Effective moisture diffusivity and mathematical modeling of drying compost pellet

Compost compression processes, such as pelleting, increase bulk density, improve storability, reduce transportation costs and make easier materials handling using existing equipment for handling and storage of grains. It is important to prevent quality deterioration of pellets in long time storage. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the moisture content of the pellets to less than  or less. In this research the drying kinetics of compost pellets were studied at air temperatures of 50, 60 and 70 , air velocities of 0.5, 1 and 1.5 , particle sizes of 1.18 and 2 mm and pellet diameters of 6 and 8 mm. The maximum effective moisture diffusivity (1.78× ) was obtained at air velocity of , air temperature of 70 , particle size of 1.18 mm and pellet diameter of 8 mm. The activation energy of compost pellets varied from to  under different conditions. The Page model was selected as the most suitable model, based on the statistical analysis

Optimization compressive strength biomass pellet from compost using Taguchi method

Compression is important to prevent a deterioration in quality pellets for long term storage and the moisture content of the pellets must be reduced to or less. In this research the quality of pellet of compost was studied at air temperatures of 50, 60 and 70, air velocities of 0.5, 1, and 1.5 m/s, particle sizes of 16(1.18mm) and 10(2mm) and pellet diameters of 6 and 8 mm. The Taguchi quality engineering method was used to investigate the effects of parameters on compressive strength of pellet. An orthogonal array, signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio analysis of variance (ANOVA) were employed to analyze the effect of these compressive strength parameters. Thus, the optimal performance for the compressive strength of pellet was obtained at first level of factor A, i.e. the particle size (16 (1.18 mm)), third level of air temperature (70 ).and second level of air velocity (1 m/s). Finalliy, confirmation tests verified that the Taguchi method was successful in compressive strength of pellet

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Leopard distribution in relation to human pressures and prey resources in North Khorasan province, Iran

The study aimed at identifying leopard-livestock conflict hotspots in the Khorasan Province for leopard conservation and management programs. Camera trappings, tracking (i.e. footprints and faeces), systematic interviews with local communities were used. The most suitable leopard habitats in the province are found in the southern portion of Maneh and Samalghan, Bojnourd, and the northern parts of Jajarm and Esfarayen Townships. Various species of leopard, wolf, wild boar and Indian crested porcupine were found. Leopards were found to be responsible for 10.6 % of the total conflict hotspots. Complaints from the local communities were mostly with regards to damages rendered by wild boar and porcupines, and livestock depredation by wolves. Local community awareness about compensation programs currently conducted by the Department of Environment Office and the introduction of livestock insurance regulations might effectively reduce and prevent leopard revenge killings in the region

Metabolic risk factors attributed burden in Iran at national and subnational levels, 1990 to 2019

Introduction: Metabolic risk factors (MRFs) predispose populations to a variety of chronic diseases with a huge burden globally. With the increasing burden of these risk factors in Iran, in this study, we aimed to report the estimated burden attributed to MRFs at national and subnational scales in Iran, from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Based on the comparative risk assessment method of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, data of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to four top MRFs in Iran including high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high body mass index (BMI), and high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) for the 1990–2019 period, were extracted. The socio-demographic index (SDI) was used to report the data based on the corresponding socio-economic stratifications. The results were reported in national and subnational 31 provinces of Iran to discover disparities regarding the attributable burden to MRFs. Furthermore, we reported the causes of diseases to which the attributable burden to MRFs was related. Results: Overall, the age-standardized high LDL, high SBP, high BMI, and high FPG-attributed death rate changed by -45.1, -35.6, +2.8, and +19.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. High SBP was the leading risk factor regarding attributed age-standardized death rates reaching 157.8 (95% uncertainty interval: 135.3–179.1) and DALY rates reaching 2973.4 (2652.2–3280.2) per 100,000 person-years, in 2019. All rates increased with aging, and men had higher rates except for the +70 years age group. At the subnational level, provinces in the middle SDI quintile had the highest death and DALY rates regarding all four MRFs. Total deaths, DALYs, YLLs and YLDs number by the causes of diseases linked to MRFs increased over the study period. Cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and kidney diseases were the main causes of burden of disease attributable to MRFs. Conclusion: Herein, we found divergent patterns regarding the burden of MRFs as well as disparities in different regions, sex, and age groups for each risk factor and related causes. This could provide policymakers with a clearer vision toward more appropriate decision-making and resource allocation to prevent the burden of MRFs in Iran

The burden of metabolic risk factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990–2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease StudyResearch in context

Summary: Background: The objective of this study is to investigate the trends of exposure and burden attributable to the four main metabolic risk factors, including high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high body-mass index (BMI), and high low-density lipoproteins cholesterol (LDL) in North Africa and the Middle East from 1990 to 2019. Methods: The data were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Summary exposure value (SEV) was used for risk factor exposure. Burden attributable to each risk factor was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Findings: While age-standardized death rate (ASDR) attributable to high-LDL and high-SBP decreased by 26.5% (18.6–35.2) and 23.4% (15.9–31.5) over 1990–2019, respectively, high-BMI with 5.1% (−9.0–25.9) and high-FPG with 21.4% (7.0–37.4) change, grew in ASDR. Moreover, age-standardized DALY rate attributed to high-LDL and high-SBP declined by 30.2% (20.9–39.0) and 25.2% (16.8–33.9), respectively. The attributable age-standardized DALY rate of high-BMI with 8.3% (−6.5–28.8) and high-FPG with 27.0% (14.3–40.8) increase, had a growing trend. Age-standardized SEVs of high-FPG, high-BMI, high-SBP, and high-LDL increased by 92.4% (82.8–103.3), 76.0% (58.9–99.3), 10.4% (3.8–18.0), and 5.5% (4.3–7.1), respectively. Interpretation: The burden attributed to high-SBP and high-LDL decreased during the 1990–2019 period in the region, while the attributable burden of high-FPG and high-BMI increased. Alarmingly, exposure to all four risk factors increased in the past three decades. There has been significant heterogeneity among the countries in the region regarding the trends of exposure and attributable burden. Urgent action is required at the individual, community, and national levels in terms of introducing effective strategies for prevention and treatment that account for local and socioeconomic factors. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation