Global predictability of temperature extremes

Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations

Climate change and increased risk for the insurance sector: A global perspective and an assessment for the Netherlands.

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. As a consequence, economic losses caused by natural catastrophes could increase significantly. This will have considerable consequences for the insurance sector. On the one hand, increased risk from weather extremes requires assessing expected changes in damage and including adequate climate change projections in risk management. On the other hand, climate change can also bring new business opportunities for insurers. This paper gives an overview of the consequences of climate change for the insurance sector and discusses several strategies to cope with and adapt to increased risks. The particular focus is on the Dutch insurance sector, as the Netherlands is extremely vulnerable to climate change, especially with regard to extreme precipitation and flooding. Current risk sharing arrangements for weather risks are examined while potential new business opportunities, adaptation strategies, and public-private partnerships are identified. © The Author(s) 2009

Urban warfare ecology: A study of water supply in Basrah

This article assesses the impact of armed conflict on the drinking water service of Basrah from 1978 to 2013 through an ‘urban warfare ecology’ lens in order to draw out the implications for relief programming and relevance to urban studies. It interprets an extensive range of unpublished literature through a frame that incorporates the accumulation of direct and indirect impacts upon the hardware, consumables and people upon which urban services rely. The analysis attributes a step-wise decline in service quality to the lack of water treatment chemicals, lack of spare parts, and, primarily, an extended ‘brain-drain’ of qualified water service staff. The service is found to have been vulnerable to dependence upon foreign parts and people, ‘vicious cycles’ of impact, and the politics of aid and of reconstruction. It follows that practitioners and donors eschew ideas of relief–rehabilitation–development (RRD) for an appreciation of the needs particular to complex urban warfare biospheres, where armed conflict and sanctions permeate all aspects of service provision through altered biological and social processes. The urban warfare ecology lens is found to be a useful complement to ‘infrastructural warfare’ research, suggesting the study of protracted armed conflict upon all aspects of urban life be both deepened technically and broadened to other cases

Resilient Islands : evaluation of methodologies and tools 2022

The Resilient Islands (RI) project is a collaboration between the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies(IFRC) and The Nature Conservancy (TNC) aimed at helping Caribbean islands cope with the impacts of climate change by promoting ecosystem-based solutions that protect and restore coastal habitats proven to reduce risks. Born from a previous collaboration between TNC and the Grenada Red Cross titled “At the Water’s Edge”, this project sought to expand on the success of its predecessor. The RI project worked with communities to integrate ecosystembased adaptation strategies into national policies and implement ecosystem restoration projects in vulnerable coastal areas in the Dominican Republic, Grenada and Jamaica. The project combined each organisation’s strengths: the TNCs methodologies and tools for science-based environmental assessment with the IFRC’s deep community-based methodologies and tools. New methodologies and tools were also created. These combinations of pre-existing and new tools allowed for the community selection and assessment based on both science and local values, paving the way for context-specific ecosystem restoration projects. This evaluation examines nine methodologies and tools used throughout the RI project with an aim to determine their successes, opportunities for improvement, as well as potential to scale after considering how they were applied and/or modified

TalkFutures: Supporting Qualitative Practices in Distributed Community Engagements

Community engagements are qualitative processes that make use of participants local knowledge for democratic decision-making, but often exclude participants from data analysis and dissemination. This can mean that they are left feeling that their voice is not properly represented in the final output. This paper presents a digital community engagement process, TalkFutures, that actively involves participants in the production, distributed analysis and summarization of qualitative data. The design of TalkFutures was explored through a five-week deployment with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) as part of a consultation designed to inform future strategy. Our analysis of deployment metrics and post-deployment interviews outline how TalkFutures: (i) increased modes of participation across the qualitative workflow; (ii) reduced barriers to participation; and (iii) improved representation in the engagement processes

The mechanism of disaster capitalism and the failure to build community resilience:learning from the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila, Italy

