Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy

Impact of liver tumour burden, alkaline phosphatase elevation, and target lesion size on treatment outcomes with 177Lu-Dotatate: an analysis of the NETTER-1 study

Purpose: To assess the impact of baseline liver tumour burden, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) elevation, and target lesion size on treatment outcomes with 177Lu-Dotatate. Methods: In the phase 3 NETTER-1 trial, patients with advanced, progressive midgut neuroendocrine tumours (NET) were randomised to 177Lu-Dotatate (every 8 weeks, four cycles) plus octreotide long-acting release (LAR) or to octreotide LAR 60 mg. Primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Analyses of PFS by baseline factors, including liver tumour burden, ALP elevation, and target lesion size, were performed using Kaplan-Meier estimates; hazard ratios (HRs) with corresponding 95% CIs were estimated using Cox regression. Results: Significantly prolonged median PFS occurred with 177Lu-Dotatate versus octreotide LAR 60 mg in patients with low ( 50%) liver tumour burden (HR 0.187, 0.216, 0.145), and normal or elevated ALP (HR 0.153, 0.177), and in the presence or absence of a large target lesion (diameter > 30 mm; HR, 0.213, 0.063). Within the 177Lu-Dotatate arm, no significant difference in PFS was observed amongst patients with low/moderate/high liver tumour burden (P = 0.7225) or with normal/elevated baseline ALP (P = 0.3532), but absence of a large target lesion was associated with improved PFS (P = 0.0222). Grade 3 and 4 liver function abnormalities were rare and did not appear to be associated with high baseline liver tumour burden. Conclusions: 177Lu-Dotatate demonstrated significant prolongation in PFS versus high-dose octreotide LAR in patients with advanced, progressive midgut NET, regardless of baseline liver tumour burden, elevated ALP, or the presence of a large target lesion. Clinicaltrials.gov : NCT01578239, EudraCT: 2011-005049-11

Impact of liver tumour burden, alkaline phosphatase elevation, and target lesion size on treatment outcomes with 177Lu-Dotatate: an analysis of the NETTER-1 study

Purpose: To assess the impact of baseline liver tumour burden, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) elevation, and target lesion size on treatment outcomes with 177Lu-Dotatate. Methods: In the phase 3 NETTER-1 trial, patients with advanced, progressive midgut neuroendocrine tumours (NET) were randomised to 177Lu-Dotatate (every 8 weeks, four cycles) plus octreotide long-acting release (LAR) or to octreotide LAR 60 mg. Primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Analyses of PFS by baseline factors, including liver tumour burden, ALP elevation, and target lesion size, were performed using Kaplan-Meier estimates; hazard ratios (HRs) with corresponding 95% CIs were estimated using Cox regression. Results: Significantly prolonged median PFS occurred with 177Lu-Dotatate versus octreotide LAR 60 mg in patients with low ( 50%) liver tumour burden (HR 0.187, 0.216, 0.145), and normal or elevated ALP (HR 0.153, 0.177), and in the presence or absence of a large target lesion (diameter > 30 mm; HR, 0.213, 0.063). Within the 177Lu-Dotatate arm, no significant difference in PFS was observed amongst patients with low/moderate/high liver tumour burden (P = 0.7225) or with normal/elevated baseline ALP (P = 0.3532), but absence of a large target lesion was associated with improved PFS (P = 0.0222). Grade 3 and 4 liver function abnormalities were rare and did not appear to be associated with high baseline liver tumour burden. Conclusions: 177Lu-Dotatate demonstrated significant prolongation in PFS versus high-dose octreotide LAR in patients with advanced, progressive midgut NET, regardless of baseline liver tumour burden, elevated ALP, or the presence of a large target lesion. Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01578239, EudraCT: 2011-005049-11

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy

Effects of a high-dose 24-h infusion of tranexamic acid on death and thromboembolic events in patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (HALT-IT): an international randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background: Tranexamic acid reduces surgical bleeding and reduces death due to bleeding in patients with trauma. Meta-analyses of small trials show that tranexamic acid might decrease deaths from gastrointestinal bleeding. We aimed to assess the effects of tranexamic acid in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Methods: We did an international, multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 164 hospitals in 15 countries. Patients were enrolled if the responsible clinician was uncertain whether to use tranexamic acid, were aged above the minimum age considered an adult in their country (either aged 16 years and older or aged 18 years and older), and had significant (defined as at risk of bleeding to death) upper or lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Patients were randomly assigned by selection of a numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Patients received either a loading dose of 1 g tranexamic acid, which was added to 100 mL infusion bag of 0·9% sodium chloride and infused by slow intravenous injection over 10 min, followed by a maintenance dose of 3 g tranexamic acid added to 1 L of any isotonic intravenous solution and infused at 125 mg/h for 24 h, or placebo (sodium chloride 0·9%). Patients, caregivers, and those assessing outcomes were masked to allocation. The primary outcome was death due to bleeding within 5 days of randomisation; analysis excluded patients who received neither dose of the allocated treatment and those for whom outcome data on death were unavailable. This trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN11225767, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01658124. Findings: Between July 4, 2013, and June 21, 2019, we randomly allocated 12 009 patients to receive tranexamic acid (5994, 49·9%) or matching placebo (6015, 50·1%), of whom 11 952 (99·5%) received the first dose of the allocated treatment. Death due to bleeding within 5 days of randomisation occurred in 222 (4%) of 5956 patients in the tranexamic acid group and in 226 (4%) of 5981 patients in the placebo group (risk ratio [RR] 0·99, 95% CI 0·82–1·18). Arterial thromboembolic events (myocardial infarction or stroke) were similar in the tranexamic acid group and placebo group (42 [0·7%] of 5952 vs 46 [0·8%] of 5977; 0·92; 0·60 to 1·39). Venous thromboembolic events (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) were higher in tranexamic acid group than in the placebo group (48 [0·8%] of 5952 vs 26 [0·4%] of 5977; RR 1·85; 95% CI 1·15 to 2·98). Interpretation: We found that tranexamic acid did not reduce death from gastrointestinal bleeding. On the basis of our results, tranexamic acid should not be used for the treatment of gastrointestinal bleeding outside the context of a randomised trial

Radical surgery versus organ preservation via short-course radiotherapy followed by transanal endoscopic microsurgery for early-stage rectal cancer (TREC): a randomised, open-label feasibility study

