ResFrac Technical Writeup

ResFrac is a combined hydraulic fracturing, reservoir, and hydraulic fracturing simulator. It describes multiphase fluid flow (black oil or compositional), proppant transport, transport of non-Newtonian fluid additives, and thermal transport. It also includes stress shadowing from fracture propagation and porothermoelastic responses from pressure change in the matrix. It uses constitutive equations that smoothly transition between equations for flow through an open crack to flow through a closed crack (with or without proppant). This document provides a detailed technical description of the code, along with validation simulations to confirm numerical accuracy

Population decline is linked to migration route in the Common Cuckoo

Migratory species are in rapid decline globally. Although most mortality in long-distance migrant birds is thought to occur during migration, evidence of conditions on migration affecting breeding population sizes has been completely lacking. We addressed this by tracking 42 male Common Cuckoos from the rapidly declining UK population during 56 autumn migrations in 2011–14. Uniquely, the birds use two distinct routes to reach the same wintering grounds, allowing assessment of survival during migration independently of origin and destination. Mortality up to completion of the Sahara crossing (the major ecological barrier encountered in both routes) is higher for birds using the shorter route. The proportion of birds using this route strongly correlates with population decline across nine local breeding populations. Knowledge of variability in migratory behaviour and performance linked to robust population change data may therefore be necessary to understand population declines of migratory species and efficiently target conservation resources

Equity of utilisation of cardiovascular care and mental health services in England: a cohort-based cross-sectional study using small-area estimation

Background: A strong policy emphasis on the need to reduce both health inequalities and unmet need in deprived areas has resulted in the substantial redistribution of English NHS funding towards deprived areas. This raises the question of whether or not socioeconomically disadvantaged people continue to be disadvantaged in their access to and utilisation of health care.Objectives: To generate estimates of the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and common mental health disorders (CMHDs) at a variety of scales, and to make these available for public use via Public Health England (PHE). To compare these estimates with utilisation of NHS services in England to establish whether inequalities of use relative to need at various stages on the health-care pathway are associated with particular sociodemographic or other factors.Design: Cross-sectional analysis of practice-, primary care trust- and Clinical Commissioning Group-level variations in diagnosis, prescribing and specialist management of CVD and CMHDs relative to the estimated prevalence of those conditions (calculated using small-area estimation).Results: The utilisation of CVD care appears more equitable than the utilisation of care for CMHDs. In contrast to the reviewed literature, we found little evidence of underutilisation of services by older populations. Indeed, younger populations appear to be less likely to access care for some CVD conditions. Nor did deprivation emerge as a consistent predictor of lower use relative to need for either CVD or CMHDs. Ethnicity is a consistent predictor of variations in use relative to need. Rates of primarymanagement are lower than expected in areas with higher percentages of black populations for diabetes, stroke and CMHDs. Areas with higher Asian populations have higher-than-expected rates of diabetes presentation and prescribing and lower-than-expected rates of secondary care for diabetes. For both sets of conditions, there are pronounced geographical variations in use relative to need. For instance, the North East has relatively high levels of use of cardiac care services and rural (shire) areas have low levels of use relative to need. For CMHDs, there appears to be a pronounced ‘London effect’, with the number of people registered by general practitioners as having depression, or being prescribed antidepressants, being much lower in London than expected. A total of 24 CVD and 41 CMHD prevalence estimates have been provided to PHE and will be publicly available at a range of scales, from lower- and middle-layer super output areas through to Clinical Commissioning Groups and local authorities.Conclusions: We found little evidence of socioeconomic inequality in use for CVD and CMHDs relative to underlying need, which suggests that the strong targeting of NHS resources to deprived areas may well have addressed longstanding concerns about unmet need. However, ethnicity has emerged as a significant predictor of inequality, and there are large and unexplained geographical variations in use relative to need for both conditions which undermine the principle of equal access to health care for equal needs. The persistence of ethnic variations and the role of systematic factors (such as rurality) in shaping patterns ofutilisation deserve further investigation, as does the fact that the models were far better at explaining variation in use of CVD than mental health services.Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme

The CARESSES study protocol: testing and evaluating culturally competent socially assistive robots among older adults residing in long term care homes through a controlled experimental trial

Background : This article describes the design of an intervention study that focuses on whether and to what degree culturally competent social robots can improve health and well-being related outcomes among older adults residing long-term care homes. The trial forms the final stage of the international, multidisciplinary CARESSES project aimed at designing, developing and evaluating culturally competent robots that can assist older people according to the culture of the individual they are supporting. The importance of cultural competence has been demonstrated in previous nursing literature to be key towards improving health outcomes among patients. Method : This study employed a mixed-method, single-blind, parallel-group controlled before-and-after experimental trial design that took place in England and Japan. It aimed to recruit 45 residents of long-term care homes aged ≥65 years, possess sufficient cognitive and physical health and who self-identify with the English, Indian or Japanese culture (n = 15 each). Participants were allocated to either the experimental group, control group 1 or control group 2 (all n = 15). Those allocated to the experimental group or control group 1 received a Pepper robot programmed with the CARESSES culturally competent artificial intelligence (experimental group) or a limited version of this software (control group 1) for 18 h across 2 weeks. Participants in control group 2 did not receive a robot and continued to receive care as usual. Participants could also nominate their informal carer(s) to participate. Quantitative data collection occurred at baseline, after 1 week of use, and after 2 weeks of use with the latter time-point also including qualitative semi-structured interviews that explored their experience and perceptions further. Quantitative outcomes of interest included perceptions of robotic cultural competence, health-related quality of life, loneliness, user satisfaction, attitudes towards robots and caregiver burden. Discussion : This trial adds to the current preliminary and limited pool of evidence regarding the benefits of socially assistive robots for older adults which to date indicates considerable potential for improving outcomes. It is the first to assess whether and to what extent cultural competence carries importance in generating improvements to well-being

Industry not harvest: Principles to minimise collateral damage in impact assessment at scale

The recent institutional submissions and conclusion of the first phase of the REF, coupled with the announcement of a wide-ranging review of research assessment in the UK, has provided space for renewed thinking on the state of research assessment. In this post, Julie Bayley, Kieran Fenby-Hulse, Chris Hewson and Anne Jolly, present reflections on the wider systemic effects of research and impact assessment within higher education institutions during the most recent round of the REF and discuss how principles derived from these observations might inform an approach to research assessment that is more inclusive, consistent and reduces unintended consequences. 1. We must recognise that impact assessment is an industry, not a harvesting of naturally occurring effects, and that this has resourcing implications which are felt unevenly across the sector 2. A clearer understanding is required of the disenfranchising effects felt by those in the broader research ecosystem, particularly individuals not portrayed as impact leaders within case study narratives 3. The sector must develop a clearer understanding of the risks inherent in instrumentalising and commodifying stakeholder relationships, and how this sits in contradiction to other parts of the research ecosystem (e.g., KEF

An experimental evaluation of the effects of geolocator design and attachment method on between-year survival on Whinchats Saxicola rubetra

Data from location logging tags have revolutionised our understanding of migration ecology, but methods of tagging that do not compromise survival need to be identified. We compared resighting rates for 156 geolocator-tagged and 316 colour ringed-only whinchats on their African wintering grounds after migration to and from eastern Europe in two separate years. We experimentally varied both light stalk length (0, 5 and 10 mm) and harness material (elastic or non-elastic nylon braid tied on, leg-loop ‘Rappole’ harnesses) in the second year using a reasonably balanced design (all tags in the first year used an elastic harness and 10 mm light stalk). Tags weighed 0.63 g (0.01 SE), representing 4.1% of average body mass. There was no overall significant reduction in between-year resighting rate (our proxy for survival) comparing tagged and untagged birds in either year. When comparing within tagged birds, however, using a tied harness significantly reduced resighting rate by 53% on average compared to using an elastic harness (in all models), but stalk length effects were not statistically significant in any model considered. There was no strong evidence that the fit (relative tightness) or added tag mass affected survival, although tied tags were fitted more tightly later in the study, and birds fitted with tied tags later may have had lower survival. Overall, on a precautionary principle, deploying tags with non-elastic tied harnesses should be avoided because the necessary fit, so as not to reduce survival, is time-consuming to achieve and does not necessarily improve with experience. Geolocator tags of the recommended percentage of body mass fitted with elastic leg-loop harnesses and with short light stalks can be used without survival effects in small long-distance migrant birds.PostprintPeer reviewe

Connectivity between countries established by landbirds and raptors migrating along the African–Eurasian flyway

The conservation of long-distance migratory birds requires coordination between the multiple countries connected by the movements of these species. The recent expansion of tracking studies is shedding new light on these movements, but much of this information is fragmented and inaccessible to conservation practitioners and policy makers. We synthesized current knowledge on the connectivity established between countries by landbirds and raptors migrating along the African–Eurasian flyway. We reviewed tracking studies to compile migration records for 1229 individual birds, from which we derived 544 migratory links, each link corresponding to a species’ connection between a breeding country in Europe and a nonbreeding country in sub-Saharan Africa. We used these migratory links to analyze trends in knowledge over time and spatial patterns of connectivity per country (across species), per species (across countries), and at the flyway scale (across all countries and all species). The number of tracking studies available increased steadily since 2010 (particularly for landbirds), but the coverage of existing tracking data was highly incomplete. An average of 7.5% of migratory landbird species and 14.6% of raptor species were tracked per country. More data existed from central and western European countries, and it was biased toward larger bodied species. We provide species- and country-level syntheses of the migratory links we identified from the reviewed studies, involving 123 populations of 43 species, migrating between 28 European and 43 African countries. Several countries (e.g., Spain, Poland, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo) are strategic priorities for future tracking studies to complement existing data, particularly on landbirds. Despite the limitations in existing tracking data, our data and results can inform discussions under 2 key policy instruments at the flyway scale: the African–Eurasian Migratory Landbirds Action Plan and the Memorandum of Understanding on the Conservation of Migratory Birds of Prey in Africa and Eurasia.Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia - FCTinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Spatial variation in spring arrival patterns of Afro‐Palaearctic bird migration across Europe

Aim: Geographical patterns of migrant species arrival have been little studied, despite their relevance to global change responses. Here, we quantify continent-wide inter-specific variation in spatio-temporal patterns of spring arrival of 30 common migrant bird species and relate these to species characteristics and environmental conditions.Location: EuropeTime period: 2010-2019Major taxa studied: Birds, 30 speciesMethods: Using citizen science data from EuroBirdPortal, we modelled arrival phenology for 30 Afro-Palearctic migrant species across Europe to extract start and duration of species arrival at a 400 km square resolution. We related inter and intra-specific variation in arrival and duration to species characteristics and temperature at the start of the growing season (green-up) .Results: Spatial variation in start of arrival times indicates it took on average 1.6 days for the leading migratory front to move northwards by 100 km (range: 0.6—2.5 days). There was a major gradient in arrival phenology, from species which arrived earlier, least synchronously, in colder temperatures and progressed slowly northwards to species which arrived later, most synchronously and in warmer temperatures, and advanced quickly through Europe. The slow progress of early arrivers suggests that temperature limits their northward advance; this group included Aerial Insectivores and species wintering north of the Sahel. For the late arrivers, which included species wintering further south, seasonal resource availability in Africa may delay their arrival into Europe.Main conclusions: We found support for the green-wave hypothesis applying widely to migratory landbirds. Species arrival phenologies are linked to ecological differences between taxa, such as diet, and wintering location. Understanding these differences informs predictions of species’ sensitivity to global change. Publishing these arrival phenologies will facilitate further research and have additional conservation benefits such as informing designation of hunting seasons. Our methods are applicable to any taxa with repeated occurrence data across large scales. Key words: phenology, European-African migrants, bird migration, spring arrival, spatial variation, intraspecific and interspecific variation, EuroBirdPortal, citizen scientists, complete lists and casual record

