2,772 research outputs found
Current account patterns and national real estate markets
This paper studies the association between current account and real estate valuation across countries. We find a robust and strong positive association between current account deficits and the appreciation of the real estate prices/(GDP deflator). Controlling for lagged GDP/capita growth, inflation, financial depth, institution, urban population growth and the real interest rate; a one standard deviation increase of the lagged current account deficits is associated with an appreciation of the real estate prices by 10%. This real appreciation is magnified by financial depth, and mitigated by the quality of institutions. Intriguingly, the economic importance of current account variations in accounting for the real estate valuation exceeds that of the other variables, including the real interest rate and inflation. Among the OECD countries, we find evidence of a decline over time in the cross country variation of the real estate/(GDP deflator), consistent with the growing globalization of national real estate markets. Weaker patterns apply to the non-OECD countries in the aftermath of the East Asian crisis
A critical appraisal of McKinnon's complementarity hypothesis: Does the real rate of return on money matter for investment in developing countries?
This is the post-print version of the final paper published in World Development. The
published article is available from the link below.
Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting,
and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to
this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2009 Elsevier B.V.McKinnon’s [McKinnon, R. I. (1973). Moneyandcapitalineconomicdevelopment. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution] complementarity hypothesis predicts that money and investment are complementary due to self-financed investment, so that a real deposit rate is the key determinant of capital formation for developing economies. This paper critically appraises this contention by conducting a vigorous empirical approach using panel data for 107 developing countries. The long-run and dynamic estimation results based on McKinnon’s theoretical model are supportive of the hypothesis. However, when the investment model is conditioned by factors such as financial development, different income levels across developing countries, external inflows, public finance, and trade constraints, the credibility of the hypothesis is undermined
Foreign capital in a growth model
Within an endogenous growth framework, this paper empirically investigates the impact of financial capital on economic growth for a panel of 60 developing countries, through the channel of domestic capital formation. By estimating the model for different income groups, it is found that while private FDI flows exert beneficial complementarity effects on the domestic capital formation across all income-group countries, the official financial flows contribute to increasing investment in the middle income economies, but not in the low income countries. The latter appears to demonstrate that the aid-growth nexus is supported in the middle income countries, whereas the misallocation of official inflows is more likely to exist in the low income countries, suggesting that aid effectiveness remains conditional on the domestic policy environment
Unemployment in Greece: Evidence from Greek regions using panel unit root tests
The purpose of the paper is to examine the nature of Greek regional unemployment. The paper contributes to the literature assessing the stochastic properties of Greek unemployment rate in the context of the Greek regions by relying on various univariate and panel unit root tests. In particular, recently developed and more powerful panel unit-root tests that control for structural breaks, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in the panel
are employed. The results show that in all cases, after taking into account the fact that regional unemployment rates in Greece are subject to a structural break, the null hypothesis of a unit root is not rejected, indicating that the Greek regional unemployment series are non-stationary with the presence of a structural break
The impact of ethanol production on US and regional gasoline markets
We update the findings of the impact of ethanol production on U.S. and regional gasoline markets as reported previously in Du and Hayes (2009 and 2011), by extending the data to December 2011. The results indicate that over the period of January 2000 to December 2011, the growth in ethanol production reduced wholesale gasoline prices by 0.45/gallon, while the regions of East Coast, West Coast, and Gulf Coast experienced negative impacts of similar magnitudes around 1.09/gallon and the regional impact ranges from 1.69/gallon in the Midwest
When Do Long-term Imbalances Lead to Current Account Reversals?
We extend the literature on sharp reductions in current account deficits by taking into account not only short-term determinants, but also the deviation of net foreign assets from their long-run equilibrium level. First, we analyse the long-term relationship between net foreign assets and a set of explanatory variables and construct a measure of imbalances. Next, we model current account reversals by incorporating this new measure and compare the predictive power of this model with the baseline specification that does not account for long-term imbalances. Our new model has a superior performance in and out-of-sample, especially when we control for the sign of imbalances. We also find that low net foreign assets do not necessarily lead to sharp reductions in current account deficits; it is rather the situation when they are below their equilibrium level that triggers reversals. Finally, we document that our new measure of net foreign asset imbalances is important only for developing countries, whereas standard models perform well for industrial economies
Unit Root and Cointegration Tests for Cross-sectionally Correlated Panels. Estimating Regional Production Functions
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