Little-Italy: an Agent-Based Approach to the Estimation of Contact Patterns. Fitting Predicted Matrices to Serological Data.

Knowledge of social contact patterns still represents the most critical step for understanding the spread of directly transmitted infections. Data on social contact patterns are, however, expensive to obtain. A major issue is then whether the simulation of synthetic societies might be helpful to reliably reconstruct such data. In this paper, we compute a variety of synthetic age-specific contact matrices through simulation of a simple individual-based model (IBM). The model is informed by Italian Time Use data and routine socio-demographic data (e.g., school and workplace attendance, household structure, etc.). The model is named “Little Italy” because each artificial agent is a clone of a real person. In other words, each agent's daily diary is the one observed in a corresponding real individual sampled in the Italian Time Use Survey. We also generated contact matrices from the socio-demographic model underlying the Italian IBM for pandemic prediction. These synthetic matrices are then validated against recently collected Italian serological data for Varicella (VZV) and ParvoVirus (B19). Their performance in fitting sero-profiles are compared with other matrices available for Italy, such as the Polymod matrix. Synthetic matrices show the same qualitative features of the ones estimated from sample surveys: for example, strong assortativeness and the presence of super- and sub-diagonal stripes related to contacts between parents and children. Once validated against serological data, Little Italy matrices fit worse than the Polymod one for VZV, but better than concurrent matrices for B19. This is the first occasion where synthetic contact matrices are systematically compared with real ones, and validated against epidemiological data. The results suggest that simple, carefully designed, synthetic matrices can provide a fruitful complementary approach to questionnaire-based matrices. The paper also supports the idea that, depending on the transmissibility level of the infection, either the number of different contacts, or repeated exposure, may be the key factor for transmission

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A obtenção de compósitos elastoméricos resistentes a óleos e à abrasão, com propriedades mecânicas melhoradas através da incorporação de fibras naturais pelo processo de calandragem, é uma abordagem promissora que amplia as aplicações tecnológicas destes materiais e permite sua produção em escala industrial. Neste trabalho foram desenvolvidos compósitos de borracha nitrílica com fibras de sisal, e borracha nitrílica com carbonato de cálcio e fibras de sisal. Os compósitos foram processados em moinho de dois rolos, em condições otimizadas de processamento. Estudou−se a influência do teor de carbonato, tamanho e teor das fibras de sisal, bem como do tratamento de mercerização das fibras nas propriedades dos compósitos. Os compósitos, com as fibras curtas aleatoriamente distribuídas, foram caracterizados através de ensaios mecânicos, microscopia eletrônica de varredura (MEV), análise termogravimétrica (TG) e calorimetria exploratória diferencial (DSC). O tratamento de mercerização promoveu a remoção de lignina e hemicelulose da superfície das fibras de sisal, aumentando sua adesão à matriz de borracha. O tamanho critico de fibras, determinado para reforço nesta matriz nitrílica, foi de 6 mm, sendo que o teor crítico de fibras foi de 11 pcr para a matriz de borracha pura e de 5,5 pcr para a matriz combinada com carbonato de cálcio. Determinou−se que o teor ideal de carbonato é de 67 pcr. As análises térmicas (TG e DSC) mostraram que os compósitos são termicamente estáveis até a temperatura em torno de 300°C. Os materiais obtidos possuem uma boa relação custo⁄beneficio tornando promissora sua utilizaçãoThe preparation of elastomeric composites resistent to oils and abrasion, with mechanical properties enhanced through incorporation of natural fibers by calendering processing is a promising, approach that enlarge the technological applications for these materials, and allow their production in industrial scale. In this work, nitrile rubber with sisal fibers composites and nitrile rubber with calcium carbonate and sisal fibers composites were developed. The composites were processed on a two roll mixing mil, in optimized processing conditions. It was studied the influence of calcium carbonate amount, size and amount of sisal fibers, and alkali treatment of the fibers on the composite properties. The composites, with short fibers randomly distributed, were characterized by mechanical analysis, scanning electron microscopy, thermogravimetric analysis (TG) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Mercerization treatment promoted the remotion of lignin and hemicelluloses from the sisal fibers surface, increasing the adhesion between the fiber and the rubber matrix. The critical size of sisal fibers to reinforce the nitrile matrix was 6 milimeters, and the fibers critical volume was 11 phr for the pure rubber matrix, and 5.5 phr for the matrix containing calcium carbonate. The ideal volume of calcium carbonate was 67 phr. The thermal analysis (TG and DSC) demonstrated that the composites are thermally stable up to 300°C. The materials developed have a good cost⁄benefits relation making promising their utilizatio

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A obtenção de compósitos elastoméricos resistentes a óleos e à abrasão, com propriedades mecânicas melhoradas através da incorporação de fibras naturais pelo processo de calandragem, é uma abordagem promissora que amplia as aplicações tecnológicas destes materiais e permite sua produção em escala industrial. Neste trabalho foram desenvolvidos compósitos de borracha nitrílica com fibras de sisal, e borracha nitrílica com carbonato de cálcio e fibras de sisal. Os compósitos foram processados em moinho de dois rolos, em condições otimizadas de processamento. Estudou−se a influência do teor de carbonato, tamanho e teor das fibras de sisal, bem como do tratamento de mercerização das fibras nas propriedades dos compósitos. Os compósitos, com as fibras curtas aleatoriamente distribuídas, foram caracterizados através de ensaios mecânicos, microscopia eletrônica de varredura (MEV), análise termogravimétrica (TG) e calorimetria exploratória diferencial (DSC). O tratamento de mercerização promoveu a remoção de lignina e hemicelulose da superfície das fibras de sisal, aumentando sua adesão à matriz de borracha. O tamanho critico de fibras, determinado para reforço nesta matriz nitrílica, foi de 6 mm, sendo que o teor crítico de fibras foi de 11 pcr para a matriz de borracha pura e de 5,5 pcr para a matriz combinada com carbonato de cálcio. Determinou−se que o teor ideal de carbonato é de 67 pcr. As análises térmicas (TG e DSC) mostraram que os compósitos são termicamente estáveis até a temperatura em torno de 300°C. Os materiais obtidos possuem uma boa relação custo⁄beneficio tornando promissora sua utilizaçãoThe preparation of elastomeric composites resistent to oils and abrasion, with mechanical properties enhanced through incorporation of natural fibers by calendering processing is a promising, approach that enlarge the technological applications for these materials, and allow their production in industrial scale. In this work, nitrile rubber with sisal fibers composites and nitrile rubber with calcium carbonate and sisal fibers composites were developed. The composites were processed on a two roll mixing mil, in optimized processing conditions. It was studied the influence of calcium carbonate amount, size and amount of sisal fibers, and alkali treatment of the fibers on the composite properties. The composites, with short fibers randomly distributed, were characterized by mechanical analysis, scanning electron microscopy, thermogravimetric analysis (TG) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Mercerization treatment promoted the remotion of lignin and hemicelluloses from the sisal fibers surface, increasing the adhesion between the fiber and the rubber matrix. The critical size of sisal fibers to reinforce the nitrile matrix was 6 milimeters, and the fibers critical volume was 11 phr for the pure rubber matrix, and 5.5 phr for the matrix containing calcium carbonate. The ideal volume of calcium carbonate was 67 phr. The thermal analysis (TG and DSC) demonstrated that the composites are thermally stable up to 300°C. The materials developed have a good cost⁄benefits relation making promising their utilizatio

Caracterização mecânica e térmica de compósitos de poli (cloreto de vinila) reforçados com fibras de sisal

Compósitos de PVC, plastificados com diferentes sistemas de plastificação e reforçados com fibras de sisal, foram processados em moinho de dois rolos. A influência do tipo e teor do plastificante, do comprimento e do teor das fibras nas propriedades dos compósitos obtidos foi estudada. Dois tipos de plastificantes foram usados, um líquido (do tipo poliéster) e um sólido permanente (copolímero etileno/ acetato de vinila/ monóxido de carbono). As fibras usadas foram previamente lavadas com água a 80 °C por uma hora. Os compósitos, com fibras curtas aleatoriamente distribuídas, foram caracterizados através de ensaio mecânico de resistência à tração, microscopia eletrônica de varredura (MEV), e análises térmicas de calorimetria exploratória diferencial (DSC) e análise por termogravimetria (TG). O comprimento ótimo de fibra obtido para os compósitos foi de 6 mm. O uso do plastificante sólido mostrou-se viável e promoveu uma maior molhabilidade da fibra pela matriz nos compósitos, principalmente para teores acima de 40 pcr. As análises térmicas mostraram que a substituição do plastificante líquido pelo plastificante sólido não afetou a estabilidade térmica das matrizes e dos compósitos.Composites consisting of flexible polyvinyl chloride (PVC), plasticized with two different types of plasticizers and reinforced with sisal fibers, were processed on a two-roll mixing mill. Two plasticizers were used, a liquid plasticizer (polyester) and a permanent solid plasticizer (ethylene/ vinyl acetate/ carbon monoxide copolymer - Elvaloy® ), to form two kinds of polymeric matrices. For each one of these matrices, the influence of plasticizers type, plasticizers content, size and quantity of sisal fibers in the composite properties has been studied. The fibers were washed with water at 80 °C during one hour. The composites with randomly distributed short fibers were characterized by mechanical analysis, scanning electron microscopy, thermogravimetric analysis (TG) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). For each one of the polymeric matrices studied, the optimal size of sisal fiber was 6mm in order to have a better reinforcement, under the conditions investigated. The use of a solid plasticizer was feasible for PVC compositions and promoted a better fiber-matrix contact on the composites, increasing mechanical properties for plasticizer quantity over 40 phr, compared to the liquid plasticizer. Thermal analysis (TG and DSC) demonstrated that the replacement of the liquid by the solid plasticizer does not change the thermal behavior of the composites and unloaded polymeric matrices. For both matrices the elastic modulus is increased as the sisal fibers are added, when compared to unloaded matrices.Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq

The Second International Asteroid Warning Network Timing Campaign: 2005 LW3

The Earth close approach of near-Earth asteroid 2005 LW3 on 2022 November 23 represented a good opportunity for a second observing campaign to test the timing accuracy of astrometric observation. With 82 participating stations, the International Asteroid Warning Network collected 1046 observations of 2005 LW3 around the time of the close approach. Compared to the previous timing campaign targeting 2019 XS, some individual observers were able to significantly improve the accuracy of their reported observation times. In particular, U.S. surveys achieved good timing performance. However, no broad, systematic improvement was achieved compared to the previous campaign, with an overall negative bias persisting among the different observers. The calibration of observing times and the mitigation of timing errors should be important future considerations for observers and orbit computers, respectively.Funder: Institute of Cosmos SciencesUniversity of Barcelona (CEX2019-000918-M); European Union (PID2021-122842OB-C21);Full text license: CC BY</p