The use and value of hierarchical governance and modeling in infrastructure network planning

This paper discusses the seemingly inespacable tension between two dominant approaches to governance that are implemented with regard to the planning, design and development of infrastructure networks, such as roads and railways. Roughly, these approaches can be framed in two styles of governance, the hierarchical and the consensual style (Smits, 1995). In today’s (western) societies, hierarchical approaches to governance seem to become more and more obsolete. This is especially the case with regard to ´problematic situations´ that have a large spatial and environmental impact. For example, the planning, design and development of infrastructure networks have such a widespread, trans-sectoral impact, that a top down approach is considered to be no longer viable. The impact of large scale projects (such as the Betuwelijn, the development of the Tweede Maasvlakte or the High Speed Train Network) spreads into spatial, environmental, financial, legal, economic (with regard to exploitation and maintenance) and social aspects of everyday life. As a consequence, it is more and more to be considered as ´a normal procedure´ to at least consult the stakeholders concerned. The almost inevitable involvement of large groups of stakeholders with different characteristics cannot be achieved with hierarchical approaches to governance. Top down is assumed to be inappropriate and thus, un-called for in these types of policy processes. Following this widely accepted assumption, consensual approaches are designed and implemented, under various appealing banners, such as co-production, open planning processes and participatory policy making. These appealing names lead to innovative forms of interaction and participation of stakeholders. Stakeholders are enticed to participate in design workshops, brainstorms, coffee table talks, internet based discussions and surveys and market consultations. Stakeholders are invited to information centres and travelling exhibitions. All these efforts are undertaken based on the assumption that (this time) ´government will really listen and make effective use of all ideas, concerns and energy´. The question arises how effective and efficient these participatory efforts have been thus far. Is a consensual style of governance a solution for the ever increasing complexity of the impact of large scale infrastructural projects? Or has the hierarchical style still have some value for this type of policy processes? And if so, what kind value is this? And in addition, can hierarchical and consensual styles of governance simultaneously be helpful in planning, design and development of infrastructural networks, and if so, how and to what extend? Or must they be considered to be ´natural enemies´ with regard to designing and implementing policy processes? In this paper these questions will be addressed by assessing a (virtual) case study, the further advancement of the road infrastructure network around the city of Rotterdam (also known as the Rotterdamse Ruit). Subsequently we will discuss the two dominant styles of governance, the hierarchical and consensual style. Second, we will describe the role and value of hierarchical (top down) and consensual (bottom up) approaches in planning, designing and development of (road) infrastructural networks and projects. Third, we will make an attempt to combine both approaches, into a hybrid, cross over like, approach that incorporates both hierarchical and consensual approaches in governance. And fourth, we will apply (test) our hybrid, cross over approach to our (virtual) case study, thus proposing an approach for future governance to support the further advancement of the (road) infrastructure network in and around Rotterdam.

New drivers in mobility: What moves the Dutch in 2012 and beyond?

In early 2011, the Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis performed a mobility analysis, focussing on recent trends. This analysis showed that, following the remarkable growth in the 1980s and 1990s, the total national mobility of people in the Netherlands has not increased since 2005. This particularly appears to apply to car use. Except for the economic crisis around 2008/2009, the reasons for this development remained unclear at the time. Based on further analyses of the developments in mobility over the last 10 years and some findings from other countries, the following four hypotheses related to the apparent stabilisation of car use were formulated and investigated in further research:

Incident management combined with traffic management

Peer ReviewedPostprint (author’s final draft

The evaluation of redundancy for road traffic networks.

This paper presents two redundancy indices for road traffic network junctions and also an aggregated network redundancy index. The proposed redundancy indices could be implemented to identify optimal design alternatives during the planning stage of the network junctions whereas the aggregated network redundancy index could assess the best control and management policies under disruptive events. Furthermore, effective measures of network redundancy are important to policy makers in understanding the current resilience and future planning to mitigate the impacts of greenhouse gases. The proposed junction indices cover the static aspect of redundancy, i.e. alternative paths, and the dynamic feature of redundancy reflected by the availability of spare capacity under different network loading and service level. The proposed redundancy indices are based on the entropy concept, due to its ability to measure the system configuration in addition to being able to model the inherent uncertainty in road transport network conditions. Various system parameters based on different combinations of link flow, relative link spare capacity and relative link speed were examined. However, the two redundancy indices developed from the combined relative link speed and relative link spare capacity showed strong correlation with junction delay and volume capacity ratio of a synthetic road transport network of Delft city. Furthermore, the developed redundancy indices responded well to demand variation under the same network conditions and supply variations. Another case study on Junction 3A in M42 motorway near Birmingham demonstrated that the developed redundancy index is able to reflect the impact of the Active Traffic Management scheme introduced in 2006

Optimal Redesign of the Dutch Road Network

The Dutch national road network has been developed over several decades. In the past, roads were constructed according to the then current spatial and transportation planning philosophies. Because the existing road network is a result of a long process of successive developments, the question can be asked whether this network is the most appropriate from the current point of view, especially taking in consideration the current socio economic structure of the Netherlands. To answer this question an optimization algorithm for designing road networks has been developed. With this algorithm the Dutch road network has been redesigned based on minimization of the travel and infrastructure costs and by taking into account the socio economic structure of the Netherlands. A comparison between the existing network and the new design shows that the redesigned Dutch national road network has significantly lower total costs than the existing road network. It is found that the construction of less roads with more lanes on different locations leads to a reduction of the total travel time and the total vehicles kilometers traveled

Calculation of welfare effects of road pricing on a large scale road network

After a brief review of the theoretical principles of road pricing this paper presents the results of a modelling exercise aimed at ascertaining the effects of road pricing on a large road network. For the study area we chose an important part of the road network of Belgium, situated in the corridor between the main cities of Brussels and Ghent. Simulations were carried out using an elastic static traffic assignment method. Special care was taken to use realistic parameters for resource costs, time costs, external environmental costs and tax rates. The reduction of traffic caused by the increased trip prices as well as the route changes induced by the tolls were taken into account. The main objective of tolling as considered in this paper is the maximisation of the social welfare gain but possible adverse effects of tolling on traffic streams are also investigated. The relative merits of cordon and corridor tolling schemes are discussed. A combination of these two tolling schemes appears to give the best results, both in terms of welfare gain and traffic streams. Santrauka Po trumpos teorinės kelių apmokestinimo apžvalgos aprašomi kelių apmokestinimo didelio mastelio kelių tinkle efekto nustatymo rezultatai. Analizei atlikti buvo pasirinkta svarbi Belgijos kelių tinklo dalis ‐ koridorius tarp pagrindiniu Briuselio ir Gento miestų. Ypatingas dėmesys kreiptas į tai, kad buvo panaudoti realūs išteklių, išorines aplinkos sąnaudų ir mokesčių parametrai. Modeliuota pagal lankstųjį statinį eismo nustatymo metodą. Nustatyta, kad eismas sumažėjo padidėjus kelionių kainoms, įvedus rinkliava už kelius. Aprašomas rinkliavos poreikis socialinei gerovei ir galimas nepalankus poveikis. Aptariami santykiniai privalumai, užkardos ir koridoriaus rinkliavų schemos. Šių dviejų rinkliavų schemų derinys duoda geriausių rezultatų tiek socialinei gerovei, tiek eismo srautams. First published online: 21 Oct 2010 Reikšminiai žodžiai: kelių mokestis, užkardos mokestis, koridoriaus mokestis, lankstus pastovus priskyrimo metodas, kelių tanki

Recognition of delirium in ICU patients: a diagnostic study of the NEECHAM confusion scale in ICU patients

BACKGROUND: A delirium, is a serious, high-frequency complication in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The consequences of this complication range from high morbidity and mortality to greater need for nursing care. Despite these, delirium is often not recognized and there for not treated. In this study a nursing screening instrument, the NEECHAM confusion scale, was studied for early recognition of delirium ICU patients. This scale proved valid and reliable in several studies in the general hospital population. METHODS: In this study validity and reliability were tested in a prospective cohort of 105 patients. Gold standard for delirium was an independent DSM-IV diagnosis. User friendliness was tested by structured evaluation of nurses' experiences working with the scale. RESULTS: The NEECHAM confusion scale showed high internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.88) and an interrater reliability of Cohen's Kappa 0.60. The concurrent validity with the DSM-IVcriteria showed a strong link (chi-square 67.52, p [less than or equal to] 0.001). Sensitivity was high, 97% and specificity was good 83%. ICU nurses completed the NEECHAM confusion rating in 3.69, ± 1.21 minutes average. In general the nurses were positive about the NEECHAM confusion scale. They were able to collect data during regular care, but experienced problems in rating the scale in intubated patients. The items in themselves were clear, the content validity, measured by the language used was rated good. CONCLUSION: The psychometric characteristics of the NEECHAM confusion scale of this ICU study are generally consistent with validity research previously reported for the general hospital population. The psychometric characteristics and the ease of use of the NEECHAM confusion scale enables ICU nurses to early recognize delirium. Further study, especially in intubed patients is recommended

Cellular Automata Models of Road Traffic

In this paper, we give an elaborate and understandable review of traffic cellular automata (TCA) models, which are a class of computationally efficient microscopic traffic flow models. TCA models arise from the physics discipline of statistical mechanics, having the goal of reproducing the correct macroscopic behaviour based on a minimal description of microscopic interactions. After giving an overview of cellular automata (CA) models, their background and physical setup, we introduce the mathematical notations, show how to perform measurements on a TCA model's lattice of cells, as well as how to convert these quantities into real-world units and vice versa. The majority of this paper then relays an extensive account of the behavioural aspects of several TCA models encountered in literature. Already, several reviews of TCA models exist, but none of them consider all the models exclusively from the behavioural point of view. In this respect, our overview fills this void, as it focusses on the behaviour of the TCA models, by means of time-space and phase-space diagrams, and histograms showing the distributions of vehicles' speeds, space, and time gaps. In the report, we subsequently give a concise overview of TCA models that are employed in a multi-lane setting, and some of the TCA models used to describe city traffic as a two-dimensional grid of cells, or as a road network with explicitly modelled intersections. The final part of the paper illustrates some of the more common analytical approximations to single-cell TCA models.Comment: Accepted for publication in "Physics Reports". A version of this paper with high-quality images can be found at: http://phdsven.dyns.cx (go to "Papers written"

Occurrence of delirium is severely underestimated in the ICU during daily care

Delirium is associated with prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay and higher mortality. Therefore, the recognition of delirium is important. We investigated whether intensivists and ICU nurses could clinically identify the presence of delirium in ICU patients during daily care. All ICU patients in a 3-month period who stayed for more than 48 h were screened daily for delirium by attending intensivists and ICU nurses. Patients were screened independently for delirium by a trained group of ICU nurses who were not involved in the daily care of the patients under study. The Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU (CAM-ICU) was used as a validated screening instrument for delirium. Values are expressed as median and interquartile range (IQR; P25-P75). During the study period, 46 patients (30 male, 16 female), median age 73 years (IQR = 64-80), with an ICU stay of 6 days (range 4-11) were evaluated. CAM-ICU scores were obtained during 425 patient days. Considering the CAM-ICU as the reference standard, delirium occurred in 50% of the patients with a duration of 3 days (range 1-9). Days with delirium were poorly recognized by doctors (sensitivity 28.0%; specificity 100%) and ICU nurses (sensitivity 34.8%; specificity 98.3%). Recognition did not differ between hypoactive or active status of the patients involved. Delirium is severely under recognized in the ICU by intensivists and ICU nurses in daily care. More attention should be paid to the implementation of a validated delirium-screening instrument during daily ICU car