Downscaling CMIP6 climate projections to classify the future offshore wind energy resource in the Spanish territorial waters

The Spanish government has established a Maritime Spatial Planning including areas for wind farms, with the aim of contributing up to 40% of European floating offshore wind power by 2030. Thus, it is crucial to assess the current and future offshore wind energy resource in these areas, and classify the near future resource by considering wind power density and other relevant factors like resource stability, environmental risks, and installation costs. To attain the necessary high spatial resolution, a dynamic downscaling of a multi-model ensemble from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in Spanish territorial waters, including the Iberian Peninsula, Balearic Islands, and Canary Islands. Future projections were considered under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2–4.5 and 5–8.5 scenarios. According to the results, Spain’s offshore wind energy potential is projected to grow in the upcoming years, particularly in the Atlantic Ocean and surrounding the Canary Islands. Wind resource classification in the potential offshore wind farm areas reveals noteworthy diversity, with ratings ranging from “fair” (3/7) to “outstanding” (6/7). The most promising areas for offshore wind farm development in the near future are located in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula and the Canary Islands.Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. TED2021-129479A-I00Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. PID2021-128510OB-I00Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. IJC2020-043745-

Lateral terrestrial water flow contribution to summer precipitation at continental scale – A comparison between Europe and West Africa with WRF‐Hydro‐tag ensembles

It is well accepted that summer precipitation can be altered by soil moisture condition. Coupled land surface – atmospheric models have been routinely used to quantify soil moisture – precipitation feedback processes. However, most of the land surface models (LSMs) assume a vertical soil water transport and neglect lateral terrestrial water flow at the surface and in the subsurface, which potentially reduces the realism of the simulated soil moisture – precipitation feedback. In this study, the contribution of lateral terrestrial water flow to summer precipitation is assessed in two different climatic regions, Europe and West Africa, for the period June–September 2008. A version of the coupled atmospheric-hydrological model WRF-Hydro with an option to tag and trace land surface evaporation in the modelled atmosphere, named WRF-Hydro-tag, is employed. An ensemble of 30 simulations with terrestrial routing and 30 simulations without terrestrial routing is generated with random realizations of turbulent energy with the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme, for both Europe and West Africa. The ensemble size allows to extract random noise from continental-scale averaged modelled precipitation. It is found that lateral terrestrial water flow increases the relative contribution of land surface evaporation to precipitation by 3.6% in Europe and 5.6% in West Africa, which enhances a positive soil moisture – precipitation feedback and generates more uncertainty in modelled precipitation, as diagnosed by a slight increase in normalized ensemble spread. This study demonstrates the small but non-negligible contribution of lateral terrestrial water flow to precipitation at continental scale

Demographic, clinical and antibody characteristics of patients with digital ulcers in systemic sclerosis: data from the DUO Registry

OBJECTIVES: The Digital Ulcers Outcome (DUO) Registry was designed to describe the clinical and antibody characteristics, disease course and outcomes of patients with digital ulcers associated with systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: The DUO Registry is a European, prospective, multicentre, observational, registry of SSc patients with ongoing digital ulcer disease, irrespective of treatment regimen. Data collected included demographics, SSc duration, SSc subset, internal organ manifestations, autoantibodies, previous and ongoing interventions and complications related to digital ulcers. RESULTS: Up to 19 November 2010 a total of 2439 patients had enrolled into the registry. Most were classified as either limited cutaneous SSc (lcSSc; 52.2%) or diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc; 36.9%). Digital ulcers developed earlier in patients with dcSSc compared with lcSSc. Almost all patients (95.7%) tested positive for antinuclear antibodies, 45.2% for anti-scleroderma-70 and 43.6% for anticentromere antibodies (ACA). The first digital ulcer in the anti-scleroderma-70-positive patient cohort occurred approximately 5 years earlier than the ACA-positive patient group. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides data from a large cohort of SSc patients with a history of digital ulcers. The early occurrence and high frequency of digital ulcer complications are especially seen in patients with dcSSc and/or anti-scleroderma-70 antibodies

A new moisture tagging capability in the Weather Research and Forecasting model: formulation, validation and application to the 2014 Great Lake-effect snowstorm

