Early 2016/17 vaccine effectiveness estimates against influenza A(H3N2): I-MOVE multicentre case control studies at primary care and hospital levels in Europe

I-MOVE/I-MOVE+ study team: Portugal - Baltazar Nunes, Ausenda Machado, Ana Paula Rodrigues, Verónica Gomez, Irina Kislaya, Mafalda Sousa Uva (Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge); Raquel Guiomar, Pedro Pechirra, Paula Cristóvão, Patrícia Conde, Inês Costa (Departamento de Doenças Infeciosas, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge).I-MOVE/I-MOVE+study team - Portugal: Baltazar Nunes, Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge; Ausenda Machado, Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge; Ana Paula Rodrigues, Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge; Verónica Gomez, Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge; Irina Kislaya, Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge; Mafalda Sousa Uva, Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge; Raquel Guiomar, Departamento de Doenças Infeciosas, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge; Pedro Pechirra, Departamento de Doenças Infeciosas, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge; Paula Cristóvão, Departamento de Doenças Infeciosas, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge; Patrícia Conde, Departamento de Doenças Infeciosas, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo; Jorge Inês Costa, Departamento de Doenças Infeciosas, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge.We measured early 2016/17 season influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against influenza A(H3N2) in Europe using multicentre case control studies at primary care and hospital levels. IVE at primary care level was 44.1%, 46.9% and 23.4% among 0-14, 15-64 and ≥ 65 year-olds, and 25.7% in the influenza vaccination target group. At hospital level, IVE was 2.5%, 7.9% and 2.4% among ≥ 65, 65-79 and ≥ 80 year-olds. As in previous seasons, we observed suboptimal IVE against influenza A(H3N2).This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 634446.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Early estimates of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness in Europe: results from the I-MOVE multicentre case-control study, 2012/13

Baltazar Nunes: member of the I-MOVE case–control study teamWe conducted a test-negative case–control study based in five European sentinel surveillance networks. The early 2012/13 adjusted influenza vaccine effectiveness was 78.2% (95% CI: 18.0 to 94.2) against influenza B, 62.1% (95% CI: −22.9 to 88.3%) against A(H1)pdm09, 41.9 (95% CI: −67.1 to 79.8) against A(H3N2) and 50.4% (95% CI: −20.7 to 79.6) against all influenza types in the target groups for vaccination. Efforts to improve influenza vaccines should continue to better protect those at risk of severe illness or complications

I-MOVE multicentre case–control study 2010/11 to 2014/15 : is there within-season waning of influenza type/subtype vaccine effectiveness with increasing time since vaccination?

Influenza vaccines are currently the best method available to prevent seasonal influenza infection. In most European countries one dose (or two doses for children) of seasonal vaccine is given from September to December to the elderly and other target groups for vaccination. In Europe, influenza seasons can last until mid-May (1), and it is expected that vaccination conveys protection on the individual for the duration of the season. In 13/15 reviewed studies on the length of vaccine-induced protection among the elderly, using anti-haemagglutination antibody titres as a proxy for seroprotection levels, seroprotection rates lasted at least >4 months after vaccination (2). However in the 2011-12 influenza season various studies in Europe reported a decrease in influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against A(H3N2) over time within the season (3–5). In the United States, a decrease in VE against A(H3N2) with time since vaccination was suggested in the 2007-8 influenza season (6). The observed decrease of VE over time can be explained by viral change (notably antigenic drift) occurring in the season. Drift in B viruses may be slower than in A viruses (7), and A(H3N2) viruses undergo antigenic drift more frequently than A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses (8). The decrease of VE over time can also be explained by a waning of the immunity conferred by the vaccine independently from viral changes. If vaccine-induced protection wanes more rapidly during the season, then depending on the start and duration of the influenza season, the decline of VE may cause increases in overall incidence, hospitalisations and deaths. Changes to vaccination strategies (timing and boosters) may be needed. As anti-haemagglutination antibody titres are not well defined as a correlate of protection (9,10), vaccine efficacy (as measured in trials) or vaccine effectiveness observational studies may be one way to measure vaccine-induced protection. These studies require a large sample size to model VE by time since vaccination and currently, most of the seasonal observational studies lack the precision required to provide evidence for waning immunity. In this study we pooled data across five post-pandemic seasons (2010/11-2014/15) from the I-MOVE (Influenza - Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness) multicentre case control studies (1,3,11,12), to obtain a greater sample size to study the effects of time since vaccination on influenza type/subtype-specific VE. We measure influenza type/subtype-specific VE by time since vaccination for the overall season, but also in the early influenza phase; under the hypothesis that virological changes are fewer in the early season, but waning of the vaccine effect should be present regardless of time within the influenza phase

Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalisation in adults (≥ 20 years) during Omicron-dominant circulation: I-MOVE-COVID-19 and VEBIS SARI VE networks, Europe, 2021 to 2022

Introduction: The I-MOVE-COVID-19 and VEBIS hospital networks have been measuring COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in participating European countries since early 2021. Aim: We aimed to measure VE against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in patients ≥ 20 years hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) from December 2021 to July 2022 (Omicron-dominant period). Methods: In both networks, 46 hospitals (13 countries) follow a similar test-negative case-control protocol. We defined complete primary series vaccination (PSV) and first booster dose vaccination as last dose of either vaccine received ≥ 14 days before symptom onset (stratifying first booster into received < 150 and ≥ 150 days after last PSV dose). We measured VE overall, by vaccine category/product, age group and time since first mRNA booster dose, adjusting by site as a fixed effect, and by swab date, age, sex, and presence/absence of at least one commonly collected chronic condition. Results: We included 2,779 cases and 2,362 controls. The VE of all vaccine products combined against hospitalisation for laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 was 43% (95% CI: 29-54) for complete PSV (with last dose received ≥ 150 days before onset), while it was 59% (95% CI: 51-66) after addition of one booster dose. The VE was 85% (95% CI: 78-89), 70% (95% CI: 61-77) and 36% (95% CI: 17-51) for those with onset 14-59 days, 60-119 days and 120-179 days after booster vaccination, respectively. Conclusions: Our results suggest that, during the Omicron period, observed VE against SARI hospitalisation improved with first mRNA booster dose, particularly for those having symptom onset < 120 days after first booster dose.Key public health message: 1. What did you want to address in this study? In order to understand how well the COVID-19 vaccine is performing in Europe against hospitalisation during the period when the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant was circulating, we investigated vaccine effectiveness using data from a multi-country study of complete and booster-dose COVID-19 vaccination among adults aged 20 years and over. 2. What have we learnt from this study? Between December 2021 and July 2022, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 was 43% for complete vaccination. With addition of an mRNA booster dose, effectiveness was 59% overall. It was higher when onset of illness was close to the date of the last vaccination, at 85% when last booster dose was 14–59 days before onset, at 70% for 60–119 days, and falling below 40% for 120–179 days. 3. What are the implications of your findings for public health? In European hospital settings in 2022, during the Omicron period, COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccine provided an improved benefit for preventing hospitalisation, particularly if disease onset was within 4 months of receiving the booster dose.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza A subtypes in Europe: Results from the 2021-2022 I-MOVE primary care multicentre study

Background: In 2021-2022, influenza A viruses dominated in Europe. The I-MOVE primary care network conducted a multicentre test-negative study to measure influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Methods: Primary care practitioners collected information on patients presenting with acute respiratory infection. Cases were influenza A(H3N2) or A(H1N1)pdm09 RT-PCR positive, and controls were influenza virus negative. We calculated VE using logistic regression, adjusting for study site, age, sex, onset date, and presence of chronic conditions. Results: Between week 40 2021 and week 20 2022, we included over 11 000 patients of whom 253 and 1595 were positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2), respectively. Overall VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 75% (95% CI: 43-89) and 81% (95% CI: 45-93) among those aged 15-64 years. Overall VE against influenza A(H3N2) was 29% (95% CI: 12-42) and 25% (95% CI: -41 to 61), 33% (95% CI: 14-49), and 26% (95% CI: -22 to 55) among those aged 0-14, 15-64, and over 65 years, respectively. The A(H3N2) VE among the influenza vaccination target group was 20% (95% CI: -6 to 39). All 53 sequenced A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses belonged to clade 6B.1A.5a.1. Among 410 sequenced influenza A(H3N2) viruses, all but eight belonged to clade 3C.2a1b.2a.2. Discussion: Despite antigenic mismatch between vaccine and circulating strains for influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09, 2021-2022 VE estimates against circulating influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 were the highest within the I-MOVE network since the 2009 influenza pandemic. VE against A(H3N2) was lower than A(H1N1)pdm09, but at least one in five individuals vaccinated against influenza were protected against presentation to primary care with laboratory-confirmed influenza.This project has received funding from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control with in the framework contract ECDC/2018/029.S

Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalisation in adults (≥ 20 years) during Alpha- and Delta-dominant circulation: I-MOVE-COVID-19 and VEBIS SARI VE networks, Europe, 2021

Members of the I-MOVE-COVID-19 and VEBIS hospital study teams (in addition to the named authors): Svjetlana Karabuva, Petra Tomaš Petrić, Marija Marković, Sandra Ljubičić, Bojana Mahmutović, Irena Tabain, Petra Smoljo, Iva Pem Novosel, Tanya Melillo, John Paul Cauchi, Benédicte Lissoir, Xavier Holemans, Marc Hainaut, Nicolas Dauby, Benedicte Delaere, Marc Bourgeois, Evelyn Petit, Marijke Reynders, Door Jouck, Koen Magerman, Marieke Bleyen, Melissa Vermeulen, Sébastien Fierens, François Dufrasne, Siel Daelemans, Ala’a Al Kerwi, Francoise Berthet, Guy Fagherazzi, Myriam Alexandre, Charlene Bennett, Jim Christle, Jeff Connell, Peter Doran, Laura Feeney, Binita Maharjan, Sinead McDermott, Rosa McNamara, Nadra Nurdin, Salif Mamadou Cissé, Anne-Sophie L'Honneur, Xavier Duval, Yolande Costa, Fidouh Nadhira, Florence Galtier, Laura Crantelle, Vincent Foulongne, Phillipe Vanhems, Sélilah Amour, Bruno Lina, Fabrice Lainé, Laetitia Gallais, Gisèle Lagathu, Anna Maisa, Yacine Saidi, Christine Durier, Rebecca Bauer, Ana Paula Rodrigues, Adriana Silva, Raquel Guiomar, Margarida Tavares, Débora Pereira, Maria José Manata, Heidi Gruner, André Almeida, Paula Pinto, Cristina Bárbara, Itziar Casado, Ana Miqueleiz, Ana Navascués, Camino Trobajo-Sanmartín, Miguel Fernández-Huerta, María Eugenia Portillo, Carmen Ezpeleta, Nerea Egüés, Manuel García Cenoz, Eva Ardanaz, Marcela Guevara, Conchi Moreno-Iribas, Hana Orlíková, Carmen Mihaela Dorobat, Carmen Manciuc, Simin Aysel Florescu, Alexandru Marin, Sorin Dinu, Catalina Pascu, Alina Ivanciuc, Iulia Bistriceanu, Mihaela Oprea, Maria Elena Mihai, Silke Buda, Ute Preuss, Marianne Wedde, Auksė Mickienė, Giedrė Gefenaitė, Alain Moren, Anthony NardoneIntroduction: Two large multicentre European hospital networks have estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 since 2021. Aim: We aimed to measure VE against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in hospitalised severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) patients ≥ 20 years, combining data from these networks during Alpha (March–June)- and Delta (June–December)-dominant periods, 2021. Methods: Forty-six participating hospitals across 14 countries follow a similar generic protocol using the test-negative case–control design. We defined complete primary series vaccination (PSV) as two doses of a two-dose or one of a single-dose vaccine ≥ 14 days before onset. Results: We included 1,087 cases (538 controls) and 1,669 cases (1,442 controls) in the Alpha- and Delta-dominant periods, respectively. During the Alpha period, VE against hospitalisation with SARS-CoV2 for complete Comirnaty PSV was 85% (95% CI: 69–92) overall and 75% (95% CI: 42–90) in those aged ≥ 80 years. During the Delta period, among SARI patients ≥ 20 years with symptom onset ≥ 150 days from last PSV dose, VE for complete Comirnaty PSV was 54% (95% CI: 18–74). Among those receiving Comirnaty PSV and mRNA booster (any product) ≥ 150 days after last PSV dose, VE was 91% (95% CI: 57–98). In time-since-vaccination analysis, complete all-product PSV VE was > 90% in those with their last dose < 90 days before onset; ≥ 70% in those 90–179 days before onset. Conclusions: Our results from this EU multi-country hospital setting showed that VE for complete PSV alone was higher in the Alpha- than the Delta-dominant period, and addition of a first booster dose during the latter period increased VE to over 90%.Key public health message: - What did you want to address in this study? To understand how well the COVID-19 vaccine was performing in Europe against hospitalisation during SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variant periods, we present vaccine effectiveness results from a multi-country study of complete and booster dose COVID-19 vaccination among adults (aged 20 years and over). - What have we learnt from this study? Between March and June 2021 (Alpha period), vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 was 43% for partial vaccination and 86% for complete vaccination. For June to December 2021 (Delta period), vaccine effectiveness for complete vaccination was lower (52%) but with addition of an mRNA booster dose, effectiveness reached 91%, and remained > 90% up to 119 days after the booster dose. - What are the implications of your findings for public health? In Europe in 2021, COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness results for the Alpha period indicated an excellent benefit for preventing hospitalisation after complete vaccination. During Delta variant circulation, however, a booster dose was required to achieve this level of effectiveness, and this was maintained for up to 4 months post booster.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults aged 65 years and older in primary care: I-MOVE-COVID-19 project, Europe, December 2020 to May 2021

