consistent with the hypothesis that climate warming should increase plant losses to invertebrates in the tundra. However, most of the observed variation in herbivory was associated with other site level characteristics, indicating that other local ecological factors also play an important role. More details about the local drivers of invertebrate herbivory are necessary to predict the consequences for rapidly changing tundra ecosystems.KeywordsBackground herbivory Biomass loss Climate change Community-weighted average Invertebrate Insects Tundra </div

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all the world’s major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

MAP1B mutations cause intellectual disability and extensive white matter deficit

Publisher's version (útgefin grein). Publisher's note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.Discovery of coding variants in genes that confer risk of neurodevelopmental disorders is an important step towards understanding the pathophysiology of these disorders. Wholegenome sequencing of 31,463 Icelanders uncovers a frameshift variant (E712KfsTer10) in microtubule-associated protein 1B (MAP1B) that associates with ID/low IQ in a large pedigree (genome-wide corrected P = 0.022). Additional stop-gain variants in MAP1B (E1032Ter and R1664Ter) validate the association with ID and IQ. Carriers have 24% less white matter (WM) volume (β = −2.1SD, P = 5.1 × 10−8), 47% less corpus callosum (CC) volume (β = −2.4SD, P = 5.5 × 10−10) and lower brain-wide fractional anisotropy (P = 6.7 × 10−4). In summary, we show that loss of MAP1B function affects general cognitive ability through a profound, brain-wide WM deficit with likely disordered or compromised axons.We are grateful to the participants and we thank the psychologists, nurses and staff, in particular Berglind Eiriksdottir, at the Research Recruitment Center and technicians and staff at Röntgen Domus. We also thank the staff at deCODE genetics core facilities and all our colleagues for their important contribution to this work. L.J. received support from the Swedish Society of Medicine, the Swedish Brain Foundation and Swedish Society for Medical Research. The research leading to these results has received support from the Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking under grant agreements’ no. 115008 (NEWMEDS) and no. 115300 (EUAIMS) of which resources are composed of EFPIA in-kind contribution and financial contribution from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (EU-FP7/2007-2013), EU-FP7 funded grant no. 602450 (IMAGEMEND) and EU funded FP7-People-2011-IAPP grant agreement no. 286213 (PsychDPC).Peer Reviewe

Global maps of soil temperature.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km &lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km &lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications

Cohort Profile: COVIDMENT: COVID-19 cohorts on mental health across six nations

Why were the cohorts set up? With more than 218 million cases and 4.5 million deaths worldwide (Worldometers, 31 August 2021), the COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented influence on the global economy and population health. As a potent global disaster, it is likely to significantly affect the incidence of adverse mental health symptoms and psychiatric disorders, particularly in vulnerable and highly affected populations. The World Health Organization and leading scientific journals have alerted concerning the potential adverse mental health impact of COVID-19 and emphasized the need for multinational research in this area, which additionally provides new insights into disease mechanisms