Economics of renewable energy expansion and security of supply: A dynamic simulation of the German electricity market

We explore the impact of renewable energy under free market conditions on the security of energy supply using data for the German electricity market. We design a fundamental electricity market model, where renewable energy capacity is not driven by expansion goals, but is dynamically modeled as an economically-driven investment option. Furthermore, we analyze the economics of five policy scenarios designed to secure both electricity supply and renewable energy expansion. Our analysis demonstrates that renewable energy expansion leads to conventional power plant shut-downs (due to economic losses) and, as a result, to energy shortages. We find that the application of a fixed feed-in tariff mechanism for renewable energy (i.e. a fixed payment for the provided energy) is an appropriate instrument to simultaneously achieve renewable energy expansion and uninterrupted energy supply. However, when internalizing the external costs of electricity generation, the scenario of a free market for renewable energy together with subsidies for conventional power plants becomes the most cost efficient option

Non-linear Autoregressive Neural Networks to Forecast Short-Term Solar Radiation for Photovoltaic Energy Predictions

Nowadays, green energy is considered as a viable solution to hinder CO2 emissions and greenhouse effects. Indeed, it is expected that Renewable Energy Sources (RES) will cover 40% of the total energy request by 2040. This will move forward decentralized and cooperative power distribution systems also called smart grids. Among RES, solar energy will play a crucial role. However, reliable models and tools are needed to forecast and estimate with a good accuracy the renewable energy production in short-term time periods. These tools will unlock new services for smart grid management. In this paper, we propose an innovative methodology for implementing two different non-linear autoregressive neural networks to forecast Global Horizontal Solar Irradiance (GHI) in short-term time periods (i.e. from future 15 to 120min). Both neural networks have been implemented, trained and validated exploiting a dataset consisting of four years of solar radiation values collected by a real weather station. We also present the experimental results discussing and comparing the accuracy of both neural networks. Then, the resulting GHI forecast is given as input to a Photovoltaic simulator to predict energy production in short-term time periods. Finally, we present the results of this Photovoltaic energy estimation discussing also their accuracy

Energy, economic and environmental analyses of a solar energy based power generation under Malaysian conditions / Md. Hosenuzzaman Abdullah

Energy is the driving force for development, economic growth, automation, and modernization. Energy usage and demand are rising globally and researchers have taken this seriously to fulfill future energy demands. Solar energy is the inexhaustible and emission free energy source where the Photovoltaic (PV) is one of the most potential energy system. This research emphasizes the use of large scale PV installation as a clean energy source to support the energy demand in Malaysia. Discussion also include the 30 MW solar PV power plants and the factors that affecting power generation (cell/module types, efficiency, solar tracking system, shading, dust, life time, solar insolation and cell operating temperature), its installation cost, inverter replacement cost and land price. From the analysis, it is found that when the crystalline silicon module price is RM1.80/W (US$0.50/W), 100$0.50/W), 50% self-financing and 50% bank loan with 3% interest and loan tenure 15 years, the selling price of the produce electricity is RM0.40/kWh, RM0.45/kWh, RM0.50/kWh, and 0.55/kWh, then the NPV is RM18.06 million, RM16.9 million, RM50.46 million, and RM84.72 million. The IRR% is 1.6%, 4.2%, 6.6%, 8.8%, and the payback periods are 19.7 years, 16.9 years, 12.3 years, and 10.5 respectively. The grid parity is also analyzed and it is found iv that the grid parity occur within the year of 2021 to 2022 for crystalline silicon, when module price is RM1.80/W (US$0.50/W). To overcome the negative impacts of fossil fuels on the environment, many countries have been forced to change the environmental friendly alternatives energy sources. Solar energy is one of the best renewable energy sources and has the least negative impact on the environment

Photovoltaic power generation and its economic and environmental future in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is facing an energy crisis that is likely to become worse in the future because of insufficient power generation. Approximately 50% of the total population lives without grid-connected electricity. Moreover, the people connected to the grid are unable to access an even and continuous power supply on a daily basis. This research investigated the potential of renewable energy technologies, specifically photovoltaic (PV) power generation, and its economic and environmental impacts in Bangladesh. The concerns about the costs of PV technologies for Bangladesh were addressed by scenario modeling analysis and calculating the net present cost, cost of energy (COE), and bill savings for a 21-yr period. Results showed that 1 and 2 kWp systems could reduce the total energy cost by US$4495.856 and US$2191.69, respectively, and decrease the COE by 0.198 and 0.096 per kW h in a 21-yr period. Over a 21-yr period, 1 kWp PV systems could lower future emissions by a total of 10 162 kg of CO2, 65 kg of SO2, 30 kg of NOx, and 6 kg of CO, whereas 2 kWp PV systems could reduce future emissions by a total of 20 302 kg of CO2, 129 kg of SO2, 60 kg of NOx, and 12 kg of CO

Global Renewable Energy-Based Electricity Generation and Smart Grid System for Energy Security

Energy is an indispensable factor for the economic growth and development of a country. Energy consumption is rapidly increasing worldwide. To fulfill this energy demand, alternative energy sources and efficient utilization are being explored. Various sources of renewable energy and their efficient utilization are comprehensively reviewed and presented in this paper. Also the trend in research and development for the technological advancement of energy utilization and smart grid system for future energy security is presented. Results show that renewable energy resources are becoming more prevalent as more electricity generation becomes necessary and could provide half of the total energy demands by 2050. To satisfy the future energy demand, the smart grid system can be used as an efficient system for energy security. The smart grid also delivers significant environmental benefits by conservation and renewable generation integration

Prospects, progress, policies, and effects of rural electrification in Bangladesh

Energy is instrumental for the development and economic growth of a country. Although Bangladesh is known as a developing country in South Asia, it has been recognised as a model country by the United Nations for its remarkable achievements in attaining the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. Successive governments of the country have taken several developmental initiatives that aim to improve the standard of living and to provide basic rights to the citizens. An increase in the demand for energy, particularly electricity, is a normal consequence of many of these initiatives. Thus, the provision of sufficient electricity has become a genuine challenge for the government. Studies have indicated that even if the national demand for electricity remains static, another 35 years is required by the government to provide electricity to all, given the current production pace. Providing electricity to all may nearly be an impossible task because of the ever-increasing demand for electricity. The situation in rural areas, where many people are deprived of electricity supply, is even severe. Fortunately, this coastal and agro-based country is geo- graphically located in an area that has a potential in exploiting different renewable forms of energy. Therefore, renewable energy sources can be considered potential solutions to satisfy the future energy demand of the country and to provide electricity, particularly in rural areas. Bangladesh is one of the countries that is seriously vulnerable to the effects of climate change; hence, the use of renewable energy can contribute to mitigate the effects of both climate change and environmental degradation in the country