I-MOVE-COVID-19 primary care study team (in addition to authors above): Nick Andrews, Jamie Lopez Bernal, Heather Whitaker, Caroline Guerrisi, Titouan Launay, Shirley Masse, Sylvie van der Werf, Vincent Enouf, John Cuddihy, Adele McKenna, Michael Joyce, Cillian de Gascun, Joanne Moran, Ana Miqueleiz, Ana Navascués, Camino Trobajo-Sanmartín, Carmen Ezpeleta, Paula López Moreno, Javier Gorricho, Eva Ardanaz, Fernando Baigorria, Aurelio Barricarte, Enrique de la Cruz, Nerea Egüés, Manuel García Cenoz, Marcela Guevara, Conchi Moreno-Iribas, Carmen Sayón, Verónica Gomez, Baltazar Nunes, Rita Roquete, Adriana Silva, Aryse Melo, Inês Costa, Nuno Verdasca, Patrícia Conde, Diogo FP Marques, Anna Molesworth, Leanne Quinn, Miranda Leyton, Selin Campbell, Janine Thoulass, Jim McMenamin, Ana Martínez Mateo, Luca Basile, Daniel Castrillejo, Carmen Quiñones Rubio, Concepción Delgado-Sanz, Jesús Oliva.The I-MOVE-COVID-19 network collates epidemiological and clinical information on patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19), including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virological characterisation in 11 European countries [1]. One component of I-MOVE-COVID-19 is the multicentre vaccine effectiveness (VE) study at primary care/outpatient level in nine European study sites in eight countries. We measured overall and product-specific COVID-19 VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection among those aged 65 years and older. We also measured VE by time since vaccination.This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003673.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The European I-MOVE Multicentre 2013-2014 Case-Control Study. Homogeneous moderate influenza vaccine effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09 and heterogenous results by country against A(H3N2).

In the first five I-MOVE (Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe) influenza seasons vaccine effectiveness (VE) results were relatively homogenous among participating study sites. In 2013-2014, we undertook a multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks in six European Union (EU) countries to measure 2013-2014 influenza VE against medically-attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as influenza. Influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses co-circulated during the season. Practitioners systematically selected ILI patients to swab within eight days of symptom onset. We compared cases (ILI positive to influenza A(H3N2) or A(H1N1)pdm09) to influenza negative patients. We calculated VE for the two influenza A subtypes and adjusted for potential confounders. We calculated heterogeneity between sites using the I(2) index and Cochrane's Q test. If the I(2) was 49% we used a two-stage random effects model. We included in the A(H1N1)pdm09 analysis 531 cases and 1712 controls and in the A(H3N2) analysis 623 cases and 1920 controls. For A(H1N1)pdm09, the Q test (p=0.695) and the I(2) index (0%) suggested no heterogeneity of adjusted VE between study sites. Using a one-stage model, the overall pooled adjusted VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 was 47.5% (95% CI: 16.4-67.0). For A(H3N2), the I(2) was 51.5% (p=0.067). Using a two-stage model for the pooled analysis, the adjusted VE against A(H3N2) was 29.7 (95% CI: -34.4-63.2). The results suggest a moderate 2013-2014 influenza VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 and a low VE against A(H3N2). The A(H3N2) estimates were heterogeneous among study sites. Larger sample sizes by study site are needed to prevent statistical heterogeneity, decrease variability and allow for two-stage pooled VE for all subgroup analyses.S

2015/16 I-MOVE/I-MOVE+ multicentre case-control study in Europe: Moderate vaccine effectiveness estimates against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and low estimates against lineage-mismatched influenza B among children

