Ionospheric weather at two Starlink launches during two-phase geomagnetic storms

The launch of a series of Starlink internet satellites on 3 February 2022 (S-36), and 7 July 2022 (S-49), coincided with the development of two-phase geomagnetic storms. The first launch S-36 took place in the middle of the moderate two-phase space weather storm, which induced significant technological consequences. After liftoff on 3 February at 18:13 UT, all Starlink satellites reached an initial altitude of 350 km in perigee and had to reach an altitude of ~550 km after the maneuver. However, 38 of 49 launched spacecrafts did not reach the planned altitude, left orbit due to increased drag and reentered the atmosphere on 8 February. A geomagnetic storm on 3–4 February 2022 has increased the density of the neutral atmosphere up to 50%, increasing drag of the satellites and dooming most of them. The second launch of S-49 at 13:11 UT on 7 July 2022 was successful at the peak of the two-phase geomagnetic storm. The global ionospheric maps of the total electron content (GIM-TEC) have been used to produce the ionospheric weather GIM-W index maps and Global Electron Content (GEC). We observed a GEC increment from 10 to 24% for the storm peak after the Starlink launch at both storms, accompanying the neutral density increase identified earlier. GIM-TEC maps are available with a lag (delay) of 1–2 days (real-time GIMs have a lag less than 15 min), so the GIMs forecast is required by the time of the launch. Comparisons of different GIMs forecast techniques are provided including the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), Beijing (BADG and CASG) and IZMIRAN (JPRG) 1- and 2-day forecasts, and the Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC-ionSAT) forecast for 6, 12, 18, 24 and 48 h in advance. We present the results of the analysis of evolution of the ionospheric parameters during both events. The poor correspondence between observed and predicted GIM-TEC and GEC confirms an urgent need for the industry–science awareness of now-casting/forecasting/accessibility of GIM-TECs during the space weather events.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

GIM-TEC adaptive ionospheric weather assessment and forecast system

The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast (IWAF) system is a computer software package designed to assess and predict the world-wide representation of 3-D electron density profiles from the Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). The unique system products include daily-hourly numerical global maps of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and the peak height (hmF2) generated with the International Reference Ionosphere extended to the plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, upgraded by importing the daily-hourly GIM-TEC as a new model driving parameter. Since GIM-TEC maps are provided with 1- or 2-days latency, the global maps forecast for 1 day and 2 days ahead are derived using an harmonic analysis applied to the temporal changes of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 at 5112 grid points of a map encapsulated in IONEX format (-87.5°:2.5°:87.5°N in latitude, -180°:5°:180°E in longitude). The system provides online the ionospheric disturbance warnings in the global W-index map establishing categories of the ionospheric weather from the quiet state (W=±1) to intense storm (W=±4) according to the thresholds set for instant TEC perturbations regarding quiet reference median for the preceding 7 days. The accuracy of IWAF system predictions of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 maps is superior to the standard persistence model with prediction equal to the most recent ‘true’ map. The paper presents outcomes of the new service expressed by the global ionospheric foF2, hmF2 and W-index maps demonstrating the process of origin and propagation of positive and negative ionosphere disturbances in space and time and their forecast under different scenarios.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Generation of proxy GIM-TEC for extreme storms before the Era of GNSS observations

For the first time, we reconstructed global distribution of both the total electron content disturbance W index and TEC values for eight extreme storms (Dst < -250 nT) occurred before the epoch of GNSS observations in solar cycle 22. We created a model based on superposed epoch analysis of the training set of GIM-W maps of nine SC23 extreme storms. Global GIM-W index maps are calculated from 15-min UPC GIM-TEC (UQRG) as the logarithmic deviation of instantaneous TEC from the monthly median GIMMTEC empirical model. We introduced the storm phase metrics for main and recovery phases of the positive ionosphere disturbance (the WU-index), the negative disturbance (the WL-index) and the ring current (the Dst-index). The probabilistic forecasting model (Pmodel) for SC22 GIM-Wx maps is developed based on GIM-W maps of the SC23 training set. The storm phase distribution Fx for the eight SC22 extreme storms is calculated from the proxy time shift (lag) of peak WUmax and WLmin relative to Dstmin. Proxy GIM-TECx maps are calculated by adjusting the GIM-MTEC median to the GIM-Wx prediction. Validation of the technique based on data of UPC and JPL for four intense ionospheric storms showed a root-mean-square error less than 3 TECU. The proposed technique can be applied for both the past and future forecasting of GIM-W index and GIM-TEC maps.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Near Earth space plasma monitoring under COST 296

This review paper presents the main achievements of the near Earth space plasma monitoring under COST 296 Action. The outputs of the COST 296 community making data, historical and real-time, standardized and available to the ionospheric community for their research, applications and modeling purposes are presented. The contribution of COST 296 with the added value of the validated data made possible a trusted ionospheric monitoring for research and modeling purposes, and it served for testing and improving the algorithms producing real-time data and providing data users measurement uncertainties. These value added data also served for calibration and validation of space-borne sensors. New techniques and parameters have been developed for monitoring the near Earth space plasma, as time dependent 2D maps of vertical total electron content (vTEC), other key ionospheric parameters and activity indices for distinguishing disturbed ionospheric conditions, as well as a technique for improving the discrepancies of different mapping services. The dissemination of the above products has been developed by COST 296 participants throughout the websites making them available on-line for real-time applications

