Software fault-freeness and reliability predictions

Many software development practices aim at ensuring that software is correct, or fault-free. In safety critical applications, requirements are in terms of probabilities of certain behaviours, e.g. as associated to the Safety Integrity Levels of IEC 61508. The two forms of reasoning - about evidence of correctness and about probabilities of certain failures -are rarely brought together explicitly. The desirability of using claims of correctness has been argued by many authors, but not been taken up in practice. We address how to combine evidence concerning probability of failure together with evidence pertaining to likelihood of fault-freeness, in a Bayesian framework. We present novel results to make this approach practical, by guaranteeing reliability predictions that are conservative (err on the side of pessimism), despite the difficulty of stating prior probability distributions for reliability parameters. This approach seems suitable for practical application to assessment of certain classes of safety critical systems

Taking hospital pathogen surveillance to the next level

High-throughput bacterial genomic sequencing and subsequent analyses can produce large volumes of high-quality data rapidly. Advances in sequencing technology, with commensurate developments in bioinformatics, have increased the speed and efficiency with which it is possible to apply genomics to outbreak analysis and broader public health surveillance. This approach has been focused on targeted pathogenic taxa, such as Mycobacteria, and diseases corresponding to different modes of transmission, including food-and-water-borne diseases (FWDs) and sexually transmitted infections (STIs). In addition, major healthcare-associated pathogens such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, vancomycin-resistant enterococci and carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae are the focus of research projects and initiatives to understand transmission dynamics and temporal trends on both local and global scales. Here, we discuss current and future public health priorities relating to genome-based surveillance of major healthcare-associated pathogens. We highlight the specific challenges for the surveillance of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs), and how recent technical advances might be deployed most effectively to mitigate the increasing public health burden they cause

Morbidity from in-hospital complications is greater than treatment failure in patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia

Background: Various studies have identified numerous factors associated with poor clinical outcomes in patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB). A new study was created to provide deeper insight into in-hospital complications and risk factors for treatment failure. Methods: Adult patients hospitalised with Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB) were recruited prospectively into a multi-centre cohort. The primary outcome was treatment failure at 30 days (composite of all-cause mortality, persistent bacteraemia, or recurrent bacteraemia), and secondary measures included in-hospital complications and mortality at 6- and 12-months. Data were available for 222 patients recruited from February 2011 to December 2012. Results: Treatment failure at 30-days was recorded in 14.4% of patients (30-day mortality 9.5%). Multivariable analysis predictors of treatment failure included age > 70 years, Pitt bacteraemia score ≥ 2, CRP at onset of SAB > 250 mg/L, and persistent fevers after SAB onset; serum albumin at onset of SAB, receipt of appropriate empiric treatment, recent healthcare attendance, and performing echocardiography were protective. 6-month and 12-month mortality were 19.1% and 24.2% respectively. 45% experienced at least one in-hospital complication, including nephrotoxicity in 19.5%. Conclusions: This study demonstrates significant improvements in 30-day outcomes in SAB in Australia. However, we have identified important areas to improve outcomes from SAB, particularly reducing renal dysfunction and in-hospital treatment-related complications

Prediction Model to Identify Patients at Risk of 30-Day Treatment Failure in Patients With Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia

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Transformational capacity and the influence of place and identity

Climate change is altering the productivity of natural resources with far-reaching implications for those who depend on them. Resource-dependent industries and communities need the capacity to adapt to a range of climate risks if they are to remain viable. In some instances, the scale and nature of the likely impacts means that transformations of function or structure will be required. Transformations represent a switch to a distinct new system where a different suite of factors become important in the design and implementation of response strategies. There is a critical gap in knowledge on understanding transformational capacity and its influences. On the basis of current knowledge on adaptive capacity we propose four foundations for measuring transformational capacity: (1)how risks and uncertainty are managed, (2)the extent of skills in planning, learning and reorganizing, (3)the level of financial and psychological flexibility to undertake change and (4)the willingness to undertake change. We test the influence of place attachment and occupational identity on transformational capacity using the Australian peanut industry, which is presently assessing significant structural change in response to predicted climatic changes. Survey data from 88% of peanut farmers in Queensland show a strong negative correlation between transformational capacity and both place attachment and occupational attachment, suggesting that whilst these factors may be important positive influences on the capacity to adapt to incremental change, they act as barriers to transformational change

Landholder Typologies Used in the Development of Natural Resource Management Programs in Australia - A Review

This article reviews the literature on the identification of landholder typologies that can be used to assist the design and delivery of natural resource management (NRM) programs. Australian researchers have developed typologies of landholders based on a variety of criteria. The rationale for developing landholder typologies is first discussed before reviewing the various approaches that have been used by Australian researchers and comparing their findings. The methods employed have differed according to the theories used to guide the research and the 'clients' or 'sponsors' of the research. The landholder types they describe, however, have a number of similarities. These similarities suggest that the studies have identified the same fundamental divisions in the rural community, and that it may be possible to integrate landholder typologies for a variety of NRM and non-NRM applications. It is concluded that further research could usefully investigate whether concepts of social class or sub-cultures may be appropriate to define and describe the variations in landholder types

The SHARP study: a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the short-term outcomes of housing and neighbourhood renewal

<p><b>Background:</b> The SHARP study was set up to evaluate the short (1 year) and longer-term (2 year) effects on health and wellbeing of providing new social housing to tenants. This paper presents the study background, the design and methods, and the findings at one year.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> Data were collected from social tenants who were rehoused into a new, general-purpose socially-rented home developed and let by a Scottish Registered Social Landlord (the "Intervention" group). These data were collected at three points in time: before moving (Wave 1), one year after moving (Wave 2) and two years after moving (Wave 3). Data were collected from a Comparison group using the same methods at Baseline (Wave 1) and after two years of follow-up (Wave 3). Qualitative data were also collected by means of individual interviews. This paper presents the quantitative and qualitative findings at 1 year (after Wave 2).</p> <p><b>Results:</b> 339 Intervention group interviews and 392 Comparison group interviews were completed. One year after moving to a new home there was a significant reduction in the proportion of Intervention group respondents reporting problems with the home, such as damp and noise. There was also a significant increase in neighbourhood satisfaction compared with Baseline (χ2 = 35.51, p < 0.0001). Many aspects of the neighbourhood improved significantly, including antisocial behaviour. In terms of environmental aspects and services the greatest improvements were in the general appearance of the area, the reputation of the area, litter and rubbish, and speeding traffic. However, lack of facilities for children/young people and lack of safe children's play areas remained a concern for tenants.</p> <p><b>Conclusion:</b> This study found that self-reported health changed little in the first year after moving. Nonetheless, the quantitative and qualitative data point to improvements in the quality of housing and of the local environment, as well as in tenant satisfaction and other related outcomes. Further analyses will explore whether these effects are sustained, and whether differences in health outcomes emerge at 2 years compared with the Comparison group.</p&gt