Intraday Patterns in the Cross-section of Stock Returns

Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, order imbalance, volatility, and bid-ask spreads exhibit similar patterns, but do not explain the return patterns. We also show that short-term return reversal is driven by temporary liquidity imbalances lasting less than an hour and bid-ask bounce. Timing trades can reduce execution costs by the equivalent of the effective spread

Momentum and the Disposition Effect: The Role of Individual Investors

We hypothesize that disposition effect-induced momentum documented in Grinblatt and Han (2005) should be stronger in stocks with greater individual investors’ presence since individual investors are more prone to the disposition effect. We find strong evidence for our hypothesis for a large sample of NYSE/AMEX/NASDAQ stocks from the end of 1980 to 2005. Our results hold across different momentum strategies using alternative ways of defining individual investors’ presence in a stock and maintain even after controlling for variables known to drive momentum. Furthermore, we find that our results are stronger for hard-to-value stocks consistent with the findings of Kumar (2009).Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/79368/1/j.1755-053X.2010.01107.x.pd

PIN, adjusted PIN, and PSOS : difference of opinion in the Korean stock market

Duarte and Young (2009) decompose the probability of information‐based trading PIN into adjusted PIN (AdjPIN) and probability of trading caused by symmetric order flow shocks (PSOS). We explore sources of PSOS in the Korean stock market and examine the relation between PSOS and stock returns. Using transaction data with trader types and initiator information, we find that AdjPIN is not priced, while PSOS is negatively priced, a finding that Lai et al. (2014) label “puzzling.” We find that the negative price of PSOS comes from differences of opinion among domestic individual investors on the significance of public news

Explaining turn of the year order flow imbalance

The paper provides evidence of a turn of the year effect in the order flow imbalance of both retail and institutional investors. In December there is net selling pressure which is reversed in January. We examine high frequency intraday order flow information and find that the changes in order flow imbalance between December and January are related to firm risk factors and characteristics. We find that retail order flow imbalances are associated with a wide range of risk characteristics including beta, illiquidity and unsystematic risk. Imbalances in institutional order flow are associated with only a small number of risk variables. We show that these order flow changes are important because risk premiums are elevated in January. Our results are robust to the effects of decimalization

A Trade-Based Analysis of Momentum

This article uses transactions data for all NYSE/AMEX stocks in the period 1983--2002 to study how investors trade in Jegadeesh and Titman's (1993) momentum portfolios. Among small trades, there is an extremely sluggish reaction to the past returns. For instance, an initial small-trade buying pressure exists for loser stocks, and it gradually converts into an intense selling pressure over the following year. The results are consistent with initial underreaction followed by delayed reaction among small traders. Moreover, small-trade imbalances during the formation period significantly affect momentum returns, suggesting that underreaction among small traders contributes to the momentum effect. Large traders, by contrast, show no evidence of underreaction, and large-trade imbalances have little impact on subsequent returns. Overall, the results suggest that momentum could partly be driven by the behavior of small traders. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

Small Trades and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

This paper uses volume arising from small trades to analyze the relationship between retail investor trading behavior and the cross-section of future stock returns. The central finding is that stocks with intense sell-initiated small-trade volume, measured over the past several months, outperform stocks with intense buy-initiated small-trade volume. This return difference accrues from the first month after the portfolio formation up to two years later. Among small- and medium-sized firms, the return difference continues in the third year. The results suggest that stocks favored by retail investors subsequently experience prolonged underperformance relative to stocks out of favor with retail investors. The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]., Oxford University Press.