New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing

People’s views on population ageing are influenced by the statistics that they read about it. The statistical measures in common use today were first developed around a century ago, in a very different demographic environment. For around two decades, we have been studying population ageing and have been arguing that its conventional portrayal is misleading. In this chapter, we summarize some of that research, which provides an alternative picture of population ageing, one that is more appropriate for twenty-first century. More details about our new view of population ageing can be found in. (Sanderson and Scherbov 2019). Population ageing can be measured in different ways. An example of this can found in the UN’s Profiles in Ageing, 2017. One way is to report on the forecasted increase in the number of people 60+ years old in the world

Chapter 2 - Luminescence analysis (OSL and TL) from Karabai I

This chapter reports a pilot study by two luminescence laboratories on samples from the 2004 excavations of Karabai I. The Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre (SUERC) examined the optical stimulated luminescent (OSL) properties of the sediments using a method called luminescence profiling (Burbidge et al. 2007); the Max-Planck-Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Leipzig attempted to analyse the thermoluminescence (TL) age of a small collection of heated stones. Luminescence profiling is a rapid survey method for assessing the suitability of sediments for full dating based on the presence of particular minerals, grain-sizes and luminescence signals. At Karabai I the study revealed many factors that would complicate a subsequent full dating study, however a tentative age range of 60-115 ka was obtained using the ‘IRSL’ and ‘post IR & OSL TL’ signal from the polymineral coarse fraction. Luminescence signals based on quartz were found to be saturating and so could provide only minimum ages. Only one heated rock of sufficient mass, recovered in square 4H archaeological layer 2, exhibited acceptable properties for successful dating. The resulting TL age, 142 ± 23 ka (EVA-LUM-06/01), places Karabai I within MIS 6. This contrasts with the luminescence profile study that suggested sedimentary deposition within MIS 4-5. In both studies it is important to recognise the tentative nature of these conclusions

Multi-model simulations of the impact of international shipping on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in 2000 and 2030

The global impact of shipping on atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing, as well as the associated uncertainties, have been quantified using an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models and a predefined set of emission data. The analysis is performed for present-day conditions ( year 2000) and for two future ship emission scenarios. In one scenario ship emissions stabilize at 2000 levels; in the other ship emissions increase with a constant annual growth rate of 2.2% up to 2030 ( termed the "Constant Growth Scenario" (CGS)). Most other anthropogenic emissions follow the IPCC ( Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) SRES ( Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 scenario, while biomass burning and natural emissions remain at year 2000 levels. An intercomparison of the model results with observations over the Northern Hemisphere (25 degrees - 60 degrees N) oceanic regions in the lower troposphere showed that the models are capable to reproduce ozone (O-3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx= NO+ NO2) reasonably well, whereas sulphur dioxide (SO2) in the marine boundary layer is significantly underestimated. The most pronounced changes in annual mean tropospheric NO2 and sulphate columns are simulated over the Baltic and North Seas. Other significant changes occur over the North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico and along the main shipping lane from Europe to Asia, across the Red and Arabian Seas. Maximum contributions from shipping to annual mean near-surface O-3 are found over the North Atlantic ( 5 - 6 ppbv in 2000; up to 8 ppbv in 2030). Ship contributions to tropospheric O3 columns over the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans reach 1 DU in 2000 and up to 1.8 DU in 2030. Tropospheric O-3 forcings due to shipping are 9.8 +/- 2.0 mW/m(2) in 2000 and 13.6 +/- 2.3 mW/m(2) in 2030. Whilst increasing O-3, ship NOx simultaneously enhances hydroxyl radicals over the remote ocean, reducing the global methane lifetime by 0.13 yr in 2000, and by up to 0.17 yr in 2030, introducing a negative radiative forcing. The models show future increases in NOx and O-3 burden which scale almost linearly with increases in NOx emission totals. Increasing emissions from shipping would significantly counteract the benefits derived from reducing SO2 emissions from all other anthropogenic sources under the A2 scenario over the continents, for example in Europe. Globally, shipping contributes 3% to increases in O-3 burden between 2000 and 2030, and 4.5% to increases in sulphate under A2/CGS. However, if future ground based emissions follow a more stringent scenario, the relative importance of ship emissions will increase. Inter-model differences in the simulated O-3 contributions from ships are significantly smaller than estimated uncertainties stemming from the ship emission inventory, mainly the ship emission totals, the distribution of the emissions over the globe, and the neglect of ship plume dispersion

A multi-model study of the hemispheric transport and deposition of oxidised nitrogen.

Fifteen chemistry-transport models are used to quantify, for the first time, the export of oxidised nitrogen (NOy) to and from four regions (Europe, North America, South Asia, and East Asia), and to estimate the uncertainty in the results. Between 12 and 24% of the NOx emitted is exported from each region annually. The strongest impact of each source region on a foreign region is: Europe on East Asia, North America on Europe, South Asia on East Asia, and East Asia on North America. Europe exports the most NOy, and East Asia the least. East Asia receives the most NOy from the other regions. Between 8 and 15% of NOx emitted in each region is transported over distances larger than 1000 km, with 3–10% ultimately deposited over the foreign regions

Preheating in Supersymmetric Hybrid Inflation

We study preheating in a general class of supersymmetric hybrid inflation model. Supersymmetry leads to only one coupling constant in the potential and thus only one natural frequency of oscillation for the homogeneous fields, whose classical evolution consequently differs from that of a general (non-supersymmetric) hybrid model. We emphasise the importance of mixing effects in these models which can significantly change the rate of production of particles. We perform a general study of the rate of production of the particles associated with the homogeneous fields, and show how preheating is efficient in producing these quanta. Preheating of other particle species will be model dependent, and in order to investigate this we consider a realistic working model of supersymmetric hybrid inflation which solves the strong-CP problem via an approximate Peccei-Quinn symmetry, which was proposed by us previously. We study axion production in this model and show that properly taking into account the mixing between the fields suppresses the axion production, yet enhances the production of other particles. Finally we demonstrate the importance of backreaction effects in this model which have the effect of shutting off axion production, leaving the axion safely within experimental bounds.Comment: 37 pages, Latex, 11 eps figures, 14 ps (colour) figure

In-medium modifications of the ππ\pi\pi interaction in photon-induced reactions

Differential cross sections of the reactions $(\gamma,\pi^\circ\pi^\circ)$ and $(\gamma,\pi^\circ\pi^++\pi^\circ\pi^-)$ have been measured for several nuclei ($^1$H,$^{12}$C, and $^{\rm nat}$Pb) at an incident-photon energy of $E_{\gamma}$=400-460 MeV at the tagged-photon facility at MAMI-B using the TAPS spectrometer. A significant nuclear-mass dependence of the $\pi\pi$ invariant-mass distribution is found in the $\pi^\circ\pi^\circ$ channel. This dependence is not observed in the $\pi^\circ\pi^{+/-}$ channel and is consistent with an in-medium modification of the $\pi\pi$ interaction in the $I$=$J$=0 channel. The data are compared to $\pi$-induced measurements and to calculations within a chiral-unitary approach

The contested and contingent outcomes of Thatcherism in the UK

The death of Margaret Thatcher in April 2013 sparked a range of discussions and debates about the significance of her period in office and the political project to which she gave her name: Thatcherism. This article argues that Thatcherism is best understood as a symbolically important part of the emergence of first-phase neoliberalism. It engages with contemporary debates about Thatcherism among Marxist commentators and suggests that several apparently divergent positions can help us now reach a more useful analysis of Thatcherism’s short- and long-term outcomes for British political economy. The outcomes identified include: an initial crisis in the neoliberal project in the UK; the transformation of the party political system to be reflective of the politics of neoliberalism, rather than its contestation; long-term attempts at the inculcation of the neoliberal individual; de-industrialisation and financial sector dependence; and a fractured and partially unconscious working class. In all long-term outcomes, the contribution of Thatcherism is best understood as partial and largely negative, in that it cleared the way for a longer-term and more constructive attempt to embed neoliberal political economy. The paper concludes by suggesting that this analysis can inform current debates on the left of British politics about how to oppose and challenge the imposition of neoliberal discipline today