Combining remote sensing and tracking data to quantify species' cumulative exposure to anthropogenic change

Identifying when and where organisms are exposed to anthropogenic change is crucial for diagnosing the drivers of biodiversity declines and implementing effective conservation measures. Accurately measuring individual-scale exposure to anthropogenic impacts across the annual cycle as they move across continents requires an approach that is both spatially and temporally explicit—now achievable through recent parallel advances in remote-sensing and individual tracking technologies. We combined 10 years of tracking data for a long-distance migrant, (common cuckoo, Cuculus canorus), with multi-dimensional remote-sensed spatial datasets encompassing thirteen relevant anthropogenic impacts (including infrastructure, hunting, habitat change, and climate change), to quantify mean hourly and total accumulated exposure of tracked individuals to anthropogenic change across each stage of the annual cycle. Although mean hourly exposure to anthropogenic change was greatest in the breeding stage, accumulated exposure to changes associated with direct mortality risks (e.g., built infrastructure) and with climate were greatest during the wintering stage, which comprised 63% of the annual cycle on average for tracked individuals. Exposure to anthropogenic change varied considerably within and between migratory flyways, but there were no clear between-flyway differences in overall exposure during migration stages. However, more easterly autumn migratory routes were significantly associated with lower subsequent exposure to anthropogenic impacts in the winter stage. Cumulative change exposure was not significantly associated with recent local-scale population trends in the breeding range, possibly because cuckoos from shared breeding areas may follow divergent migration routes and therefore encounter very different risk landscapes. Our study highlights the potential for the integration of tracking data and high-resolution remote sensing to generate valuable and detailed new insights into the impacts of environmental change on wild species

Spring migration strategies of Whinchat Saxicola rubetra when successfully crossing potential barriers of the Sahara and the Mediterranean Sea

This work was supported by Chris Goodwin, A.P. Leventis Conservation Foundation, AP Leventis Ornithological Research Institute, the British Ornithologists’ Union and the Linnean Society.The flexibility for migrant land birds to be able to travel long distances rapidly without stop-overs, and thus to cross wide inhospitable areas such as deserts and oceans, is likely to be a major determinant of their survival during migration. We measured variation in flight distance, speed, and duration of major stop-overs (more than two days), using geolocator tracks of 35 Whinchats Saxicola rubetra that migrated successfully from central Nigeria to Eastern Europe in spring, and how these measures changed, or depended on age, when crossing the barriers of the Sahara or the Mediterranean Sea. Thirty-one percent of Whinchats crossed at least the Sahara and the Mediterranean before a major stop-over; 17% travelled over 4,751 km on average without any major stop-overs. Flight distance and speed during, and duration of major stop-overs after, crossing the Mediterranean Sea were indistinguishable from migration over Continental Europe. Speed during a migration leg was lowest crossing Continental Europe and fastest, with longer duration major stop-overs afterwards, when crossing the Sahara, but there was much individual variation, and start date of migration was also a good predictor of stop-over duration. As the distance travelled during a leg increased, so major stop-over duration afterwards increased (1 day for every 1000km), but the speed of travel during the leg had no effect. There were no differences in any migration characteristics with age, other than an earlier start date for adult birds. The results suggest that adaptive shortening or even dropping of daily stop-overs may occur often, allowing rapid, long-distance migration at the cost of major stop-overs afterwards, but such behaviour is not restricted to or always found when crossing barriers, even for birds on their first spring migration. The results may highlight the importance of stop-over sites rather than barrier width as the likely key component to successful migration. Individual variation in spring migration may indicate that small passerine migrants like Whinchats may be resilient to future changes in the extent of barriers they encounter, although this may not be true of first autumn migrations or if stop-over sites are lost.PostprintPeer reviewe