Minding impacting events in a model of stochastic variance

We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation exhibiting a clustering profile. Specifically, inspired by the fact that in a variety of systems impacting events are hardly forgot, we split the process into two different regimes: a first one for regular periods where the average volatility of the fluctuations within a certain period of time is below a certain threshold and another one when the local standard deviation outnumbers it. In the former situation we use standard rules for heteroscedastic processes whereas in the latter case the system starts recalling past values that surpassed the threshold. Our results show that for appropriate parameter values the model is able to provide fat tailed probability density functions and strong persistence of the instantaneous variance characterised by large values of the Hurst exponent is greater than 0.8, which are ubiquitous features in complex systems.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. To published in PLoS on

Calculating the energy spectra of magnetic molecules: application of real- and spin-space symmetries

The determination of the energy spectra of small spin systems as for instance given by magnetic molecules is a demanding numerical problem. In this work we review numerical approaches to diagonalize the Heisenberg Hamiltonian that employ symmetries; in particular we focus on the spin-rotational symmetry SU(2) in combination with point-group symmetries. With these methods one is able to block-diagonalize the Hamiltonian and thus to treat spin systems of unprecedented size. In addition it provides a spectroscopic labeling by irreducible representations that is helpful when interpreting transitions induced by Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR), Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) or Inelastic Neutron Scattering (INS). It is our aim to provide the reader with detailed knowledge on how to set up such a diagonalization scheme.Comment: 29 pages, many figure

Female chacma baboons form strong, equitable, and enduring social bonds

Analyses of the pattern of associations, social interactions, coalitions, and aggression among chacma baboons (Papio hamadryas ursinus) in the Okavango Delta of Botswana over a 16-year period indicate that adult females form close, equitable, supportive, and enduring social relationships. They show strong and stable preferences for close kin, particularly their own mothers and daughters. Females also form strong attachments to unrelated females who are close to their own age and who are likely to be paternal half-sisters. Although absolute rates of aggression among kin are as high as rates of aggression among nonkin, females are more tolerant of close relatives than they are of others with whom they have comparable amounts of contact. These findings complement previous work which indicates that the strength of social bonds enhances the fitness of females in this population and support findings about the structure and function of social bonds in other primate groups

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Effective Rheology of Bubbles Moving in a Capillary Tube

We calculate the average volumetric flux versus pressure drop of bubbles moving in a single capillary tube with varying diameter, finding a square-root relation from mapping the flow equations onto that of a driven overdamped pendulum. The calculation is based on a derivation of the equation of motion of a bubble train from considering the capillary forces and the entropy production associated with the viscous flow. We also calculate the configurational probability of the positions of the bubbles.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur

ASPP: a new family of oncogenes and tumour suppressor genes

The apoptosis stimulating proteins of p53 (ASPP) family consists of three members, ASPP1, ASPP2 and iASPP. They bind to proteins that are key players in controlling apoptosis (p53, Bcl-2 and RelA/p65) and cell growth (APCL, PP1). So far, the best-known function of the ASPP family members is their ability to regulate the apoptotic function of p53 and its family members, p63 and p73. Biochemical and genetic evidence has shown that ASPP1 and ASPP2 activate, whereas iASPP inhibits, the apoptotic but not the cell-cycle arrest function of p53. The p53 tumour suppressor gene, one of the most frequently mutated genes in human cancer, is capable of suppressing tumour growth through its ability to induce apoptosis or cell-cycle arrest. Thus, the ASPP family of proteins helps to determine how cells choose to die and may therefore be a novel target for cancer therapy

The Gaia-ESO Survey: The inner disk, intermediate-age open cluster Trumpler 23

Milky Way open clusters are very diverse in terms of age, chemical composition, and kinematic properties. Intermediate-age and old open clusters are less common, and it is even harder to find them inside the solar Galactocentric radius, due to the high mortality rate and strong extinction inside this region. NGC 6802 is one of the inner disk open clusters (IOCs) observed by the $Gaia$-ESO survey (GES). This cluster is an important target for calibrating the abundances derived in the survey due to the kinematic and chemical homogeneity of the members in open clusters. Using the measurements from $Gaia$-ESO internal data release 4 (iDR4), we identify 95 main-sequence dwarfs as cluster members from the GIRAFFE target list, and eight giants as cluster members from the UVES target list. The dwarf cluster members have a median radial velocity of $13.6\pm1.9$ km s$^{-1}$, while the giant cluster members have a median radial velocity of $12.0\pm0.9$ km s$^{-1}$ and a median [Fe/H] of $0.10\pm0.02$ dex. The color-magnitude diagram of these cluster members suggests an age of $0.9\pm0.1$ Gyr, with $(m-M)_0=11.4$ and $E(B-V)=0.86$. We perform the first detailed chemical abundance analysis of NGC 6802, including 27 elemental species. To gain a more general picture about IOCs, the measurements of NGC 6802 are compared with those of other IOCs previously studied by GES, that is, NGC 4815, Trumpler 20, NGC 6705, and Berkeley 81. NGC 6802 shows similar C, N, Na, and Al abundances as other IOCs. These elements are compared with nucleosynthetic models as a function of cluster turn-off mass. The $\alpha$, iron-peak, and neutron-capture elements are also explored in a self-consistent way

Methylation at Global LINE-1 Repeats in Human Blood Are Affected by Gender but Not by Age or Natural Hormone Cycles

Previously, we reported on inter-individual and gender specific variations of LINE-1 methylation in healthy individuals. In this study, we investigated whether this variability could be influenced by age or sex hormones in humans. To this end, we studied LINE-1 methylation in vivo in blood-derived DNA from individuals aged 18 to 64 years and from young healthy females at various hormone levels during the menstrual cycle. Our results show that no significant association with age was observed. However, the previously reported increase of LINE-1 methylation in males was reconfirmed. In females, although no correlation between LINE-1 or Alu methylation and hormone levels was observed, a significant stable individual specific level of methylation was noted. In vitro results largely confirmed these findings, as neither estrogen nor dihydrotestosterone affected LINE-1 or Alu methylation in Hek293T, HUVEC, or MDA-kb2 cell lines. In contrast, a decrease in methylation was observed in estrogen-treated T47-Kbluc cell lines strongly expressing estrogen receptor. The very low expression of estrogen receptor in blood cells could explain the observed insensitivity of methylation at LINE-1 to natural hormonal variations in females. In conclusion, neither natural cycle of hormones nor age has a detectable effect on the LINE-1 methylation in peripheral blood cells, while gender remains an important factor

Compensating control participants when the intervention is of significant value: experience in Guatemala, India, Peru and Rwanda

The Household Air Pollution Intervention Network (HAPIN) trial is a randomised controlled trial in Guatemala, India, Peru and Rwanda to assess the health impact of a clean cooking intervention in households using solid biomass for cooking. The HAPIN intervention—a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stove and 18-month supply of LPG—has significant value in these communities, irrespective of potential health benefits. For control households, it was necessary to develop a compensation strategy that would be comparable across four settings and would address concerns about differential loss to follow-up, fairness and potential effects on household economics. Each site developed slightly different, contextually appropriate compensation packages by combining a set of uniform principles with local community input. In Guatemala, control compensation consists of coupons equivalent to the LPG stove’s value that can be redeemed for the participant’s choice of household items, which could include an LPG stove. In Peru, control households receive several small items during the trial, plus the intervention stove and 1 month of fuel at the trial’s conclusion. Rwandan participants are given small items during the trial and a choice of a solar kit, LPG stove and four fuel refills, or cash equivalent at the end. India is the only setting in which control participants receive the intervention (LPG stove and 18 months of fuel) at the trial’s end while also being compensated for their time during the trial, in accordance with local ethics committee requirements. The approaches presented here could inform compensation strategy development in future multi-country trials