Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Sub-millimeter Tests of the Gravitational Inverse-square Law

Motivated by a variety of theories that predict new effects, we tested the gravitational 1/r^2 law at separations between 10.77 mm and 137 microns using two different 10-fold azimuthally symmetric torsion pendulums and rotating 10-fold symmetric attractors. Our work improves upon other experiments by up to a factor of about 100. We found no deviation from Newtonian physics at the 95% confidence level and interpret these results as constraints on extensions of the Standard Model that predict Yukawa or power-law forces. We set a constraint on the largest single extra dimension (assuming toroidal compactification and that one extra dimension is significantly larger than all the others) of R <= 160 microns, and on two equal-sized large extra dimensions of R <= 130 microns. Yukawa interactions with |alpha| >= 1 are ruled out at 95% confidence for lambda >= 197 microns. Extra-dimensions scenarios stabilized by radions are restricted to unification masses M >= 3.0 TeV/c^2, regardless of the number of large extra dimensions. We also provide new constraints on power-law potentials V(r)\propto r^{-k} with k between 2 and 5 and on the gamma_5 couplings of pseudoscalars with m <= 10 meV/c^2.Comment: 34 pages, 38 figure

Gravitational Lensing at Millimeter Wavelengths

With today's millimeter and submillimeter instruments observers use gravitational lensing mostly as a tool to boost the sensitivity when observing distant objects. This is evident through the dominance of gravitationally lensed objects among those detected in CO rotational lines at z>1. It is also evident in the use of lensing magnification by galaxy clusters in order to reach faint submm/mm continuum sources. There are, however, a few cases where millimeter lines have been directly involved in understanding lensing configurations. Future mm/submm instruments, such as the ALMA interferometer, will have both the sensitivity and the angular resolution to allow detailed observations of gravitational lenses. The almost constant sensitivity to dust emission over the redshift range z=1-10 means that the likelihood for strong lensing of dust continuum sources is much higher than for optically selected sources. A large number of new strong lenses are therefore likely to be discovered with ALMA, allowing a direct assessment of cosmological parameters through lens statistics. Combined with an angular resolution <0.1", ALMA will also be efficient for probing the gravitational potential of galaxy clusters, where we will be able to study both the sources and the lenses themselves, free of obscuration and extinction corrections, derive rotation curves for the lenses, their orientation and, thus, greatly constrain lens models.Comment: 69 pages, Review on quasar lensing. Part of a LNP Topical Volume on "Dark matter and gravitational lensing", eds. F. Courbin, D. Minniti. To be published by Springer-Verlag 2002. Paper with full resolution figures can be found at ftp://oden.oso.chalmers.se/pub/tommy/mmviews.ps.g

Low Q^2 Jet Production at HERA and Virtual Photon Structure

The transition between photoproduction and deep-inelastic scattering is investigated in jet production at the HERA ep collider, using data collected by the H1 experiment. Measurements of the differential inclusive jet cross-sections dsigep/dEt* and dsigmep/deta*, where Et* and eta* are the transverse energy and the pseudorapidity of the jets in the virtual photon-proton centre of mass frame, are presented for 0 < Q2 < 49 GeV2 and 0.3 < y < 0.6. The interpretation of the results in terms of the structure of the virtual photon is discussed. The data are best described by QCD calculations which include a partonic structure of the virtual photon that evolves with Q2.Comment: 20 pages, 5 Figure

Hadron Production in Diffractive Deep-Inelastic Scattering

Characteristics of hadron production in diffractive deep-inelastic positron-proton scattering are studied using data collected in 1994 by the H1 experiment at HERA. The following distributions are measured in the centre-of-mass frame of the photon dissociation system: the hadronic energy flow, the Feynman-x (x_F) variable for charged particles, the squared transverse momentum of charged particles (p_T^{*2}), and the mean p_T^{*2} as a function of x_F. These distributions are compared with results in the gamma^* p centre-of-mass frame from inclusive deep-inelastic scattering in the fixed-target experiment EMC, and also with the predictions of several Monte Carlo calculations. The data are consistent with a picture in which the partonic structure of the diffractive exchange is dominated at low Q^2 by hard gluons.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Phys. Lett.

Measurement of D* Meson Cross Sections at HERA and Determination of the Gluon Density in the Proton using NLO QCD

With the H1 detector at the ep collider HERA, D* meson production cross sections have been measured in deep inelastic scattering with four-momentum transfers Q^2>2 GeV2 and in photoproduction at energies around W(gamma p)~ 88 GeV and 194 GeV. Next-to-Leading Order QCD calculations are found to describe the differential cross sections within theoretical and experimental uncertainties. Using these calculations, the NLO gluon momentum distribution in the proton, x_g g(x_g), has been extracted in the momentum fraction range 7.5x10^{-4}< x_g <4x10^{-2} at average scales mu^2 =25 to 50 GeV2. The gluon momentum fraction x_g has been obtained from the measured kinematics of the scattered electron and the D* meson in the final state. The results compare well with the gluon distribution obtained from the analysis of scaling violations of the proton structure function F_2.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Nucl. Phys.

Measurement of Leading Proton and Neutron Production in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

Deep--inelastic scattering events with a leading baryon have been detected by the H1 experiment at HERA using a forward proton spectrometer and a forward neutron calorimeter. Semi--inclusive cross sections have been measured in the kinematic region 2 <= Q^2 <= 50 GeV^2, 6.10^-5 <= x <= 6.10^-3 and baryon p_T <= MeV, for events with a final state proton with energy 580 <= E' <= 740 GeV, or a neutron with energy E' >= 160 GeV. The measurements are used to test production models and factorization hypotheses. A Regge model of leading baryon production which consists of pion, pomeron and secondary reggeon exchanges gives an acceptable description of both semi-inclusive cross sections in the region 0.7 <= E'/E_p <= 0.9, where E_p is the proton beam energy. The leading neutron data are used to estimate for the first time the structure function of the pion at small Bjorken--x.Comment: 30 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Eur. Phys.

Charmonium Production in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

The electroproduction of J/psi and psi(2S) mesons is studied in elastic, quasi-elastic and inclusive reactions for four momentum transfers 2 Q^2 80 GeV^2 and photon-proton centre of mass energies 25 W 180 GeV. The data were taken with the H1 detector at the electron proton collider HERA in the years 1995 to 1997. The total virtual photon-proton cross section for elastic J/psi production is measured as a function of Q^2 and W. The dependence of the production rates on the square of the momentum transfer from the proton (t) is extracted. Decay angular distributions are analysed and the ratio of the longitudinal and transverse cross sections is derived. The ratio of the cross sections for quasi-elastic psi(2S) and J/psi meson production is measured as a function of Q^2. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical models based upon perturbative QCD. Differential cross sections for inclusive and inelastic production of J/psi mesons are determined and predictions within two theoretical frameworks are compared with the data, the non-relativistic QCD factorization approach including colour octet and colour singlet contributions, and the model of Soft Colour Interactions

Genome-wide association meta-analysis of corneal curvature identifies novel loci and shared genetic influences across axial length and refractive error.

Corneal curvature, a highly heritable trait, is a key clinical endophenotype for myopia - a major cause of visual impairment and blindness in the world. Here we present a trans-ethnic meta-analysis of corneal curvature GWAS in 44,042 individuals of Caucasian and Asian with replication in 88,218 UK Biobank data. We identified 47 loci (of which 26 are novel), with population-specific signals as well as shared signals across ethnicities. Some identified variants showed precise scaling in corneal curvature and eye elongation (i.e. axial length) to maintain eyes in emmetropia (i.e. HDAC11/FBLN2 rs2630445, RBP3 rs11204213); others exhibited association with myopia with little pleiotropic effects on eye elongation. Implicated genes are involved in extracellular matrix organization, developmental process for body and eye, connective tissue cartilage and glycosylation protein activities. Our study provides insights into population-specific novel genes for corneal curvature, and their pleiotropic effect in regulating eye size or conferring susceptibility to myopia

Constraints on the cosmic expansion history from GWTC–3

We use 47 gravitational wave sources from the Third LIGO–Virgo–Kamioka Gravitational Wave Detector Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC–3) to estimate the Hubble parameter H(z), including its current value, the Hubble constant H0. Each gravitational wave (GW) signal provides the luminosity distance to the source, and we estimate the corresponding redshift using two methods: the redshifted masses and a galaxy catalog. Using the binary black hole (BBH) redshifted masses, we simultaneously infer the source mass distribution and H(z). The source mass distribution displays a peak around 34 M⊙, followed by a drop-off. Assuming this mass scale does not evolve with the redshift results in a H(z) measurement, yielding ${H}_{0}={68}_{-8}^{+12}\,\mathrm{km}\ \,\ {{\rm{s}}}^{-1}\,{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-1}$ (68% credible interval) when combined with the H0 measurement from GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart. This represents an improvement of 17% with respect to the H0 estimate from GWTC–1. The second method associates each GW event with its probable host galaxy in the catalog GLADE+, statistically marginalizing over the redshifts of each event's potential hosts. Assuming a fixed BBH population, we estimate a value of ${H}_{0}={68}_{-6}^{+8}\,\mathrm{km}\ \,\ {{\rm{s}}}^{-1}\,{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-1}$ with the galaxy catalog method, an improvement of 42% with respect to our GWTC–1 result and 20% with respect to recent H0 studies using GWTC–2 events. However, we show that this result is strongly impacted by assumptions about the BBH source mass distribution; the only event which is not strongly impacted by such assumptions (and is thus informative about H0) is the well-localized event GW190814