A new moisture tagging tool, usually known as water vapor tracer (WVT) method or online Eulerian method, has been implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional meteorological model, enabling it for precise studies on atmospheric moisture sources and pathways. We present here the method and its formulation, along with details of the implementation into WRF. We perform an in-depth validation with a 1-month long simulation over North America at 20 km resolution, tagging all possible moisture sources: lateral boundaries, continental, maritime or lake surfaces and initial atmospheric conditions. We estimate errors as the moisture or precipitation amounts that cannot be traced back to any source. Validation results indicate that the method exhibits high precision, with errors considerably lower than 1 % during the entire simulation period, for both precipitation and total precipitable water. We apply the method to the Great Lake-effect snowstorm of November 2014, aiming at quantifying the contribution of lake evaporation to the large snow accumulations observed in the event. We perform simulations in a nested domain at 5 km resolution with the tagging technique, demonstrating that about 30–50 % of precipitation in the regions immediately downwind, originated from evaporated moisture in the Great Lakes. This contribution increases to between 50 and 60 % of the snow water equivalent in the most severely affected areas, which suggests that evaporative fluxes from the lakes have a fundamental role in producing the most extreme accumulations in these episodes, resulting in the highest socioeconomic impacts

Patients with Crohn's disease have longer post-operative in-hospital stay than patients with colon cancer but no difference in complications' rate

BACKGROUNDRight hemicolectomy or ileocecal resection are used to treat benign conditions like Crohn's disease (CD) and malignant ones like colon cancer (CC).AIMTo investigate differences in pre- and peri-operative factors and their impact on post-operative outcome in patients with CC and CD.METHODSThis is a sub-group analysis of the European Society of Coloproctology's prospective, multi-centre snapshot audit. Adult patients with CC and CD undergoing right hemicolectomy or ileocecal resection were included. Primary outcome measure was 30-d post-operative complications. Secondary outcome measures were post-operative length of stay (LOS) at and readmission.RESULTSThree hundred and seventy-five patients with CD and 2,515 patients with CC were included. Patients with CD were younger (median = 37 years for CD and 71 years for CC (P < 0.01), had lower American Society of Anesthesiology score (ASA) grade (P < 0.01) and less comorbidity (P < 0.01), but were more likely to be current smokers (P < 0.01). Patients with CD were more frequently operated on by colorectal surgeons (P < 0.01) and frequently underwent ileocecal resection (P < 0.01) with higher rate of de-functioning/primary stoma construction (P < 0.01). Thirty-day post-operative mortality occurred exclusively in the CC group (66/2515, 2.3%). In multivariate analyses, the risk of post-operative complications was similar in the two groups (OR 0.80, 95%CI: 0.54-1.17; P = 0.25). Patients with CD had a significantly longer LOS (Geometric mean 0.87, 95%CI: 0.79-0.95; P < 0.01). There was no difference in re-admission rates. The audit did not collect data on post-operative enhanced recovery protocols that are implemented in the different participating centers.CONCLUSIONPatients with CD were younger, with lower ASA grade, less comorbidity, operated on by experienced surgeons and underwent less radical resection but had a longer LOS than patients with CC although complication's rate was not different between the two groups

Impact of lateral terrestrial water flow on land‐atmosphere interactions in the Heihe river basin in China: fully coupled modeling and precipitation recycling analysis

Lateral terrestrial water flow is usually not considered in regional climate modeling. This study focuses on the impact of increased hydrological model complexity for the description of the land‐atmosphere interactions in a complex terrain region. For this purpose, we apply the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with its hydrological modeling extension package WRF‐Hydro for the case of the Heihe River Basin in convection permitting atmospheric resolution (3 km). The Heihe River Basin (143,200 km2) is an arid‐semiarid inland river basin in Northwestern China. By comparing model simulations results with and without coupling for the period 2008-2010, the effect of lateral terrestrial water flow on land‐atmosphere interactions is evaluated with a joint atmospheric‐terrestrial water budget analysis, a regional precipitation recycling analysis and a fully three‐dimensional atmospheric moisture tracing method (evaporation tagging). The coupled modeling system WRF‐Hydro simulates near‐surface temperature and precipitation variability similar to the WRF model and demonstrates, in addition, its ability to reproduce daily streamflow. In the fully coupled mode, as a consequence of lateral terrestrial water flow description, the redistribution of infiltration excess in the mountainous area produces higher soil moisture content in the root zone, increases the terrestrial water storage and evapotranspiration, and decreases the total runoff. The resulting wetting and cooling in the near surface affects the regional climate by changing the regional water vapor transports and water vapor content, while, in turn, inducing precipitation differences. Overall, the fully coupled modeling increases the recycling rate, indicating that lateral terrestrial water flow influences regional climate in our study area