Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models

Forest models are instrumental for understanding and projecting the impact of climate change on forests. A considerable number of forest models have been developed in the last decades. However, few systematic and comprehensive model comparisons have been performed in Europe that combine an evaluation of modelled carbon and water fluxes and forest structure. We evaluate 13 widely used, state-of-the-art, stand-scale forest models against field measurements of forest structure and eddy-covariance data of carbon and water fluxes over multiple decades across an environmental gradient at nine typical European forest stands. We test the models' performance in three dimensions: accuracy of local predictions (agreement of modelled and observed annual data), realism of environmental responses (agreement of modelled and observed responses of daily gross primary productivity to temperature, radiation and vapour pressure deficit) and general applicability (proportion of European tree species covered). We find that multiple models are available that excel according to our three dimensions of model performance. For the accuracy of local predictions, variables related to forest structure have lower random and systematic errors than annual carbon and water flux variables. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean provided overall more realistic daily productivity responses to environmental drivers across all sites than any single individual model. The general applicability of the models is high, as almost all models are currently able to cover Europe's common tree species. We show that forest models complement each other in their response to environmental drivers and that there are several cases in which individual models outperform the model ensemble. Our framework provides a first step to capturing essential differences between forest models that go beyond the most commonly used accuracy of predictions. Overall, this study provides a point of reference for future model work aimed at predicting climate impacts and supporting climate mitigation and adaptation measures in forests.Peer reviewe

Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.</p

Search for new physics in multijet events with at least one photon and large missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at 13 TeV

A search for new physics in final states consisting of at least one photon, multiple jets, and large missing transverse momentum is presented, using proton-proton collision events at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb−1, recorded by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC from 2016 to 2018. The events are divided into mutually exclusive bins characterized by the missing transverse momentum, the number of jets, the number of b-tagged jets, and jets consistent with the presence of hadronically decaying W, Z, or Higgs bosons. The observed data are found to be consistent with the prediction from standard model processes. The results are interpreted in the context of simplified models of pair production of supersymmetric particles via strong and electroweak interactions. Depending on the details of the signal models, gluinos and squarks of masses up to 2.35 and 1.43 TeV, respectively, and electroweakinos of masses up to 1.23 TeV are excluded at 95% confidence level

Observation of the Rare Decay of the η Meson to Four Muons

A search for the rare η→μ+μ−μ+μ− double-Dalitz decay is performed using a sample of proton-proton collisions, collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC with high-rate muon triggers during 2017 and 2018 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101  fb−1. A signal having a statistical significance well in excess of 5 standard deviations is observed. Using the η→μ+μ− decay as normalization, the branching fraction B(η→μ+μ−μ+μ−)=[5.0±0.8(stat)±0.7(syst)±0.7(B2μ)]×10−9 is measured, where the last term is the uncertainty in the normalization channel branching fraction. This work achieves an improved precision of over 5 orders of magnitude compared to previous results, leading to the first measurement of this branching fraction, which is found to agree with theoretical predictions

First measurement of the top quark pair production cross section in proton-proton collisions at s \sqrt{s} = 13.6 TeV

The first measurement of the top quark pair (tt¯) production cross section in proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13.6 TeV is presented. Data recorded with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC in Summer 2022, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.21 fb−1, are analyzed. Events are selected with one or two charged leptons (electrons or muons) and additional jets. A maximum likelihood fit is performed in event categories defined by the number and flavors of the leptons, the number of jets, and the number of jets identified as originating from b quarks. An inclusive tt¯ production cross section of 881 ± 23 (stat + syst) ± 20 (lumi) pb is measured, in agreement with the standard model prediction of 924+32−40 pb

Measurements of inclusive and differential cross sections for the Higgs boson production and decay to four-leptons in proton-proton collisions at s \sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

Measurements of the inclusive and differential fiducial cross sections for the Higgs boson production in the H → ZZ → 4ℓ (ℓ = e, μ) decay channel are presented. The results are obtained from the analysis of proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. The measured inclusive fiducial cross section is 2.73 ± 0.26 fb, in agreement with the standard model expectation of 2.86 ± 0.1 fb. Differential cross sections are measured as a function of several kinematic observables sensitive to the Higgs boson production and decay to four leptons. A set of double-differential measurements is also performed, yielding a comprehensive characterization of the four leptons final state. Constraints on the Higgs boson trilinear coupling and on the bottom and charm quark coupling modifiers are derived from its transverse momentum distribution. All results are consistent with theoretical predictions from the standard model

Search for Scalar Leptoquarks Produced via τ-Lepton-Quark Scattering in pppp Collisions at s=13TeV\sqrt{s}=13 TeV

The first search for scalar leptoquarks produced in τ-lepton–quark collisions is presented. It is based on a set of proton-proton collision data recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138  fb$^{−1}$. The reconstructed final state consists of a jet, significant missing transverse momentum, and a τ lepton reconstructed through its hadronic or leptonic decays. Limits are set on the product of the leptoquark production cross section and branching fraction and interpreted as exclusions in the plane of the leptoquark mass and the leptoquark-τ-quark coupling strength

The clinical relevance of oliguria in the critically ill patient : Analysis of a large observational database

Funding Information: Marc Leone reports receiving consulting fees from Amomed and Aguettant; lecture fees from MSD, Pfizer, Octapharma, 3 M, Aspen, Orion; travel support from LFB; and grant support from PHRC IR and his institution. JLV is the Editor-in-Chief of Critical Care. The other authors declare that they have no relevant financial interests. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Background: Urine output is widely used as one of the criteria for the diagnosis and staging of acute renal failure, but few studies have specifically assessed the role of oliguria as a marker of acute renal failure or outcomes in general intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Using a large multinational database, we therefore evaluated the occurrence of oliguria (defined as a urine output 16 years) patients in the ICON audit who had a urine output measurement on the day of admission were included. To investigate the association between oliguria and mortality, we used a multilevel analysis. Results: Of the 8292 patients included, 2050 (24.7%) were oliguric during the first 24 h of admission. Patients with oliguria on admission who had at least one additional 24-h urine output recorded during their ICU stay (n = 1349) were divided into three groups: transient - oliguria resolved within 48 h after the admission day (n = 390 [28.9%]), prolonged - oliguria resolved > 48 h after the admission day (n = 141 [10.5%]), and permanent - oliguria persisting for the whole ICU stay or again present at the end of the ICU stay (n = 818 [60.6%]). ICU and hospital mortality rates were higher in patients with oliguria than in those without, except for patients with transient oliguria who had significantly lower mortality rates than non-oliguric patients. In multilevel analysis, the need for RRT was associated with a significantly higher risk of death (OR = 1.51 [95% CI 1.19-1.91], p = 0.001), but the presence of oliguria on admission was not (OR = 1.14 [95% CI 0.97-1.34], p = 0.103). Conclusions: Oliguria is common in ICU patients and may have a relatively benign nature if only transient. The duration of oliguria and need for RRT are associated with worse outcome.publishersversionPeer reviewe