A Reinforcement Learning Framework for Time-Dependent Causal Effects Evaluation in A/B Testing

A/B testing, or online experiment is a standard business strategy to compare a new product with an old one in pharmaceutical, technological, and traditional industries. Major challenges arise in online experiments where there is only one unit that receives a sequence of treatments over time. In those experiments, the treatment at a given time impacts current outcome as well as future outcomes. The aim of this paper is to introduce a reinforcement learning framework for carrying A/B testing, while characterizing the long-term treatment effects. Our proposed testing procedure allows for sequential monitoring and online updating, so it is generally applicable to a variety of treatment designs in different industries. In addition, we systematically investigate the theoretical properties (e.g., asymptotic distribution and power) of our testing procedure. Finally, we apply our framework to both synthetic datasets and a real-world data example obtained from a ride-sharing company to illustrate its usefulness

Dynamic causal effects evaluation in A/B testing with a reinforcement learning framework

A/B testing, or online experiment is a standard business strategy to compare a new product with an old one in pharmaceutical, technological, and traditional industries. Major challenges arise in online experiments of two-sided marketplace platforms (e.g., Uber) where there is only one unit that receives a sequence of treatments over time. In those experiments, the treatment at a given time impacts current outcome as well as future outcomes. The aim of this article is to introduce a reinforcement learning framework for carrying A/B testing in these experiments, while characterizing the long-term treatment effects. Our proposed testing procedure allows for sequential monitoring and online updating. It is generally applicable to a variety of treatment designs in different industries. In addition, we systematically investigate the theoretical properties (e.g., size and power) of our testing procedure. Finally, we apply our framework to both simulated data and a real-world data example obtained from a technological company to illustrate its advantage over the current practice. A Python implementation of our test is available at https://github.com/callmespring/CausalRL. Supplementary materials for this article are available online

How to Fine-tune the Model: Unified Model Shift and Model Bias Policy Optimization

Designing and deriving effective model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) algorithms with a performance improvement guarantee is challenging, mainly attributed to the high coupling between model learning and policy optimization. Many prior methods that rely on return discrepancy to guide model learning ignore the impacts of model shift, which can lead to performance deterioration due to excessive model updates. Other methods use performance difference bound to explicitly consider model shift. However, these methods rely on a fixed threshold to constrain model shift, resulting in a heavy dependence on the threshold and a lack of adaptability during the training process. In this paper, we theoretically derive an optimization objective that can unify model shift and model bias and then formulate a fine-tuning process. This process adaptively adjusts the model updates to get a performance improvement guarantee while avoiding model overfitting. Based on these, we develop a straightforward algorithm USB-PO (Unified model Shift and model Bias Policy Optimization). Empirical results show that USB-PO achieves state-of-the-art performance on several challenging benchmark tasks

Higher FOXP3-TSDR demethylation rates in adjacent normal tissues in patients with colon cancer were associated with worse survival

BACKGROUND: The influence of natural regulatory T cells (nTregs) on the patients with colon cancer is unclear. Demethylated status of the Treg-specific demethylated region (TSDR) of the FOXP3 gene was reported to be a potential biomarker for the identification of nTregs. METHODS: The demethylation rate of the TSDR (TSDR-DMR) was calculated by using methylation-specific quantitative polymerase chain reaction (MS-qPCR) assay. The expression of TSDR-DMR and FOXP3 mRNA was investigated in various colorectal cancer cell lines. A total of 130 colon carcinoma samples were utilized to study the DMR at tumor sites (DMR(T)) and adjacent normal tissue (DMR(N)). The correlations between DMRs and clinicopathological variables of patients with colon cancer were studied. RESULTS: The TSDR-DMRs varied dramatically among nTregs (97.920 ± 0.466%) and iTregs (3.917 ± 0.750%). Significantly, DMR(T) (3.296 ± 0.213%) was higher than DMR(N) (1.605 ± 0.146%) (n = 130, p = 0.000). Higher DMR(N) levels were found in female patients (p = 0.001) and those with distant metastases (p = 0.017), and were also associated with worse recurrence-free survival in non-stage IV patients (low vs. high, p = 0.022). However, further Cox multivariate analysis revealed that the FOXP3-TSDR status does not have prognostic value. CONCLUSION: MS-qPCR assays of FOXP3-TSDR can efficiently distinguish nTregs from non-nTregs. Abnormal recruitment of nTregs occurs in the local tumor microenvironment. Infiltration of tissue-resident nTregs may have a negative role in anti-tumor effects in patients with colon cancer; however, this role is limited and complicated

