Extirpation of Atlantic Cod from a Northwest Atlantic ecosystem in the absence of predator control: inference from an ecosystem model of intermediate complexity

Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL) declined to low abundance in the early 1990s and have since failed to recover due to high natural mortality, which has been linked to grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) predation. Increased grey seal harvests have been suggested to improve cod survival, however, predicting the response of cod to seal abundance changes in the sGSL is complicated by a hypothesized triangular food web involving seals, cod, and small pelagic fishes, wherein the pelagic fishes are prey for cod and grey seals, but may also prey on young cod. Grey seals may therefore have an indirect positive effect on prerecruit cod survival via predation on pelagic fish. Using a multispecies model of intermediate complexity fitted to various scientific and fisheries data, we found that seal predation accounted for the majority of recent cod mortality and that cod will likely be extirpated without a strong and rapid reduction in grey seal abundance. We did not find evidence that reducing grey seal abundance will result in large increases to herring biomass that could impair cod recovery.Comment: 41 pages, 10 figures, 2 tables, 5 appendice

Evaluating the potential impacts of grey seal predation and fishery bycatch/discards on cod productivity on the Western Scotian Shelf and in the Bay of Fundy

The recovery of many groundfish stocks throughout the Northwest Atlantic has been impeded by elevated natural (i.e., non-fishing) mortality (M) among older/larger individuals. The causes of elevated mortality are not well known, though predation by rapidly growing grey seal herds and unreported fishing are thought to be possible drivers of mortality for Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) on the Western Scotian Shelf and in the Bay of Fundy (known as "4X5Y cod") and in nearby ecosystems. We developed a statistical catch-at-age model for 4X5Y cod that accounted for both grey seal predation and estimated bycatch/discards to evaluate the degree to which either of these factors may influence cod mortality. The model was fit over a range of predation and discarding scenarios to account for uncertainties and a lack of data for these processes. We found that most cod M remained unaccounted for unless cod comprised a large proportion (>0.45) of the grey seal diet by weight. If the reported bycatch estimates are taken as accurate, then the magnitude of cod discards from non-directed fisheries was minor, though these estimates are highly uncertain.Comment: 27 pages, 4 tables, 10 figures, 2 appendice

Beyond Post-release Mortality: Inferences on Recovery Periods and Natural Mortality From Electronic Tagging Data for Discarded Lamnid Sharks

Accurately characterizing the biology of a pelagic shark species is critical when assessing its status and resilience to fishing pressure. Natural mortality (M) is well known to be a key parameter determining productivity and resilience, but also one for which estimates are most uncertain. While M can be inferred from life history, validated direct estimates are extremely rare for sharks. Porbeagle (Lamna nasus) and shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus) are presently overfished in the North Atlantic, but there are no directed fisheries and successful live release of bycatch is believed to have increased. Understanding M, post-release mortality (PRM), and variables that affect mortality are necessary for management and effective bycatch mitigation. From 177 deployments of archival satellite tags, we inferred mortality events, characterized physiological recovery periods following release, and applied survival mixture models to assess M and PRM. We also evaluated covariate effects on the duration of any recovery period and PRM to inform mitigation. Although large sample sizes involving extended monitoring periods (>90 days) would be optimal to directly estimate M from survival data, it was possible to constrain estimates and infer probable values for both species. Furthermore, the consistency of M estimates with values derived from longevity information suggests that age determination is relatively accurate for these species. Regarding bycatch mitigation, our analyses suggest that juvenile porbeagle are more susceptible to harm during capture and handling, that keeping lamnid sharks in the water during release is optimal, and that circle hooks are associated with longer recovery periods for shortfin mako.En prens

Altimetry for the future: Building on 25 years of progress

In 2018 we celebrated 25 years of development of radar altimetry, and the progress achieved by this methodology in the fields of global and coastal oceanography, hydrology, geodesy and cryospheric sciences. Many symbolic major events have celebrated these developments, e.g., in Venice, Italy, the 15th (2006) and 20th (2012) years of progress and more recently, in 2018, in Ponta Delgada, Portugal, 25 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry. On this latter occasion it was decided to collect contributions of scientists, engineers and managers involved in the worldwide altimetry community to depict the state of altimetry and propose recommendations for the altimetry of the future. This paper summarizes contributions and recommendations that were collected and provides guidance for future mission design, research activities, and sustainable operational radar altimetry data exploitation. Recommendations provided are fundamental for optimizing further scientific and operational advances of oceanographic observations by altimetry, including requirements for spatial and temporal resolution of altimetric measurements, their accuracy and continuity. There are also new challenges and new openings mentioned in the paper that are particularly crucial for observations at higher latitudes, for coastal oceanography, for cryospheric studies and for hydrology. The paper starts with a general introduction followed by a section on Earth System Science including Ocean Dynamics, Sea Level, the Coastal Ocean, Hydrology, the Cryosphere and Polar Oceans and the ‘‘Green” Ocean, extending the frontier from biogeochemistry to marine ecology. Applications are described in a subsequent section, which covers Operational Oceanography, Weather, Hurricane Wave and Wind Forecasting, Climate projection. Instruments’ development and satellite missions’ evolutions are described in a fourth section. A fifth section covers the key observations that altimeters provide and their potential complements, from other Earth observation measurements to in situ data. Section 6 identifies the data and methods and provides some accuracy and resolution requirements for the wet tropospheric correction, the orbit and other geodetic requirements, the Mean Sea Surface, Geoid and Mean Dynamic Topography, Calibration and Validation, data accuracy, data access and handling (including the DUACS system). Section 7 brings a transversal view on scales, integration, artificial intelligence, and capacity building (education and training). Section 8 reviews the programmatic issues followed by a conclusion

Nat Genet

The function of the majority of genes in the mouse and human genomes remains unknown. The mouse embryonic stem cell knockout resource provides a basis for the characterization of relationships between genes and phenotypes. The EUMODIC consortium developed and validated robust methodologies for the broad-based phenotyping of knockouts through a pipeline comprising 20 disease-oriented platforms. We developed new statistical methods for pipeline design and data analysis aimed at detecting reproducible phenotypes with high power. We acquired phenotype data from 449 mutant alleles, representing 320 unique genes, of which half had no previous functional annotation. We captured data from over 27,000 mice, finding that 83% of the mutant lines are phenodeviant, with 65% demonstrating pleiotropy. Surprisingly, we found significant differences in phenotype annotation according to zygosity. New phenotypes were uncovered for many genes with previously unknown function, providing a powerful basis for hypothesis generation and further investigation in diverse systems.Comment in : Genetic differential calculus. [Nat Genet. 2015] Comment in : Scaling up phenotyping studies. [Nat Biotechnol. 2015

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome associated with COVID-19: An Emulated Target Trial Analysis.

RATIONALE: Whether COVID patients may benefit from extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) compared with conventional invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effect of ECMO on 90-Day mortality vs IMV only Methods: Among 4,244 critically ill adult patients with COVID-19 included in a multicenter cohort study, we emulated a target trial comparing the treatment strategies of initiating ECMO vs. no ECMO within 7 days of IMV in patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (PaO2/FiO2 <80 or PaCO2 ≥60 mmHg). We controlled for confounding using a multivariable Cox model based on predefined variables. MAIN RESULTS: 1,235 patients met the full eligibility criteria for the emulated trial, among whom 164 patients initiated ECMO. The ECMO strategy had a higher survival probability at Day-7 from the onset of eligibility criteria (87% vs 83%, risk difference: 4%, 95% CI 0;9%) which decreased during follow-up (survival at Day-90: 63% vs 65%, risk difference: -2%, 95% CI -10;5%). However, ECMO was associated with higher survival when performed in high-volume ECMO centers or in regions where a specific ECMO network organization was set up to handle high demand, and when initiated within the first 4 days of MV and in profoundly hypoxemic patients. CONCLUSIONS: In an emulated trial based on a nationwide COVID-19 cohort, we found differential survival over time of an ECMO compared with a no-ECMO strategy. However, ECMO was consistently associated with better outcomes when performed in high-volume centers and in regions with ECMO capacities specifically organized to handle high demand. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

Discutindo a educação ambiental no cotidiano escolar: desenvolvimento de projetos na escola formação inicial e continuada de professores

A presente pesquisa buscou discutir como a Educação Ambiental (EA) vem sendo trabalhada, no Ensino Fundamental e como os docentes desta escola compreendem e vem inserindo a EA no cotidiano escolar., em uma escola estadual do município de Tangará da Serra/MT, Brasil. Para tanto, realizou-se entrevistas com os professores que fazem parte de um projeto interdisciplinar de EA na escola pesquisada. Verificou-se que o projeto da escola não vem conseguindo alcançar os objetivos propostos por: desconhecimento do mesmo, pelos professores; formação deficiente dos professores, não entendimento da EA como processo de ensino-aprendizagem, falta de recursos didáticos, planejamento inadequado das atividades. A partir dessa constatação, procurou-se debater a impossibilidade de tratar do tema fora do trabalho interdisciplinar, bem como, e principalmente, a importância de um estudo mais aprofundado de EA, vinculando teoria e prática, tanto na formação docente, como em projetos escolares, a fim de fugir do tradicional vínculo “EA e ecologia, lixo e horta”.Facultad de Humanidades y Ciencias de la Educació

Seasonal variation in the survival of discarded Nephrops norvegicus in a NW Mediterranean bottom-trawl fishery

8 pages, 6 figures, 7 tablesThe landing obligation in the revised European Union Common Fisheries Policy allows for exemptions to obligatory landing of the entire catch for species for which “high survival” of discards can be demonstrated. Nephrops norvegicus is an important target species in many fisheries across Europe in the Mediterranean Sea, NE Atlantic Ocean and North Sea. Historically, Mediterranean fisheries have had a high discard rate of small-sized Nephrops, and it is suspected that this unwanted component of the catch may have a high survival potential that is comparable to those of other EU fisheries, where survival rates of up to 0.56 have been demonstrated. However, to date, no investigations have confirmed a high discard survival rate for Nephrops in the Mediterranean Sea. Furthermore, the environmental, technical and biological characteristics that could affect Nephrops survival have been shown to be substantially different from those in the survival assessments conducted in the NE Atlantic and the North Sea. To address this knowledge gap, this study was conducted to determine the survival of Nephrops discarded from trawls in the Mediterranean Sea. The survival and vitality status of the discarded Nephrops removed from trawl catches were monitored onboard and for 14 days in the laboratory. The results showed seasonality in survival, with the highest survival rate in winter (0.74; CI: 0.7−0.78), lower survival in spring (0.36; CI: 0.31−0.41) and the lowest survival in summer (0.06; CI: 0.04−0.09). Survival was monitored to the asymptote in all cases, and season and vitality status were shown to have statistically significant relationships with survivalThis work was funded by the research project MINOUW (H2020-SFS-2014-2) of the European Commission (contract n° 634495)With the funding support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S), of the Spanish Research Agency (AEI)Peer reviewe

Data from: Spatial distribution of fishes in a Northwest Atlantic ecosystem in relation to risk of predation by a marine mammal

1. Numerous studies have shown that, at spatial scales of metres to several kilometres, animals balance the trade-off between foraging success and predation mortality by increasing their use of safer but less profitable habitats as predation risk increases. However, it is less clear whether prey respond similarly at the larger spatiotemporal scales of many ecosystems. 2. We determine whether this behaviour is evident in a large marine ecosystem, the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL, 75 000 km2) over a 42-year period. This ecosystem is characterized by a recent increase in the abundance of a large marine predator, the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus Fabricius), by more than an order of magnitude. 3. We compared changes in spatial distribution over the 1971–2012 period between important prey of grey seals (Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua L.; white hake, Urophycis tenuis Mitchill; and thorny skate, Amblyraja radiata Donovan) and non-prey fishes. Distribution was modelled using generalized additive models incorporating spatially variable effects of predation risk, density dependence and water temperature. 4. Distributions of cod, hake and skate were strongly related to risk of predation by seals, with distribution shifting into lower risk areas as predation risk increased. Non-prey species did not show similar changes in habitat use. Spatial variation in fish condition suggests that these low-risk areas are also less profitable for cod and skate in terms of food availability. The effects of density dependence and water temperature were also important in models, but did not account for the changes in habitat use as the risk of predation increased. 5. These results indicate that these fish are able to assess and respond to spatial variation in predation risk at very large spatial scales. They also suggest that non-consumptive ‘risk’ effects may be an important component of the declines in productivity of seal prey in this ecosystem, and of the indirect effects at lower trophic levels

Improved estimation of discard mortality rates with in situ experiments involving electronic and traditional tagging

Reliable estimates of release or discard mortality (DM) rates for recreational and commercial fisheries are necessary for robust assessment of the effects of fishing on populations and for establishing effective regulatory measures concerning the release of fish. In situ experiments involving the tagging of released fish are most likely to produce accurate estimates given that experimental subjects are captured and released under representative fishery conditions. Data from electronic tags can be used to infer movement or behavioral patterns of released fish, from which mortality times can be derived to then estimate natural mortality and DM rates. However, resulting DM rate estimates are often of low precision (high variance) due to small sample sizes associated with the elevated cost of electronic tags. Alternatively, returns of traditional tags from small scale experiments constitute a relatively inexpensive means of estimating the relative DM rates of two or more groups (e.g., vitality or injury classes, capture methods) of released fish. Combining the two approaches when there are two or more groups of discarded individuals can be beneficial. First, results from the two methods can be used to assess whether experimental effects such as tag-related mortality could bias estimates of DM rates. Second, we propose a modelling approach that integrates data from these two types of tagging methods to produce absolute DM rate estimates that can be more precise than those obtained from electronic tagging alone. We show using simulations under which conditions precision is improved and how different allocations of effort to electronic and traditional tagging can be used to plan DM experiments with respect to the precision of estimates and cost. An example based on a recent study is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed approach