Kernel-density estimation and approximate Bayesian computation for flexible epidemiological model fitting in Python

Fitting complex models to epidemiological data is a challenging problem: methodologies can be inaccessible to all but specialists, there may be challenges in adequately describing uncertainty in model fitting, the complex models may take a long time to run, and it can be difficult to fully capture the heterogeneity in the data. We develop an adaptive approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit a variety of epidemiologically relevant data with minimal hyper-parameter tuning by using an adaptive tolerance scheme. We implement a novel kernel density estimation scheme to capture both dispersed and multi-dimensional data, and directly compare this technique to standard Bayesian approaches. We then apply the procedure to a complex individual-based simulation of lymphatic filariasis, a human parasitic disease. The procedure and examples are released alongside this article as an open access library, with examples to aid researchers to rapidly fit models to data. This demonstrates that an adaptive ABC scheme with a general summary and distance metric is capable of performing model fitting for a variety of epidemiological data. It also does not require significant theoretical background to use and can be made accessible to the diverse epidemiological research community

Understanding heterogeneities in mosquito-bite exposure and infection distributions for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis

It is well known that individuals in the same community can be exposed to a highly variable number of mosquito bites. This heterogeneity in bite exposure has consequences for the control of vector-borne diseases because a few people may be contributing significantly to transmission. However, very few studies measure sources of heterogeneity in a way which is relevant to decision-making. We investigate the relationship between two classic measures of heterogeneity, spatial and individual, within the context of lymphatic filariasis, a parasitic mosquito-borne disease. Using infection and mosquito-bite data for five villages in Papua New Guinea, we measure biting characteristics to model what impact bed-nets have had on control of the disease. We combine this analysis with geospatial modelling to understand the spatial relationship between disease indicators and nightly mosquito bites. We found a weak association between biting and infection heterogeneity within villages. The introduction of bed-nets increased biting heterogeneity, but the reduction in mean biting more than compensated for this, by reducing prevalence closer to elimination thresholds. Nightly biting was explained by a spatial heterogeneity model, while parasite load was better explained by an individual heterogeneity model. Spatial and individual heterogeneity are qualitatively different with profoundly different policy implications

Pervasive hybridization during evolutionary radiation of Rhododendron subgenus Hymenanthes in mountains of southwest China

Radiations are especially important for generating species biodiversity in mountainous ecosystems. The contribution of hybridization to such radiations has rarely been examined. Here, we use extensive genomic data to test whether hybridization was involved in evolutionary radiation within Rhododendron subgenus Hymenanthes, whose members show strong geographic isolation in the mountains of southwest China. We sequenced genomes for 143 species of this subgenus and 93 species of four other subgenera, and found that Hymenanthes was monophyletic and radiated during the late Oligocene to middle Miocene. Widespread hybridization events were inferred within and between the identified clades and subclades. This suggests that hybridization occurred both early and late during diversification of subgenus Hymenanthes, although the extent to which hybridization, speciation through mixing-isolation-mixing or hybrid speciation, accelerated the diversification needs further exploration. Cycles of isolation and contact in such and other montane ecosystems may have together promoted species radiation through hybridization between diverging populations and species. Similar radiation processes may apply to other montane floras in this region and elsewhere

Correcting the Actual Reproduction Number: A Simple Method to Estimate R0 from Early Epidemic Growth Data

The basic reproduction number, R0, a summary measure of the transmission potential of an infectious disease, is estimated from early epidemic growth rate, but a likelihood-based method for the estimation has yet to be developed. The present study corrects the concept of the actual reproduction number, offering a simple framework for estimating R0 without assuming exponential growth of cases. The proposed method is applied to the HIV epidemic in European countries, yielding R0 values ranging from 3.60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R0 using a spreadsheet

Can plastid genome sequencing be used for species identification in the Lauraceae?

Using DNA barcoding for species identification remains challenging for many plant groups. New sequencing approaches such as complete plastid genome sequencing may provide some increased power and practical benefits for species identification beyond standard plant DNA barcodes. We undertook a case study comparing standard DNA barcoding to plastid genome sequencing for species discrimination in the ecologically and economically important family Lauraceae, using 191 plastid genomes for 131 species from 25 genera, representing the largest plastome data set for Lauraceae to date. We found that the plastome sequences were useful in correcting some identification errors and for finding new and cryptic species. However, plastome data overall were only able to discriminate c. 60% of the species in our sample, with this representing a modest improvement from 40 to 50% discrimination success with the standard plant DNA barcodes. Beyond species discrimination, the plastid genome sequences revealed complex relationships in the family, with 12/25 genera being non-monophyletic and with extensive incongruence relative to nuclear ribosomal DNA. These results highlight that although useful for improving phylogenetic resolution in the family and providing some species-level insights, plastome sequences only partially improve species discrimination, and this reinforces the need for large-scale nuclear data to improve discrimination among closely related species

Tuning of catalytic activity by thermoelectric materials for carbon dioxide hydrogenation

An innovative use of a thermoelectric material (BiCuSeO) as a support and promoter of catalysis for CO2 hydrogenation is reported here. It is proposed that the capability of thermoelectric materials to shift the Fermi level and work function of a catalyst lead to an exponential increase of catalytic activity for catalyst particles deposited on its surface. Experimental results show that the CO2 conversion and CO selectivity are increased significantly by a thermoelectric Seebeck voltage. This suggests that the thermoelectric effect can not only increase the reaction rate but also change chemical equilibrium, which leads to the change of thermodynamic equilibrium for the conversion of CO2 in its hydrogenation reactions. It is also shown that this thermoelectric promotion of catalysis enables BiCuSeO oxide itself to have a high catalytic activity for CO2 hydrogenation. The generic nature of the mechanism suggests the possibility that many catalytic chemical reactions can be tuned in situ to achieve much higher reaction rates, or at lower temperatures, or have better desired selectivity through changing the backside temperature of the thermoelectric support

Joining Inventory by Parataxonomists with DNA Barcoding of a Large Complex Tropical Conserved Wildland in Northwestern Costa Rica

BACKGROUND: The many components of conservation through biodiversity development of a large complex tropical wildland, Area de Conservacion Guanacaste (ACG), thrive on knowing what is its biodiversity and natural history. For 32 years a growing team of Costa Rican parataxonomists has conducted biodiversity inventory of ACG caterpillars, their food plants, and their parasitoids. In 2003, DNA barcoding was added to the inventory process. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We describe some of the salient consequences for the parataxonomists of barcoding becoming part of a field biodiversity inventory process that has centuries of tradition. From the barcoding results, the parataxonomists, as well as other downstream users, gain a more fine-scale and greater understanding of the specimens they find, rear, photograph, database and deliver. The parataxonomists also need to adjust to collecting more specimens of what appear to be the "same species"--cryptic species that cannot be distinguished by eye or even food plant alone--while having to work with the name changes and taxonomic uncertainty that comes with discovering that what looked like one species may be many. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These career parataxonomists, despite their lack of formal higher education, have proven very capable of absorbing and working around the additional complexity and requirements for accuracy and detail that are generated by adding barcoding to the field base of the ACG inventory. In the process, they have also gained a greater understanding of the fine details of phylogeny, relatedness, evolution, and species-packing in their own tropical complex ecosytems. There is no reason to view DNA barcoding as incompatible in any way with tropical biodiversity inventory as conducted by parataxonomists. Their year-round on-site inventory effort lends itself well to the sampling patterns and sample sizes needed to build a thorough barcode library. Furthermore, the biological understanding that comes with barcoding increases the scientific penetrance of biodiversity information, DNA understanding, evolution, and ecology into the communities in which the parataxonomists and their families are resident

A Potential Role for Drosophila Mucins in Development and Physiology

Vital vertebrate organs are protected from the external environment by a barrier that to a large extent consists of mucins. These proteins are characterized by poorly conserved repeated sequences that are rich in prolines and potentially glycosylated threonines and serines (PTS). We have now used the characteristics of the PTS repeat domain to identify Drosophila mucins in a simple bioinformatics approach. Searching the predicted protein database for proteins with at least 4 repeats and a high ST content, more than 30 mucin-like proteins were identified, ranging from 300–23000 amino acids in length. We find that Drosophila mucins are present at all stages of the fly life cycle, and that their transcripts localize to selective organs analogous to sites of vertebrate mucin expression. The results could allow for addressing basic questions about human mucin-related diseases in this model system. Additionally, many of the mucins are expressed in selective tissues during embryogenesis, thus revealing new potential functions for mucins as apical matrix components during organ morphogenesis

Dense infraspecific sampling reveals cryptic differentiation in the enigmatic hemiparasitic love vine Cassytha filiformis (Lauraceae)

Species delimitation remains a challenge worldwide, especially in highly diverse tropical and subtropical regions. Here, we use an integrative approach that combines morphology, phylogenomics, and species distribution modeling (SDM) to clarify the cryptic differentiation within the enigmatic hemiparasitic love vine Cassytha filiformis (Lauraceae) in China and adjacent regions. We generated complete plastid genomes and nuclear ribosomal sequences for diverse samples from across the species range and compared results with previously published plastid data, recovering two well-supported monophyletic clades. Further, the analysis revealed significant differences in two morphological characters and SDM, indicating distinct environmental factors influencing their distributions. Fossil-calibrated analyses to estimate the origins and diversification patterns for the cryptic species gave divergence age estimates corresponding to the Oligo-Miocene; a period of new ecological opportunities associated with the prevailing East Asian monsoon. Multivariate analyses support the conclusion that southern China and adjacent regions have a different, previously unknown, cryptic lineage of C. filiformis. Our study highlights the importance of using multivariate approach to characterize plant species, as well as the significant role that past climatic changes have played in driving speciation in parasitic plants in tropical and subtropical zones.</p