The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction

International audienceData from volcano-monitoring studies constitute the only scientifically valid basis for short-term forecasts of a future eruption, or of possible changes during an ongoing eruption. Thus, in any effective hazards-mitigation program, a basic strategy in reducing volcano risk is the initiation or augmentation of volcano monitoring at historically active volcanoes and also at geologically young, but presently dormant, volcanoes with potential for reactivation. Beginning with the 1980s, substantial progress in volcano-monitoring techniques and networks ? ground-based as well space-based ? has been achieved. Although some geochemical monitoring techniques (e.g., remote measurement of volcanic gas emissions) are being increasingly applied and show considerable promise, seismic and geodetic methods to date remain the techniques of choice and are the most widely used. Availability of comprehensive volcano-monitoring data was a decisive factor in the successful scientific and governmental responses to the reawakening of Mount St. elens (Washington, USA) in 1980 and, more recently, to the powerful explosive eruptions at Mount Pinatubo (Luzon, Philippines) in 1991. However, even with the ever-improving state-of-the-art in volcano monitoring and predictive capability, the Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo case histories unfortunately still represent the exceptions, rather than the rule, in successfully forecasting the most likely outcome of volcano unrest

Geología y Volcanología de islas volcánicas oceánicas: Canarias-Hawaii

Lecciones didácticas de volcanología de Canarias y Hawaii con abundancia de ilustracionesCaja General de Ahorros de Canaria

Radiation thermo-chemical models of protoplanetary disks II. Line diagnostics

Methods. We use the recently developed disk code ProDiMo to calculate the physico-chemical structure of protoplanetary disks and apply the Monte-Carlo line radiative transfer code RATRAN to predict observable line profiles and fluxes. We consider a series of Herbig Ae type disk models ranging from 10^-6 M_Sun to 2.2 10^-2 M_Sun (between 0.5 and 700 AU) to discuss the dependency of the line fluxes and ratios on disk mass for otherwise fixed disk parameters. Results. We find the [CII] 157.7 mum line to originate in LTE from the surface layers of the disk, where Tg > Td . The total emission is dominated by surface area and hence depends strongly on disk outer radius. The [OI] lines can be very bright (> 10^-16 W/m^2) and form in slightly deeper and closer regions under non-LTE conditions. The high-excitation [OI] 145.5 mum line, which has a larger critical density, decreases more rapidly with disk mass than the 63.2 mum line. Therefore, the [OI] 63.2 mum/145.5 mum ratio is a promising disk mass indicator, especially as it is independent of disk outer radius for Rout > 200 AU. CO is abundant only in deeper layers A_V >~ 0.05. For too low disk masses (M_disk <~10^-4 M_Sun) the dust starts to become transparent, and CO is almost completely photo-dissociated. For masses larger than that the lines are an excellent independent tracer of disk outer radius and can break the outer radius degeneracy in the [OI] 63.2 mum/[CII]157.7 mum line ratio. Conclusions. The far-IR fine-structure lines of [CII] and [OI] observable with Herschel provide a promising tool to measure the disk gas mass, although they are mainly generated in the atomic surface layers. In spatially unresolved observations, none of these lines carry much information about the inner, possibly hot regions < 30 AU.Comment: accepted for publication in A&

Continuum and line modeling of disks around young stars II. Line diagnostics for GASPS from the DENT grid

Aims. We want to understand the chemistry and physics of disks on the basis of a large unbiased and statistically relevant grid of disk models. One of the main goals is to explore the diagnostic power of various gas emission lines and line ratios for deriving main disk parameters such as the gas mass. Methods. We explore the results of the DENT grid (Disk Evolution with Neat Theory) that consists of 300 000 disk models with 11 free parameters. Through a statistical analysis, we search for correlations and trends in an effort to find tools for disk diagnostic. Results. All calculated quantities like species masses, temperatures, continuum and line fluxes differ by several orders of magnitude across the entire parameter space. The broad distribution of these quantities as a function of input parameters shows the limitation of using a prototype T Tauri or Herbig Ae/Be disk model. The statistical analysis of the DENT grid shows that CO gas is rarely the dominant carbon reservoir in disks. Models with large inner radii (10 times the dust condensation radius) and/or shallow surface density gradients lack massive gas phase water reservoirs. Also, 60% of the disks have gas temperatures averaged over the oxygen mass in the range between 15 and 70 K; the average gas temperatures for CO and O differ by less than a factor two. Studying the observational diagnostics, the [CII] 158 \mum fine structure line flux is very sensitive to the stellar UV flux and presence of a UV excess and it traces the outer disk radius (Rout). In the submm, the CO low J rotational lines also trace Rout. Low [OI] 63/145 line ratios (< a few) can be explained with cool atomic O gas in the uppermost surface layers leading to self-absorption in the 63 \mum line; this occurs mostly for massive non-flaring, settled disk models without UV excess. ... abbreviatedComment: 15 pages, 25 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Childhood body mass index growth trajectories and endometrial cancer risk

Previously, we found that excess weight already in childhood has positive associations with endometrial cancer; however, associations with changes in body mass index (BMI) during childhood are not well understood. Therefore, we examined whether growth in childhood BMI is associated with endometrial cancer and its sub‐types. A cohort of 155,505 girls from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register with measured weights and heights at the ages of 6–14 years and born 1930–1989 formed the analytical population. BMI was transformed to age‐specific z scores. Using linear spline multilevel models, each girl's BMI growth trajectory was estimated as the deviance from the average trajectory for three different growth periods (6.25–7.99, 8.0–10.99, 11.0–14.0 years). Via a link to health registers, 1,020 endometrial cancer cases were identified, and Cox regressions were performed. A greater gain in BMI during childhood was positively associated with endometrial cancer but no differences between the different growth periods were detected in models adjusted for baseline BMI. The hazard ratios for the associations with overall growth during childhood per 0.1 z score increase were 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07–1.24) for all endometrial cancers, 1.12 (95% CI: 1.04–1.21) for estrogen‐dependent cancers, 1.16 (95% CI: 1.06–1.26) for endometrioid adenocarcinomas and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.16–1.84) for non‐estrogen‐dependent cancers. Growth in BMI in early life is positively linked to later endometrial cancer risk. We did not identify any sensitive childhood growth period, which suggests that excess gain in BMI during the entire childhood period should be avoided

The Herschel view of GAS in Protoplanetary Systems (GASPS). First comparisons with a large grid of models

The Herschel GASPS key program is a survey of the gas phase of protoplanetary discs, targeting 240 objects which cover a large range of ages, spectral types, and disc properties. To interpret this large quantity of data and initiate self-consistent analyses of the gas and dust properties of protoplanetary discs, we have combined the capabilities of the radiative transfer code MCFOST with the gas thermal balance and chemistry code ProDiMo to compute a grid of ≈300 000 disc models (DENT). We present a comparison of the first Herschel/GASPS line and continuum data with the predictions from the DENT grid of models. Our objective is to test some of the main trends already identified in the DENT grid, as well as to define better empirical diagnostics to estimate the total gas mass of protoplanetary discs. Photospheric UV radiation appears to be the dominant gas-heating mechanism for Herbig stars, whereas UV excess and/or X-rays emission dominates for T Tauri stars. The DENT grid reveals the complexity in the analysis of far-IR lines and the difficulty to invert these observations into physical quantities. The combination of Herschel line observations with continuum data and/or with rotational lines in the (sub-)millimetre regime, in particular CO lines, is required for a detailed characterisation of the physical and chemical properties of circumstellar discs

Longitudinal changes in reproductive hormones through the menopause transition in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)

We characterised changes in reproductive hormones—LH, FSH, SHBG and AMH—by chronological age and time around the menopause (reproductive age) in mid-life women and explored their associations with lifestyle and reproductive factors. We used data from 1608 women from a UK cohort who had repeat hormone measures and experienced a natural menopause. Multilevel models were used to assess: (i) changes in hormones (outcomes) by reproductive age and chronological age (these age variables being the key exposures) and (ii) associations of body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol intake, parity and age at menarche with changes in hormones by reproductive age. Both LH and FSH increased until ~ 5 and 7 years postmenopause, respectively, after which they declined, but not to premenopausal levels. SHBG decreased slightly until ~ 4 years postmenopause and increased thereafter. AMH decreased markedly before menopause and remained low subsequently. For all hormones, the best fitting models included both reproductive and chronological age. BMI, smoking and parity were associated with hormone changes; e.g., higher BMI was associated with slower increase in LH and FSH and decrease in AMH. Reproductive and chronological age contribute to changes in LH, FSH, SHBG and AMH across mid-life in women, and BMI, smoking and parity are associated with these hormone changes

Gas in the protoplanetary disc of HD 169142: Herschel\u27s view

In an effort to simultaneously study the gas and dust components of the disc surrounding the young Herbig Ae star HD 169142, we present far-IR observations obtained with the PACS instrument onboard the Herschel Space Observatory. This work is part of the open time key program GASPS, which is aimed at studying the evolution of protoplanetary discs. To constrain the gas properties in the outer disc, we observed the star at several key gas-lines, including [OI] 63.2 and 145.5 mum, [CII] 157.7 mum, CO 72.8 and 90.2 mum, and o-H2O 78.7 and 179.5 mum. We only detect the [OI] 63.2 mum line in our spectra, and derive upper limits for the other lines. We complement our data set with PACS photometry and 12/13CO data obtained with the Submillimeter Array. Furthermore, we derive accurate stellar parameters from optical spectra and UV to mm photometry. We model the dust continuum with the 3D radiative transfer code MCFOST and use this model as an input to analyse the gas lines with the thermo-chemical code ProDiMo. Our dataset is consistent with a simple model in which the gas and dust are well-mixed in a disc with a continuous structure between 20 and 200 AU, but this is not a unique solution. Our modelling effort allows us to constrain the gas-to-dust mass ratio as well as the relative abundance of the PAHs in the disc by simultaneously fitting the lines of several species that originate in different regions. Our results are inconsistent with a gas-poor disc with a large UV excess; a gas mass of 5.0 ± 2.0 × 10-3 M&sun; is still present in this disc, in agreement with earlier CO observations. Herschel is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation from NASA

RoB 2: a revised tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials

Assessment of risk of bias is regarded as an essential component of a systematic review on the effects of an intervention. The most commonly used tool for randomised trials is the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool. We updated the tool to respond to developments in understanding how bias arises in randomised trials, and to address user feedback on and limitations of the original tool