This paper reflects on what materialised during recovery operations following the earthquake in L'Aquila, Italy, on 6 April 2009. Previous critiques have focused on the actions of the Government of Italy and the Department of Civil Protection (Protezione Civile), with little attention paid to the role of local authorities. This analysis sheds light on how the latter used emergency powers, the command-and-control approach, and top-down planning to manage the disaster context, especially in terms of removal of rubble, implementing safety measures, and allocating temporary accommodation. It discusses how these arrangements constituted the mechanism via which ‘disaster capitalism’ took hold at the local and national level, and how it violated human rights, produced environmental and social impacts, hindered local communities from learning, transforming, and building resilience, and facilitated disaster capitalism and corruption. To make the disaster risk reduction and resilience paradigm more effective, a shift from centralised civil protection to decentralised, inclusive community empowerment systems is needed

An evaluation and monetary assessment of the impact of flooding on subjective well-being across genders in Vietnam

The intangible impacts of floods on welfare are not well investigated, even though they are important aspects of welfare. Moreover, flooding has gender based impacts on welfare. These differing impacts create a gender based flood risk resilience gap. We study the intangible impacts of flood risk on the subjective well-being of residents in central Vietnam. The measurement of intangible impacts through subjective well-being is a growing field within flood risk research. We find an initial drop in welfare through subjective well-being across genders when a flood is experienced. Male respondents tended to recover their welfare losses by around 80% within 5 years while female respondents were associated with a welfare recovery of around 70%. A monetization of the impacts floods have on an individual’s subjective well-being shows that for the average female respondent, between 41% to 86% of annual income would be required to compensate subjective well-being losses after 5 years of experiencing a flood. The corresponding value for males is 30% to 57% of annual income. This shows that the intangible impacts of flood risk are important (across genders) and need to be integrated into flood (or climate) risk assessments to develop more socially appropriate risk management strategies

Disaster Situation and Humanitarian Emergency – In-Between Responses to the Refugee Crisis in Germany

In 2015, the needs of hundreds of thousands of refugees who arrived in Germany could only be met by deploying all available civil protection units. This article presents procedures and practices of state and non-state formal actors in the field of civil protection and related crisis management structures implemented and established across the board in the municipalities, the Federal Government and mass shelters, in particular in Bavaria. From a disaster research and humanitarian studies perspective we use the concept of “patterns of interpretation” to analyse the application of the “humanitarian emergency” and the “disaster situation” procedures to discuss whether the situation can really be categorized as “either-or” or whether the coexistence of the two served a function in managing such a complex situation. Finally, we discuss some developments that occurred after 2015/16 and consider the extent to which these developments shift or expand the existing patterns of interpretation

Factors Influencing Post-disaster Reconstruction Project Management for Housing Provision in the Gaza Strip, Occupied Palestinian Territories

In the Occupied Palestinian Territories, the Gaza Strip has suffered regular cycles of reconstruction due to systematic destruction during Israeli military operations, as in 2006, 2008–2009, 2012, and 2014. In this context of ongoing conflict this article aims to identify, rank, and discuss the most important factors influencing post-disaster reconstruction project management (PDRPM) for housing in the Gaza Strip. A set of key factors that influence PDRPM were assembled as a result of a global literature review. A questionnaire survey was conducted, and the obtained data were analyzed using a relative importance index for each PDRPM factor. Findings are presented in six groups: housing approaches, organizational behavior, project funding, supply chain and logistics, communication and coordination, and PDRPM context. Findings indicate that the most significant factors that influence PDRPM for housing provision in the Gaza Strip are related to issues associated with financial resources. It is critical that sufficient funding should be available in order to allow organizations to undertake housing projects in an effective and efficient way. Joint efforts are required from international donors and local organizations in order to effectively manage financial resources with the ultimate goal of improving PDRPM for housing provision

Co-creation of improved quality in disaster response and recovery

There is a compelling argument that the number and intensity of disasters are increasing and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The causes are already evident. They include global climate change, increasing population density, human encroachment into disaster prone areas, recurrent famine, and the increasing intensity of weather events. Similarly, there is a general concern that the quality of the responses to these disasters is decreasing, particularly those causing the most damage. Recent examples include the Ebola epidemic, the Philippian tsunami, Hurricane Sandy, the Tibetan earthquake economic and famine refugee crises, and war-caused refugee situations around the world. Elements of the decrease in response quality include limited global logistics capacity, difficult inter-agency and/or international collaboration, and increased reliance on non-governmental organizations to provide the response. This essay is an appeal for more research on responder co-creation of and quality in the four broad phases of the disaster life cycle: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery