Modelling transient population dynamics and their role in ecology and evolution

Population projection matrix (PPM) models are a central tool in ecology and evolution. They are widely used for devising population management practises for conservation, pest control, and harvesting. They are frequently employed in comparative analyses that seek to explain demographic patterns in natural populations. They are also a key tool in calculating measures of fitness for evolutionary studies. Yet, demographic analyses using projection matrices have, in some ways, failed to keep up with prevailing ecological paradigms. A common focus on long-term and equilibrium dynamics when analysing projection matrix models fits better with the outmoded view of ecosystems as stable and immutable. The more current view of ecosystems as dynamic and subject to constant extrinsic disturbances has bred new theoretical advances in the study of short-term "transient" dynamics. Transient dynamics can be very different to long-term trends, and given that ecological studies are often conducted over short timescales, they may be more relevant to research. This thesis focuses on the study of transient dynamics using population projection matrix models. The first section presents theoretical, methodological and computational advances in the study of transient dynamics. These are designed to enhance the predictive power of models, whilst keeping data requirements to a minimum, and borrow from the fields of engineering and systems control. Case studies in this section provide support for consideration of transient dynamics in population management. The second section applies some of these new methods to answer pertinent questions surrounding the ecology and evolution of transient dynamics in plants. Results show that transient dynamics exhibit patterns according to life form and phylogenetic history. Evidence suggests that this can be linked to the stage-structuring of life cycles, which opens up the possibility for new avenues of research considering the evolution of transient dynamics in nature

Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments

The dynamics of structured plant populations in variable environments can be decomposed into the ‘asymptotic’ growth contributed by vital rates, and ‘transient’ growth caused by deviation from stable stage structure. We apply this framework to a large, global data base of longitudinal studies of projection matrix models for plant populations. We ask, what is the relative contribution of transient boom and bust to the dynamic trajectories of plant populations in stochastic environments? Is this contribution patterned by phylogeny, growth form or the number of life stages per population and per species? We show that transients contribute nearly 50% or more to the resulting trajectories, depending on whether transient and stable contributions are partitioned according to their absolute or net contribution to population dynamics. Both transient contributions and asymptotic contributions are influenced heavily by the number of life stages modelled. We discuss whether the drivers of transients should be considered real ecological phenomena, or artefacts of study design and modelling strategy. We find no evidence for phylogenetic signal in the contribution of transients to stochastic growth, nor clear patterns related to growth form. We find a surprising tendency for plant populations to boom rather than bust in response to temporal changes in vital rates and that stochastic growth rates increase with increasing tendency to boom. Synthesis. Transient dynamics contribute significantly to stochastic population dynamics but are often overlooked in ecological and evolutionary studies that employ stochastic analyses. Better understanding of transient responses to fluctuating population structure will yield better management strategies for plant populations, and better grasp of evolutionary dynamics in the real world

Common European birds are declining rapidly while less abundant species' numbers are rising

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Biodiversity is undergoing unprecedented global decline. Efforts to slow this rate have focused foremost on rarer species, which are at most risk of extinction. Less interest has been paid to more common species, despite their greater importance in terms of ecosystem function and service provision. How rates of decline are partitioned between common and less abundant species remains unclear. Using a 30-year data set of 144 bird species, we examined Europe-wide trends in avian abundance and biomass. Overall, avian abundance and biomass are both declining with most of this decline being attributed to more common species, while less abundant species showed an overall increase in both abundance and biomass. If overall avian declines are mainly due to reductions in a small number of common species, conservation efforts targeted at rarer species must be better matched with efforts to increase overall bird numbers, if ecological impacts of birds are to be maintained.RSPBEuropean Commissio

Perturbation analysis of transient population dynamics using matrix projection models

Non‐stable populations exhibit short‐term transient dynamics: size, growth and structure that are unlike predicted long‐term asymptotic stable, stationary or equilibrium dynamics. Understanding transient dynamics of non‐stable populations is important for designing effective population management strategies, predicting the responses of populations to environmental change or disturbance, and understanding population processes and life‐history evolution in variable environments. Transient perturbation analyses are vital tools for achieving these aims. They assess how transient dynamics are affected by changes to vital rates, population structure, or underlying variables that affect these. These changes could be imposed deliberately by population managers, or driven by environmental variables. Methodological approaches to transient perturbation analysis are diverse, and different methods are suited to different applications: choosing a method to use may be challenging. Here, I review existing methods for prospective transient perturbation analysis, and identify a number of key considerations for ecologists when choosing a method. These include the approach taken in calculating the perturbation, the type of model being analysed, the perturbation structure, the population response of interest, nonlinear response to perturbation, standardization for asymptotic dynamics, the initial population structure, and the time frame of interest. I discuss these with reference to the application of transient perturbation analyses in both population management and comparative analysis. The diversity of transient perturbation analyses available means that existing approaches are applicable to a wide range of population management and comparative analysis scenarios. It is important, however, for ecologists using these methods to know exactly what is being measured. Despite a wealth of existing methods, I identify some areas that would benefit from further development

Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration

Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii)

A pace and shape perspective on fertility

Ageing is ubiquitous to all organisms, but ageing does not always mean senescence. Counter to most evolutionary theories of ageing, the patterns of mortality and reproduction may remain unchanged or improve with age, as well as deteriorate. Describing this diversity presents a challenge to eco‐evolutionary demography. The pace–shape framework of mortality tackled this challenge to qualify and quantify orthogonal components of ageing patterns in mortality. Here, we extend this framework to fertility. Analogous to the logic of the mortality framework, we define a perspective, a framework and novel methods for the pace and shape of fertility. These distinguish between orthogonal components of time‐scale (pace) and distribution (shape) of reproduction over adult life span. Our pace and shape framework mirrors that of mortality, through a shift of perspective from the mother giving birth, to the offspring being born. Our new measures overcome many problems associated with measuring natural fertility trajectories, have both a clear biological and mathematical interpretation, can be intuitively visualized and satisfy and extend important conditions of the pace–shape paradigm. A comprehensive framework of fertility pace–shape facilitates ecological and evolutionary research addressing interactions and trade‐offs between components of birth and death patterns, across the whole tree of life. The burgeoning emergence of large comparative demographic data sources across wide environmental, geographical, temporal and phylogenetic ranges, combined with pace–shape measures, opens the door to comparative analyses of ageing which were never possible before

Angiotensin II Promotes KV7.4 Channels Degradation Through Reduced Interaction With HSP90 (Heat Shock Protein 90)

Voltage-gated Kv7.4 channels have been implicated in vascular smooth muscle cells’ activity because they modulate basal arterial contractility, mediate responses to endogenous vasorelaxants, and are downregulated in several arterial beds in different models of hypertension. Angiotensin II (Ang II) is a key player in hypertension that affects the expression of several classes of ion channels. In this study, we evaluated the effects of Ang II on the expression and function of vascular Kv7.4. Western blot and quantitative polymerase chain reaction revealed that in whole rat mesenteric artery, Ang II incubation for 1 to 7 hours decreased Kv7.4 protein expression without reducing transcript levels. Moreover, Ang II decreased XE991 (Kv7)–sensitive currents and attenuated membrane potential hyperpolarization and relaxation induced by the Kv7 activator ML213. Ang II also reduced Kv7.4 staining at the plasma membrane of vascular smooth muscle cells. Proteasome inhibition with MG132 prevented Ang II–induced decrease of Kv7.4 levels and counteracted the functional impairment of ML213-induced relaxation in myography experiments. Proximity ligation assays showed that Ang II impaired the interaction of Kv7.4 with the molecular chaperone HSP90 (heat shock protein 90), enhanced the interaction of Kv7.4 with the E3 ubiquitin ligase CHIP (C terminus of Hsp70-interacting protein), and increased Kv7.4 ubiquitination. Similar alterations were found in mesenteric vascular smooth muscle cells isolated from Ang II–infused mice. The effect of Ang II was emulated by 17-AAG (17-demethoxy-17-(2-propenylamino) geldanamycin) that inhibits HSP90 interactions with client proteins. These results show that Ang II downregulates Kv7.4 by altering protein stability through a decrease of its interaction with HSP90. This leads to the recruitment of CHIP and Kv7.4 ubiquitination and degradation via the proteasome

Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants

Correlative species distribution models are based on the observed relationship between species’ occurrence and macroclimate or other environmental variables. In climates predicted less favourable populations are expected to decline, and in favourable climates they are expected to persist. However, little comparative empirical support exists for a relationship between predicted climate suitability and population performance. We found that the performance of 93 populations of 34 plant species worldwide – as measured by in situ population growth rate, its temporal variation and extinction risk – was not correlated with climate suitability. However, correlations of demographic processes underpinning population performance with climate suitability indicated both resistance and vulnerability pathways of population responses to climate: in less suitable climates, plants experienced greater retrogression (resistance pathway) and greater variability in some demographic rates (vulnerability pathway). While a range of demographic strategies occur within species’ climatic niches, demographic strategies are more constrained in climates predicted to be less suitable

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Synergistic interplay of Gβγ and phosphatidylinositol 4,5-bisphosphate dictates Kv7.4 channel activity.

Kv7.4 channels are key determinants of arterial contractility and cochlear mechanosensation that, like all Kv7 channels, have an obligatory requirement for phosphatidylinositol 4,5-bisphosphate (PIP2). βγ G proteins (Gβγ) have been identified as novel positive regulators of Kv7.4. The present study ascertained whether Gβγ increased Kv7.4 open probability through an increased sensitivity to PIP2. In HEK cells stably expressing Kv7.4, PIP2 or Gβγ increased open probability in a concentration dependent manner. Depleting PIP2 prevented any Gβγ-mediated stimulation whilst an array of Gβγ inhibitors prohibited any PIP2-induced current enhancement. A combination of PIP2 and Gβγ at sub-efficacious concentrations increased channel open probability considerably. The stimulatory effects of three Kv7.2-7.5 channel activators were also lost by PIP2 depletion or Gβγ inhibitors. This study alters substantially our understanding of the fundamental processes that dictate Kv7.4 activity, revealing a more complex and subtle paradigm where the reliance on local phosphoinositide is dictated by interaction with Gβγ