Ionospheric weather at two Starlink launches during two-phase geomagnetic storms

The launch of a series of Starlink internet satellites on 3 February 2022 (S-36), and 7 July 2022 (S-49), coincided with the development of two-phase geomagnetic storms. The first launch S-36 took place in the middle of the moderate two-phase space weather storm, which induced significant technological consequences. After liftoff on 3 February at 18:13 UT, all Starlink satellites reached an initial altitude of 350 km in perigee and had to reach an altitude of ~550 km after the maneuver. However, 38 of 49 launched spacecrafts did not reach the planned altitude, left orbit due to increased drag and reentered the atmosphere on 8 February. A geomagnetic storm on 3–4 February 2022 has increased the density of the neutral atmosphere up to 50%, increasing drag of the satellites and dooming most of them. The second launch of S-49 at 13:11 UT on 7 July 2022 was successful at the peak of the two-phase geomagnetic storm. The global ionospheric maps of the total electron content (GIM-TEC) have been used to produce the ionospheric weather GIM-W index maps and Global Electron Content (GEC). We observed a GEC increment from 10 to 24% for the storm peak after the Starlink launch at both storms, accompanying the neutral density increase identified earlier. GIM-TEC maps are available with a lag (delay) of 1–2 days (real-time GIMs have a lag less than 15 min), so the GIMs forecast is required by the time of the launch. Comparisons of different GIMs forecast techniques are provided including the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), Beijing (BADG and CASG) and IZMIRAN (JPRG) 1- and 2-day forecasts, and the Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC-ionSAT) forecast for 6, 12, 18, 24 and 48 h in advance. We present the results of the analysis of evolution of the ionospheric parameters during both events. The poor correspondence between observed and predicted GIM-TEC and GEC confirms an urgent need for the industry–science awareness of now-casting/forecasting/accessibility of GIM-TECs during the space weather events.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Near Earth space plasma monitoring under COST 296

This review paper presents the main achievements of the near Earth space plasma monitoring under COST 296 Action. The outputs of the COST 296 community making data, historical and real-time, standardized and available to the ionospheric community for their research, applications and modeling purposes are presented. The contribution of COST 296 with the added value of the validated data made possible a trusted ionospheric monitoring for research and modeling purposes, and it served for testing and improving the algorithms producing real-time data and providing data users measurement uncertainties. These value added data also served for calibration and validation of space-borne sensors. New techniques and parameters have been developed for monitoring the near Earth space plasma, as time dependent 2D maps of vertical total electron content (vTEC), other key ionospheric parameters and activity indices for distinguishing disturbed ionospheric conditions, as well as a technique for improving the discrepancies of different mapping services. The dissemination of the above products has been developed by COST 296 participants throughout the websites making them available on-line for real-time applications

Nowcasting, forecasting and warning for ionospheric propagation: tools and methods

The paper reviews the work done in the course of the COST 271 Action concerned with the development of tools and methods for forecasting, nowcasting and warning of ionospheric propagation conditions. Three broad categories of work are covered. First, the maintenance and enhancement of existing operational services that provide forecast or nowcast data products to end users; brief descriptions of RWC Warsaw and the STIF service are given. Second, the development of prototype or experimental services; descriptions are given of a multi-datasource system for reconstruction of electron density profiles, and a new technique using real-time IMF data to forecast ionospheric storms. The third category is the most wide-ranging, and deals with work that has presented new or improved tools or methods that future operational forecasting or nowcasting system will rely on. This work covers two areas - methods for updating models with prompt data, and improvements in modelling or our understanding of various ionospheric-magnetospheric features - and ranges over updating models of ionospheric characteristics and electron density, modelling geomagnetic storms, describing the spatial evolution of the mid-latitude trough, and validating a recently-proposed technique for deriving TEC from ionosonde observations

The science case for the EISCAT_3D radar

The EISCAT (European Incoherent SCATer) Scientific Association has provided versatile incoherent scatter (IS) radar facilities on the mainland of northern Scandinavia (the EISCAT UHF and VHF radar systems) and on Svalbard (the electronically scanning radar ESR (EISCAT Svalbard Radar) for studies of the high-latitude ionised upper atmosphere (the ionosphere). The mainland radars were constructed about 30 years ago, based on technological solutions of that time. The science drivers of today, however, require a more flexible instrument, which allows measurements to be made from the troposphere to the topside ionosphere and gives the measured parameters in three dimensions, not just along a single radar beam. The possibility for continuous operation is also an essential feature. To facilitatefuture science work with a world-leading IS radar facility, planning of a new radar system started first with an EU-funded Design Study (2005–2009) and has continued with a follow-up EU FP7 EISCAT_3D Preparatory Phase project (2010–2014). The radar facility will be realised by using phased arrays, and a key aspect is the use of advanced software and data processing techniques. This type of software radar will act as a pathfinder for other facilities worldwide. The new radar facility will enable the EISCAT_3D science community to address new, significant science questions as well as to serve society, which is increasingly dependent on space-based technology and issues related to space weather. The location of the radar within the auroral oval and at the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex is also ideal for studies of the long-term variability in the atmosphere and global change. This paper is a summary of the EISCAT_3D science case, which was prepared as part of the EU-funded Preparatory Phase project for the new facility. Three science working groups, drawn from the EISCAT user community, participated in preparing this document. In addition to these working group members, who are listed as authors, thanks are due to many others in the EISCAT scientific community for useful contributions, discussions, and support

Monitoring, tracking and forecasting ionospheric perturbations using GNSS techniques

The paper reviews the current state of GNSS-based detection, monitoring and forecasting of ionospheric perturbations in Europe in relation to the COST action ES0803 ‘‘Developing Space Weather Products and Services in Europe’’. Space weather research and related ionospheric studies require broad international collaboration in sharing databases, developing analysis software and models and providing services. Reviewed is the European GNSS data basis including ionospheric services providing derived data products such as the Total Electron Content (TEC) and radio scintillation indices. Fundamental ionospheric perturbation phenomena covering quite different scales in time and space are discussed in the light of recent achievements in GNSS-based ionospheric monitoring. Thus, large-scale perturbation processes characterized by moving ionization fronts, wave-like travelling ionospheric disturbances and finally small-scale irregularities causing radio scintillations are considered. Whereas ground and space-based GNSS monitoring techniques are well developed, forecasting of ionospheric perturbations needs much more work to become attractive for users who might be interested in condensed information on the perturbation degree of the ionosphere by robust indices. Finally, we have briefly presented a few samples illustrating the space weather impact on GNSS applications thus encouraging the scientific community to enhance space weather research in upcoming years.Peer Reviewe

Monitoring and modeling of ionospheric characteristics in the framework of European COST 296 Action MIERS

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