BACKGROUND: During the 2015/16 influenza season in Europe, the cocirculating influenza viruses were A(H1N1)pdm09 and B/Victoria, which was antigenically distinct from the B/Yamagata component in the trivalent influenza vaccine. METHODS: We used the test-negative design in a multicentre case-control study in twelve European countries to measure 2015/16 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as influenza. General practitioners swabbed a systematic sample of consulting ILI patients and a random sample of influenza-positive swabs was sequenced. We calculated adjusted VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H1N1)pdm09 genetic group 6B.1 and influenza B overall and by age group. RESULTS: We included 11 430 ILI patients, of which 2272 were influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 2901 were influenza B cases. Overall VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 32.9% (95% CI: 15.5-46.7). Among those aged 0-14, 15-64 and ≥65 years, VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 31.9% (95% CI: -32.3 to 65.0), 41.4% (95% CI: 20.5-56.7) and 13.2% (95% CI: -38.0 to 45.3), respectively. Overall VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 genetic group 6B.1 was 32.8% (95% CI: -4.1 to 56.7). Among those aged 0-14, 15-64 and ≥65 years, VE against influenza B was -47.6% (95% CI: -124.9 to 3.1), 27.3% (95% CI: -4.6 to 49.4) and 9.3% (95% CI: -44.1 to 42.9), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and its genetic group 6B.1 was moderate in children and adults, and low among individuals ≥65 years. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza B was low and heterogeneous among age groups. More information on effects of previous vaccination and previous infection is needed to understand the VE results against influenza B in the context of a mismatched vaccine.ECDC has contributed fund for the coordination and some study sites under the Framework contract no. ECDC/2014/026 for the individuals aged less than 65 years. The I‐MOVE/I‐MOVE+ study team is very grateful to all patients, general practitioners, paediatricians, hospital teams, laboratory teams and regional epidemiologists who have contributed to the study. We acknowledge the authors, originating and submitting laboratories of the sequences from GISAID's EpiFlu Database used for this study. All submitters of data may be contacted directly via the GISAID website http://www.gisaid.org.S

Low 2018/19 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) among 15-64-year-olds in Europe: exploration by birth cohort

IntroductionInfluenza A(H3N2) clades 3C.2a and 3C.3a co-circulated in Europe in 2018/19. Immunological imprinting by first childhood influenza infection may induce future birth cohort differences in vaccine effectiveness (VE).AimThe I-MOVE multicentre primary care test-negative study assessed 2018/19 influenza A(H3N2) VE by age and genetic subgroups to explore VE by birth cohort.MethodsWe measured VE against influenza A(H3N2) and (sub)clades. We stratified VE by usual age groups (0-14, 15-64, ≥ 65-years). To assess the imprint-regulated effect of vaccine (I-REV) hypothesis, we further stratified the middle-aged group, notably including 32-54-year-olds (1964-86) sharing potential childhood imprinting to serine at haemagglutinin position 159.ResultsInfluenza A(H3N2) VE among all ages was -1% (95% confidence interval (CI): -24 to 18) and 46% (95% CI: 8-68), -26% (95% CI: -66 to 4) and 20% (95% CI: -20 to 46) among 0-14, 15-64 and ≥ 65-year-olds, respectively. Among 15-64-year-olds, VE against clades 3C.2a1b and 3C.3a was 15% (95% CI: -34 to 50) and -74% (95% CI: -259 to 16), respectively. VE was -18% (95% CI: -140 to 41), -53% (95% CI: -131 to -2) and -12% (95% CI: -74 to 28) among 15-31-year-olds (1987-2003), 32-54-year-olds (1964-86) and 55-64-year-olds (1954-63), respectively.DiscussionThe lowest 2018/19 influenza A(H3N2) VE was against clade 3C.3a and among those born 1964-86, corresponding to the I-REV hypothesis. The low influenza A(H3N2) VE in 15-64-year-olds and the public health impact of the I-REV hypothesis warrant further study.We thank Dr Danuta Skowronski for detailed explanation of the I-REV hypothesis, shared discussions and helpful comments on our manuscript. We thank Pernille Jorgensen (WHO/Europe) for her continued support for the I-MOVE network over the years. We acknowledge the authors, originating and submitting laboratories of the sequences from GISAID's EpiFlu Database used for this study. All submitters of data may be contacted directly via the GISAID websitS