Nowcasting, forecasting and warning for ionospheric propagation: tools and methods

The paper reviews the work done in the course of the COST 271 Action concerned with the development of tools and methods for forecasting, nowcasting and warning of ionospheric propagation conditions. Three broad categories of work are covered. First, the maintenance and enhancement of existing operational services that provide forecast or nowcast data products to end users; brief descriptions of RWC Warsaw and the STIF service are given. Second, the development of prototype or experimental services; descriptions are given of a multi-datasource system for reconstruction of electron density profiles, and a new technique using real-time IMF data to forecast ionospheric storms. The third category is the most wide-ranging, and deals with work that has presented new or improved tools or methods that future operational forecasting or nowcasting system will rely on. This work covers two areas - methods for updating models with prompt data, and improvements in modelling or our understanding of various ionospheric-magnetospheric features - and ranges over updating models of ionospheric characteristics and electron density, modelling geomagnetic storms, describing the spatial evolution of the mid-latitude trough, and validating a recently-proposed technique for deriving TEC from ionosonde observations

The science case for the EISCAT_3D radar

The EISCAT (European Incoherent SCATer) Scientific Association has provided versatile incoherent scatter (IS) radar facilities on the mainland of northern Scandinavia (the EISCAT UHF and VHF radar systems) and on Svalbard (the electronically scanning radar ESR (EISCAT Svalbard Radar) for studies of the high-latitude ionised upper atmosphere (the ionosphere). The mainland radars were constructed about 30 years ago, based on technological solutions of that time. The science drivers of today, however, require a more flexible instrument, which allows measurements to be made from the troposphere to the topside ionosphere and gives the measured parameters in three dimensions, not just along a single radar beam. The possibility for continuous operation is also an essential feature. To facilitatefuture science work with a world-leading IS radar facility, planning of a new radar system started first with an EU-funded Design Study (2005–2009) and has continued with a follow-up EU FP7 EISCAT_3D Preparatory Phase project (2010–2014). The radar facility will be realised by using phased arrays, and a key aspect is the use of advanced software and data processing techniques. This type of software radar will act as a pathfinder for other facilities worldwide. The new radar facility will enable the EISCAT_3D science community to address new, significant science questions as well as to serve society, which is increasingly dependent on space-based technology and issues related to space weather. The location of the radar within the auroral oval and at the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex is also ideal for studies of the long-term variability in the atmosphere and global change. This paper is a summary of the EISCAT_3D science case, which was prepared as part of the EU-funded Preparatory Phase project for the new facility. Three science working groups, drawn from the EISCAT user community, participated in preparing this document. In addition to these working group members, who are listed as authors, thanks are due to many others in the EISCAT scientific community for useful contributions, discussions, and support

The science case for the EISCAT_3D radar

The EISCAT (European Incoherent SCATer) Scientific Association has provided versatile incoherent scatter (IS) radar facilities on the mainland of northern Scandinavia (the EISCAT UHF and VHF radar systems) and on Svalbard (the electronically scanning radar ESR (EISCAT Svalbard Radar) for studies of the high-latitude ionised upper atmosphere (the ionosphere). The mainland radars were constructed about 30 years ago, based on technological solutions of that time. The science drivers of today, however, require a more flexible instrument, which allows measurements to be made from the troposphere to the topside ionosphere and gives the measured parameters in three dimensions, not just along a single radar beam. The possibility for continuous operation is also an essential feature. To facilitatefuture science work with a world-leading IS radar facility, planning of a new radar system started first with an EU-funded Design Study (2005–2009) and has continued with a follow-up EU FP7 EISCAT_3D Preparatory Phase project (2010–2014). The radar facility will be realised by using phased arrays, and a key aspect is the use of advanced software and data processing techniques. This type of software radar will act as a pathfinder for other facilities worldwide. The new radar facility will enable the EISCAT_3D science community to address new, significant science questions as well as to serve society, which is increasingly dependent on space-based technology and issues related to space weather. The location of the radar within the auroral oval and at the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex is also ideal for studies of the long-term variability in the atmosphere and global change. This paper is a summary of the EISCAT_3D science case, which was prepared as part of the EU-funded Preparatory Phase project for the new facility. Three science working groups, drawn from the EISCAT user community, participated in preparing this document. In addition to these working group members, who are listed as authors, thanks are due to many others in the EISCAT scientific community for useful contributions, discussions, and support

Recent Advances in Degradable Hybrids of Biomolecules and NGs for Targeted Delivery

Recently, the fast development of hybrid nanogels dedicated to various applications has been seen. In this context, nanogels incorporating biomolecules into their nanonetworks are promising innovative carriers that gain great potential in biomedical applications. Hybrid nanogels containing various types of biomolecules are exclusively designed for: improved and controlled release of drugs, targeted delivery, improvement of biocompatibility, and overcoming of immunological response and cell self-defense. This review provides recent advances in this rapidly developing field and concentrates on: (1) the key physical consequences of using hybrid nanogels and introduction of biomolecules; (2) the construction and functionalization of degradable hybrid nanogels; (3) the advantages of hybrid nanogels in controlled and targeted delivery; and (4) the analysis of the specificity of drug release mechanisms in hybrid nanogels. The limitations and future directions of hybrid nanogels in targeted specific- and real-time delivery are also discussed