Prediction of overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer : development of a prognostic model through a crowdsourced challenge with open clinical trial data

Background Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for prediction of survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer but also engage a community of international data scientists to study this disease. Methods Data from the comparator arms of four phase 3 clinical trials in first-line metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were obtained from Project Data Sphere, comprising 476 patients treated with docetaxel and prednisone from the ASCENT2 trial, 526 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone, and placebo in the MAINSAIL trial, 598 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone or prednisolone, and placebo in the VENICE trial, and 470 patients treated with docetaxel and placebo in the ENTHUSE 33 trial. Datasets consisting of more than 150 clinical variables were curated centrally, including demographics, laboratory values, medical history, lesion sites, and previous treatments. Data from ASCENT2, MAINSAIL, and VENICE were released publicly to be used as training data to predict the outcome of interest-namely, overall survival. Clinical data were also released for ENTHUSE 33, but data for outcome variables (overall survival and event status) were hidden from the challenge participants so that ENTHUSE 33 could be used for independent validation. Methods were evaluated using the integrated time-dependent area under the curve (iAUC). The reference model, based on eight clinical variables and a penalised Cox proportional-hazards model, was used to compare method performance. Further validation was done using data from a fifth trial-ENTHUSE M1-in which 266 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with placebo alone. Findings 50 independent methods were developed to predict overall survival and were evaluated through the DREAM challenge. The top performer was based on an ensemble of penalised Cox regression models (ePCR), which uniquely identified predictive interaction effects with immune biomarkers and markers of hepatic and renal function. Overall, ePCR outperformed all other methods (iAUC 0.791; Bayes factor >5) and surpassed the reference model (iAUC 0.743; Bayes factor >20). Both the ePCR model and reference models stratified patients in the ENTHUSE 33 trial into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (ePCR: hazard ratio 3.32, 95% CI 2.39-4.62, p Interpretation Novel prognostic factors were delineated, and the assessment of 50 methods developed by independent international teams establishes a benchmark for development of methods in the future. The results of this effort show that data-sharing, when combined with a crowdsourced challenge, is a robust and powerful framework to develop new prognostic models in advanced prostate cancer.Peer reviewe

Retrospective evaluation of whole exome and genome mutation calls in 746 cancer samples

Funder: NCI U24CA211006Abstract: The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) curated consensus somatic mutation calls using whole exome sequencing (WES) and whole genome sequencing (WGS), respectively. Here, as part of the ICGC/TCGA Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium, which aggregated whole genome sequencing data from 2,658 cancers across 38 tumour types, we compare WES and WGS side-by-side from 746 TCGA samples, finding that ~80% of mutations overlap in covered exonic regions. We estimate that low variant allele fraction (VAF < 15%) and clonal heterogeneity contribute up to 68% of private WGS mutations and 71% of private WES mutations. We observe that ~30% of private WGS mutations trace to mutations identified by a single variant caller in WES consensus efforts. WGS captures both ~50% more variation in exonic regions and un-observed mutations in loci with variable GC-content. Together, our analysis highlights technological divergences between two reproducible somatic variant detection efforts

Study of the structure/function relationship in canine and human IgE as the basis for the development of rational therapeutic intervention strategies in allergic disease

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