Background: Radical surgery via total mesorectal excision might not be the optimal first-line treatment for early-stage rectal cancer. An organ-preserving strategy with selective total mesorectal excision could reduce the adverse effects of treatment without substantially compromising oncological outcomes. We investigated the feasibility of recruiting patients to a randomised trial comparing an organ-preserving strategy with total mesorectal excision. Methods: TREC was a randomised, open-label feasibility study done at 21 tertiary referral centres in the UK. Eligible participants were aged 18 years or older with rectal adenocarcinoma, staged T2 or lower, with a maximum diameter of 30 mm or less; patients with lymph node involvement or metastases were excluded. Patients were randomly allocated (1:1) by use of a computer-based randomisation service to undergo organ preservation with short-course radiotherapy followed by transanal endoscopic microsurgery after 8–10 weeks, or total mesorectal excision. Where the transanal endoscopic microsurgery specimen showed histopathological features associated with an increased risk of local recurrence, patients were considered for planned early conversion to total mesorectal excision. A non-randomised prospective registry captured patients for whom randomisation was considered inappropriate, because of a strong clinical indication for one treatment group. The primary endpoint was cumulative randomisation at 12, 18, and 24 months. Secondary outcomes evaluated safety, efficacy, and health-related quality of life assessed with the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) QLQ C30 and CR29 in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN14422743. Findings: Between Feb 22, 2012, and Dec 19, 2014, 55 patients were randomly assigned at 15 sites; 27 to organ preservation and 28 to radical surgery. Cumulatively, 18 patients had been randomly assigned at 12 months, 31 at 18 months, and 39 at 24 months. No patients died within 30 days of initial treatment, but one patient randomly assigned to organ preservation died within 6 months following conversion to total mesorectal excision with anastomotic leakage. Eight (30%) of 27 patients randomly assigned to organ preservation were converted to total mesorectal excision. Serious adverse events were reported in four (15%) of 27 patients randomly assigned to organ preservation versus 11 (39%) of 28 randomly assigned to total mesorectal excision (p=0·04, χ2 test). Serious adverse events associated with organ preservation were most commonly due to rectal bleeding or pain following transanal endoscopic microsurgery (reported in three cases). Radical total mesorectal excision was associated with medical and surgical complications including anastomotic leakage (two patients), kidney injury (two patients), cardiac arrest (one patient), and pneumonia (two patients). Histopathological features that would be considered to be associated with increased risk of tumour recurrence if observed after transanal endoscopic microsurgery alone were present in 16 (59%) of 27 patients randomly assigned to organ preservation, versus 24 (86%) of 28 randomly assigned to total mesorectal excision (p=0·03, χ2 test). Eight (30%) of 27 patients assigned to organ preservation achieved a complete response to radiotherapy. Patients who were randomly assigned to organ preservation showed improvements in patient-reported bowel toxicities and quality of life and function scores in multiple items compared to those who were randomly assigned to total mesorectal excision, which were sustained over 36 months’ follow-up. The non-randomised registry comprised 61 patients who underwent organ preservation and seven who underwent radical surgery. Non-randomised patients who underwent organ preservation were older than randomised patients and more likely to have life-limiting comorbidities. Serious adverse events occurred in ten (16%) of 61 non-randomised patients who underwent organ preservation versus one (14%) of seven who underwent total mesorectal excision. 24 (39%) of 61 non-randomised patients who underwent organ preservation had high-risk histopathological features, while 25 (41%) of 61 achieved a complete response. Overall, organ preservation was achieved in 19 (70%) of 27 randomised patients and 56 (92%) of 61 non-randomised patients. Interpretation: Short-course radiotherapy followed by transanal endoscopic microsurgery achieves high levels of organ preservation, with relatively low morbidity and indications of improved quality of life. These data support the use of organ preservation for patients considered unsuitable for primary total mesorectal excision due to the short-term risks associated with this surgery, and support further evaluation of short-course radiotherapy to achieve organ preservation in patients considered fit for total mesorectal excision. Larger randomised studies, such as the ongoing STAR-TREC study, are needed to more precisely determine oncological outcomes following different organ preservation treatment schedules. Funding: Cancer Research UK

Everolimus for the Treatment of Advanced Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: Overall Survival and Circulating Biomarkers From the Randomized, Phase III RADIANT-3 Study

Purpose Everolimus improved median progression-free survival by 6.4 months in patients with advanced pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NET) compared with placebo in the RADIANT-3 study. Here, we present the final overall survival (OS) data and data on the impact of biomarkers on OS from the RADIANT-3 study. Methods Patients with advanced, progressive, low-or intermediate-grade pancreatic NET were randomly assigned to everolimus 10 mg/day (n = 207) or placebo (n = 203). Crossover from placebo to openlabel everolimus was allowed on disease progression. Ongoing patients were unblinded after final progression-free survival analysis and could transition to open-label everolimus at the investigator's discretion (extension phase). OS analysis was performed using a stratified log-rank test in the intent-to-treat population. The baseline levels of chromogranin A, neuron-specific enolase, and multiple soluble angiogenic biomarkers were determined and their impact on OS was explored. Results Of 410 patients who were enrolled between July 2007 and March 2014, 225 received open-label everolimus, including 172 patients (85%) randomly assigned initially to the placebo arm. Median OS was 44.0 months (95% CI, 35.6 to 51.8 months) for those randomly assigned to everolimus and 37.7 months (95% CI, 29.1 to 45.8 months) for those randomly assigned to placebo (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.20; P = .30). Elevated baseline chromogranin A, neuron-specific enolase, placental growth factor, and soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1 levels were poor prognostic factors for OS. The most common adverse events included stomatitis, rash, and diarrhea. Conclusion Everolimus was associated with a median OS of 44 months in patients with advanced, progressive pancreatic NET, the longest OS reported in a phase III study for this population. Everolimus was associated with a survival benefit of 6.3 months, although this finding was not statistically significant. Crossover of patients likely confounded the OS results. (C) 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncolog