Measuring Ground Delay Program Effectiveness Using the Rate Control Index

The objective of Air Traffic Flow Management is to maintain safe and efficient use of airspace and airports by regulating the flow of traffic. In this paper, we introduce a single-valued metric for post-operatively rating the performance of achieved traffic flow against targeted traffic flow. We provide variations on the metric, one of which factors out stochastic conditions upon which a plan is formulated, and show how these improve on current traffic control analysis techniques. The core of the metric is intuitive and simple, yet leads to an interesting optimization problem that can be efficiently solved via dynamic programming. Numerical results of the metric are given as well as a sample of the type of analysis that should follow a low rating by the metric. Although this metric was originally developed to rate the performance of Ground Delay Programs, it is equally applicable to any setting in which the flow of discrete objects such as vehicles is controlled and later evaluated

The Rate Control Index for Traffic Flow

The objective of Air Traffic Flow Management is to maintain safe and efficient use of airspace and airports by regulating theflow of traffic. In this paper, we introduce a single-valued metric for post-operatively rating the performance ofachieved traffic flow against targeted traffic flow. We provide variations on the metric, one of which factors out stochastic conditions upon which a plan is formulated, and show how those improve on current traffic control analysis techniques.The core of the metric is intuitive and simple, yet leads to an interesting optimization problem that can be efficiently solved via dynamic programming. Numerical results of the metric are given as well as a sample of the type of analysis that should follow a low rating by the metric. Although this metric was originally developed to rate the performance of GroundDelay Programs, it is equally applicable to any setting in which the flow of discrete objects such as vehicles is controlled and later evaluated

A Comparison of Formulations for the Single-Airport Ground Holding Problem with Banking Constraints

Both the single-airport ground-holding problem (GH) and the multi-airport ground-holding problem can be extended by the addition of banking constraints to accommodate the hubbing operations of major airlines. These constraints enforce the desire of airlines to land certain groups of flights, called banks, within fixed time windows, thus preventing the propagation of delays throughout their entire operation. GH can be formulated as a transportation problem and readily solved. But in the presence of banking constraints, GH becomes a difficult integer programming problem. In this paper, we construct five different models of the single-airport ground holding problem with banking constraints (GHB). The models are evaluated both computationally and analytically. For two of the models, we show that the banking constraints induce facets of the convex hull of the set of integer solutions. In addition, we explore a linear transformation of variables and a branching technique

Controlling Drift of Herbicidal Sprays.

4 p

Prenatal Arsenic Exposure and DNA Methylation in Maternal and Umbilical Cord Blood Leukocytes

Background: Arsenic is an epigenetic toxicant and could influence fetal developmental programming. Objectives: We evaluated the association between arsenic exposure and DNA methylation in maternal and umbilical cord leukocytes. Methods: Drinking-water and urine samples were collected when women were at ≤ 28 weeks gestation; the samples were analyzed for arsenic using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. DNA methylation at CpG sites in p16 (n = 7) and p53 (n = 4), and in LINE-1 and Alu repetitive elements (3 CpG sites in each), was quantified using pyrosequencing in 113 pairs of maternal and umbilical blood samples. We used general linear models to evaluate the relationship between DNA methylation and tertiles of arsenic exposure. Results: Mean (± SD) drinking-water arsenic concentration was 14.8 ± 36.2 μg/L (range: < 1–230 μg/L). Methylation in LINE-1 increased by 1.36% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52, 2.21%] and 1.08% (95% CI: 0.07, 2.10%) in umbilical cord and maternal leukocytes, respectively, in association with the highest versus lowest tertile of total urinary arsenic per gram creatinine. Arsenic exposure was also associated with higher methylation of some of the tested CpG sites in the promoter region of p16 in umbilical cord and maternal leukocytes. No associations were observed for Alu or p53 methylation. Conclusions: Exposure to higher levels of arsenic was positively associated with DNA methylation in LINE-1 repeated elements, and to a lesser degree at CpG sites within the promoter region of the tumor suppressor gene :p16. Associations were observed in both maternal and fetal leukocytes. Future research is needed to confirm these results and determine if these small increases in methylation are associated with any health effects

Classical Stabilization of Homogeneous Extra Dimensions

If spacetime possesses extra dimensions of size and curvature radii much larger than the Planck or string scales, the dynamics of these extra dimensions should be governed by classical general relativity. We argue that in general relativity, it is highly nontrivial to obtain solutions where the extra dimensions are static and are dynamically stable to small perturbations. We also illustrate that intuition on equilibrium and stability built up from non-gravitational physics can be highly misleading. For all static, homogeneous solutions satisfying the null energy condition, we show that the Ricci curvature of space must be nonnegative in all directions. Much of our analysis focuses on a class of spacetime models where space consists of a product of homogeneous and isotropic geometries. A dimensional reduction of these models is performed, and their stability to perturbations that preserve the spatial symmetries is analyzed. We conclude that the only physically realistic examples of classically stabilized large extra dimensions are those in which the extra-dimensional manifold is positively curved.Comment: 25 pages; minor changes, improved reference

Bacterial Communities in Women with Bacterial Vaginosis: High Resolution Phylogenetic Analyses Reveal Relationships of Microbiota to Clinical Criteria

Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is a common condition that is associated with numerous adverse health outcomes and is characterized by poorly understood changes in the vaginal microbiota. We sought to describe the composition and diversity of the vaginal bacterial biota in women with BV using deep sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene coupled with species-level taxonomic identification. We investigated the associations between the presence of individual bacterial species and clinical diagnostic characteristics of BV.Broad-range 16S rRNA gene PCR and pyrosequencing were performed on vaginal swabs from 220 women with and without BV. BV was assessed by Amsel's clinical criteria and confirmed by Gram stain. Taxonomic classification was performed using phylogenetic placement tools that assigned 99% of query sequence reads to the species level. Women with BV had heterogeneous vaginal bacterial communities that were usually not dominated by a single taxon. In the absence of BV, vaginal bacterial communities were dominated by either Lactobacillus crispatus or Lactobacillus iners. Leptotrichia amnionii and Eggerthella sp. were the only two BV-associated bacteria (BVABs) significantly associated with each of the four Amsel's criteria. Co-occurrence analysis revealed the presence of several sub-groups of BVABs suggesting metabolic co-dependencies. Greater abundance of several BVABs was observed in Black women without BV.The human vaginal bacterial biota is heterogeneous and marked by greater species richness and diversity in women with BV; no species is universally present. Different bacterial species have different associations with the four clinical criteria, which may account for discrepancies often observed between Amsel and Nugent (Gram stain) diagnostic criteria. Several BVABs exhibited race-dependent prevalence when analyzed in separate groups by BV status which may contribute to increased incidence of BV in Black women. Tools developed in this project can be used to study microbial ecology in diverse settings at high resolution

DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events

A new nudging method for data assimilation, delay‐coordinate nudging, is presented. Delay‐coordinate nudging makes explicit use of present and past observations in the formulation of the forcing driving the model evolution at each time step. Numerical experiments with a low‐order chaotic system show that the new method systematically outperforms standard nudging in different model and observational scenarios, also when using an unoptimized formulation of the delay‐nudging coefficients. A connection between the optimal delay and the dominant Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics is found based on heuristic arguments and is confirmed by the numerical results, providing a guideline for the practical implementation of the algorithm. Delay‐coordinate nudging preserves the easiness of implementation, the intuitive functioning and the reduced computational cost of the standard nudging, making it a potential alternative especially in the field of seasonal‐to‐decadal predictions with large Earth system models that limit the use of more sophisticated data assimilation procedures

Managing for RADical ecosystem change: applying the Resist-Accept- Direct (RAD) framework

Ecosystem transformation involves the emergence of persistent ecological or social–ecological systems that diverge, dramatically and irreversibly, from prior ecosystem structure and function. Such transformations are occurring at increasing rates across the planet in response to changes in climate, land use, and other factors. Consequently, a dynamic view of ecosystem processes that accommodates rapid, irreversible change will be critical for effectively conserving fish, wildlife, and other natural resources, and maintaining ecosystem services. However, managing ecosystems toward states with novel structure and function is an inherently unpredictable and difficult task. Managers navigating ecosystem transformation can benefit from considering broader objectives, beyond a traditional focus on resisting ecosystem change, by also considering whether accepting inevitable change or directing it along some desirable pathway is more feasible (that is, practical and appropriate) under some circumstances (the RAD framework). By explicitly acknowledging transformation and implementing an iterative RAD approach, natural resource managers can be deliberate and strategic in addressing profound ecosystem change

Different paths to the modern state in Europe: the interaction between domestic political economy and interstate competition

Theoretical work on state formation and capacity has focused mostly on early modern Europe and on the experience of western European states during this period. While a number of European states monopolized domestic tax collection and achieved gains in state capacity during the early modern era, for others revenues stagnated or even declined, and these variations motivated alternative hypotheses for determinants of fiscal and state capacity. In this study we test the basic hypotheses in the existing literature making use of the large date set we have compiled for all of the leading states across the continent. We find strong empirical support for two prevailing threads in the literature, arguing respectively that interstate wars and changes in economic structure towards an urbanized economy had positive fiscal impact. Regarding the main point of contention in the theoretical literature, whether it was representative or authoritarian political regimes that facilitated the gains in fiscal capacity, we do not find conclusive evidence that one performed better than the other. Instead, the empirical evidence we have gathered lends supports to the hypothesis that when under pressure of war, the fiscal performance of representative regimes was better in the more urbanized-commercial economies and the fiscal performance of authoritarian regimes was better in rural-agrarian economie