Variability of CONUS Lightning in 2003–12 and Associated Impacts

Changes in lightning characteristics over the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined to support the National Climate Assessment (NCA) program. Details of the variability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning characteristics over the decade 2003–12 are provided using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Changes in total (CG + cloud flash) lightning across part of the CONUS during the decade are provided using satellite Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data. The variations in NLDN-derived CG lightning are compared with available statistics on lightning-caused impacts to various U.S. economic sectors. Overall, a downward trend in total CG lightning count is found for the decadal period; the 5-yr mean NLDN CG count decreased by 12.8% from 25 204 345.8 (2003–07) to 21 986 578.8 (2008–12). There is a slow upward trend in the fraction and number of positive-polarity CG lightning, however. Associated lightning-caused fatalities and injuries, and the number of lightning-caused wildland fires and burn acreage also trended downward, but crop and personal-property damage costs increased. The 5-yr mean LIS total lightning changed little over the decadal period. Whereas the CONUS-averaged dry-bulb temperature trended upward during the analysis period, the CONUS-averaged wet-bulb temperature (a variable that is better correlated with lightning activity) trended downward. A simple linear model shows that climate-induced changes in CG lightning frequency would likely have a substantial and direct impact on humankind (e.g., a long-term upward trend of 1°C in wet-bulb temperature corresponds to approximately 14 fatalities and over $367 million in personal-property damage resulting from lightning)

WARNING: Physics Envy May Be Hazardous To Your Wealth!

The quantitative aspirations of economists and financial analysts have for many years been based on the belief that it should be possible to build models of economic systems - and financial markets in particular - that are as predictive as those in physics. While this perspective has led to a number of important breakthroughs in economics, "physics envy" has also created a false sense of mathematical precision in some cases. We speculate on the origins of physics envy, and then describe an alternate perspective of economic behavior based on a new taxonomy of uncertainty. We illustrate the relevance of this taxonomy with two concrete examples: the classical harmonic oscillator with some new twists that make physics look more like economics, and a quantitative equity market-neutral strategy. We conclude by offering a new interpretation of tail events, proposing an "uncertainty checklist" with which our taxonomy can be implemented, and considering the role that quants played in the current financial crisis.Comment: v3 adds 2 reference

Predicted risks of radiogenic cardiac toxicity in two pediatric patients undergoing photon or proton radiotherapy

BACKGROUND: Hodgkin disease (HD) and medulloblastoma (MB) are common malignancies found in children and young adults, and radiotherapy is part of the standard treatment. It was reported that these patients who received radiation therapy have an increased risk of cardiovascular late effects. We compared the predicted risk of developing radiogenic cardiac toxicity after photon versus proton radiotherapies for a pediatric patient with HD and a pediatric patient with MB. METHODS: In the treatment plans, each patient’s heart was contoured in fine detail, including substructures of the pericardium and myocardium. Risk calculations took into account both therapeutic and stray radiation doses. We calculated the relative risk (RR) of cardiac toxicity using a linear risk model and the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) values using relative seriality and Lyman models. Uncertainty analyses were also performed. RESULTS: The RR values of cardiac toxicity for the HD patient were 7.27 (proton) and 8.37 (photon), respectively; the RR values for the MB patient were 1.28 (proton) and 8.39 (photon), respectively. The predicted NTCP values for the HD patient were 2.17% (proton) and 2.67% (photon) for the myocardium, and were 2.11% (proton) and 1.92% (photon) for the whole heart. The predicted ratios of NTCP values (proton/photon) for the MB patient were much less than unity. Uncertainty analyses revealed that the predicted ratio of risk between proton and photon therapies was sensitive to uncertainties in the NTCP model parameters and the mean radiation weighting factor for neutrons, but was not sensitive to heart structure contours. The qualitative findings of the study were not sensitive to uncertainties in these factors. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that proton and photon radiotherapies confer similar predicted risks of cardiac toxicity for the HD patient in this study, and that proton therapy reduced the predicted risk for the MB patient in this study

The institutions of archaic post-modernity and their organizational and managerial consequences: The case of Portugal

The long march of modernization of the Western societies tends to be presented as following a regular sequence: societies and institutions were pre-modern, and then they were modernized, eventually becoming post-modern. Such teleology may provide an incomplete or distorted narrative of societal evolution in many parts of the world, even in the ‘post-modern heartland’ of Western Europe, with Portugal being a case in point. The concept of archaic post-modernity has been developed by a philosopher, José Gil, to show how Portuguese institutions and organizations combine elements of pre-modernity and post-modernity. The notion of an archaic post-modernity is advanced in order to provide an alternative account of the modernization process, which enriches discussion of the varieties of capitalism. Differences in historical experiences create singularities that may be considered in the analysis of culture, management and organization

Comprehensive Rare Variant Analysis via Whole-Genome Sequencing to Determine the Molecular Pathology of Inherited Retinal Disease

Inherited retinal disease is a common cause of visual impairment and represents a highly heterogeneous group of conditions. Here, we present findings from a cohort of 722 individuals with inherited retinal disease, who have had whole-genome sequencing (n = 605), whole-exome sequencing (n = 72), or both (n = 45) performed, as part of the NIHR-BioResource Rare Diseases research study. We identified pathogenic variants (single-nucleotide variants, indels, or structural variants) for 404/722 (56%) individuals. Whole-genome sequencing gives unprecedented power to detect three categories of pathogenic variants in particular: structural variants, variants in GC-rich regions, which have significantly improved coverage compared to whole-exome sequencing, and variants in non-coding regulatory regions. In addition to previously reported pathogenic regulatory variants, we have identified a previously unreported pathogenic intronic variant in $\textit{CHM}$ in two males with choroideremia. We have also identified 19 genes not previously known to be associated with inherited retinal disease, which harbor biallelic predicted protein-truncating variants in unsolved cases. Whole-genome sequencing is an increasingly important comprehensive method with which to investigate the genetic causes of inherited retinal disease.This work was supported by The National Institute for Health Research England (NIHR) for the NIHR BioResource – Rare Diseases project (grant number RG65966). The Moorfields Eye Hospital cohort of patients and clinical and imaging data were ascertained and collected with the support of grants from the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at Moorfields Eye Hospital, National Health Service Foundation Trust, and UCL Institute of Ophthalmology, Moorfields Eye Hospital Special Trustees, Moorfields Eye Charity, the Foundation Fighting Blindness (USA), and Retinitis Pigmentosa Fighting Blindness. M.M. is a recipient of an FFB Career Development Award. E.M. is supported by UCLH/UCL NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. F.L.R. and D.G. are supported by Cambridge NIHR Biomedical Research Centre

Case Reports1. A Late Presentation of Loeys-Dietz Syndrome: Beware of TGFβ Receptor Mutations in Benign Joint Hypermobility

Background: Thoracic aortic aneurysms (TAA) and dissections are not uncommon causes of sudden death in young adults. Loeys-Dietz syndrome (LDS) is a rare, recently described, autosomal dominant, connective tissue disease characterized by aggressive arterial aneurysms, resulting from mutations in the transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ) receptor genes TGFBR1 and TGFBR2. Mean age at death is 26.1 years, most often due to aortic dissection. We report an unusually late presentation of LDS, diagnosed following elective surgery in a female with a long history of joint hypermobility. Methods: A 51-year-old Caucasian lady complained of chest pain and headache following a dural leak from spinal anaesthesia for an elective ankle arthroscopy. CT scan and echocardiography demonstrated a dilated aortic root and significant aortic regurgitation. MRA demonstrated aortic tortuosity, an infrarenal aortic aneurysm and aneurysms in the left renal and right internal mammary arteries. She underwent aortic root repair and aortic valve replacement. She had a background of long-standing joint pains secondary to hypermobility, easy bruising, unusual fracture susceptibility and mild bronchiectasis. She had one healthy child age 32, after which she suffered a uterine prolapse. Examination revealed mild Marfanoid features. Uvula, skin and ophthalmological examination was normal. Results: Fibrillin-1 testing for Marfan syndrome (MFS) was negative. Detection of a c.1270G > C (p.Gly424Arg) TGFBR2 mutation confirmed the diagnosis of LDS. Losartan was started for vascular protection. Conclusions: LDS is a severe inherited vasculopathy that usually presents in childhood. It is characterized by aortic root dilatation and ascending aneurysms. There is a higher risk of aortic dissection compared with MFS. Clinical features overlap with MFS and Ehlers Danlos syndrome Type IV, but differentiating dysmorphogenic features include ocular hypertelorism, bifid uvula and cleft palate. Echocardiography and MRA or CT scanning from head to pelvis is recommended to establish the extent of vascular involvement. Management involves early surgical intervention, including early valve-sparing aortic root replacement, genetic counselling and close monitoring in pregnancy. Despite being caused by loss of function mutations in either TGFβ receptor, paradoxical activation of TGFβ signalling is seen, suggesting that TGFβ antagonism may confer disease modifying effects similar to those observed in MFS. TGFβ antagonism can be achieved with angiotensin antagonists, such as Losartan, which is able to delay aortic aneurysm development in preclinical models and in patients with MFS. Our case emphasizes the importance of timely recognition of vasculopathy syndromes in patients with hypermobility and the need for early surgical intervention. It also highlights their heterogeneity and the potential for late presentation. Disclosures: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead