An Assessment of the UK’s Trade with Developing Countries under the Generalised System of Preferences

The European Union (EU) Generalised System of Preferences (GSP Scheme) grants preferential treatment to 88 eligible countries. There are, however, concerns that the restrictive features (such as Rules of Origin, Low Preference Margin and Low Coverage) of the existing scheme indicate gravitation towards commercial trade agenda to which efficiency imperatives appear subordinated. Whether these concerns are genuine is an empirical question whose answer largely determines whether, after Brexit, the UK continues with the existing specifics of the EU scheme or develops a more inclusive UK-specific GSP framework. This study quantitatively examines the efficiency of the EU GSP as it relates to UK beneficiaries from 2014 to 2017. We draw on the descriptive efficiency estimation (The utilisation Rate, Potential Coverage Rate, and the Utility Rate) using import data across 88 beneficiary countries and agricultural products of the Harmonised System Code Chapter 1 to 24. Asides the Rules of Origin that, generally, harm the uptake of GSP, low preference margin is found to cause low utilisation rates in a non-linear manner. Essentially, a more robust option (such that allows “global Cumulation” or broader product coverage) could, substantially, lower the existing barriers to trade and upsurge the efficiency of the GSP scheme

Preventing mental health problems in children : the families in mind population-based cluster randomised controlled trial.

BackgroundExternalising and internalising problems affect one in seven school-aged children and are the single strongest predictor of mental health problems into early adolescence. As the burden of mental health problems persists globally, childhood prevention of mental health problems is paramount. Prevention can be offered to all children (universal) or to children at risk of developing mental health problems (targeted). The relative effectiveness and costs of a targeted only versus combined universal and targeted approach are unknown. This study aims to the effectiveness, costs and uptake of two approaches to early childhood prevention of mental health problems ie: a Combined universal-targeted approach, versus a Targeted only approach, in comparison to current primary care services (Usual care).DesignThree armed, population-level cluster randomised trial (2010-2014) within the universal, well child Maternal Child Health system, attended by more than 80% of families in Victoria, Australia at infant age eight months. Participants: Families of eight month old children from nine participating local government areas. Randomised to one of three groups: Combined, Targeted or Usual care. Intervention: (a) the Combined universal and targeted program where all families are offered the universal Toddlers Without Tears group parenting program followed by the targeted Family Check-Up one-on-one program or (b) the Targeted Family Check-Up program. The Family Check-Up program is only offered to children at risk of behavioural problems. Analysis: Participants will be analysed according to the trial arm to which they were randomised, using logistic and linear regression models to compare primary and secondary outcomes. An economic evaluation (cost consequences analysis) will compare incremental costs to all incremental outcomes from a societal perspective.DiscussionThis trial will inform public health policy by making recommendations about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these early prevention programs. If effective prevention programs can be implemented at the population level, the growing burden of mental health problems could be curbed.<br /

Kant on the Highest Moral-Physical Good: The Social Aspect of Kant's Moral Philosophy

In §88, entitled ‘On the highest moral-physical good’, in his Anthropology from a Pragmatic Point of View (hereafter Anthropology for short), Kant argues that ‘good living’ (physical good) and ‘true humanity’ (moral good) best harmonize in a ‘good meal in good company’. The conversation and company shared over a meal, Kant argues, best provides for the ‘union of social good living with virtue’ in a way that promotes ‘true humanity’. This occurs when the inclination to ‘good living’ is not merely kept within the bounds of ‘the law of virtue’ but where the two achieve a graceful harmony. As such, it is not to be confused with Kant's well-known account of the ‘highest good’, happiness in proportion to virtue. But how is it that the humble dinner party and the associated practices of hospitality come to hold such an important, if often unrecognized, place as the highest moral-physical good in Kant's thought? This question is in need of further investigation. Of the most recent studies in English that have taken seriously the importance of Kant's Anthropology for understanding his wider moral philosophy, very few have considered §88 in any depth. This paper aims to help bridge this signifcant gap in the literature.36 page(s

Intercomparison of NO2, O4, O3 and HCHO slant column measurements by MAX-DOAS and zenith-sky UV¿visible spectrometers during CINDI-2

40 pags., 22 figs., 13 tabs.In September 2016, 36 spectrometers from 24 institutes measured a number of key atmospheric pollutants for a period of 17¿d during the Second Cabauw Intercomparison campaign for Nitrogen Dioxide measuring Instruments (CINDI-2) that took place at Cabauw, the Netherlands (51.97¿¿N, 4.93¿¿E). We report on the outcome of the formal semi-blind intercomparison exercise, which was held under the umbrella of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and the European Space Agency (ESA). The three major goals of CINDI-2 were (1) to characterise and better understand the differences between a large number of multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) and zenith-sky DOAS instruments and analysis methods, (2) to define a robust methodology for performance assessment of all participating instruments, and (3) to contribute to a harmonisation of the measurement settings and retrieval methods. This, in turn, creates the capability to produce consistent high-quality ground-based data sets, which are an essential requirement to generate reliable long-term measurement time series suitable for trend analysis and satellite data validation. The data products investigated during the semi-blind intercomparison are slant columns of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), the oxygen collision complex (O4) and ozone (O3) measured in the UV and visible wavelength region, formaldehyde (HCHO) in the UV spectral region, and NO2 in an additional (smaller) wavelength range in the visible region. The campaign design and implementation processes are discussed in detail including the measurement protocol, calibration procedures and slant column retrieval settings. Strong emphasis was put on the careful alignment and synchronisation of the measurement systems, resulting in a unique set of measurements made under highly comparable air mass conditions. The CINDI-2 data sets were investigated using a regression analysis of the slant columns measured by each instrument and for each of the target data products. The slope and intercept of the regression analysis respectively quantify the mean systematic bias and offset of the individual data sets against the selected reference (which is obtained from the median of either all data sets or a subset), and the rms error provides an estimate of the measurement noise or dispersion. These three criteria are examined and for each of the parameters and each of the data products, performance thresholds are set and applied to all the measurements. The approach presented here has been developed based on heritage from previous intercomparison exercises. It introduces a quantitative assessment of the consistency between all the participating instruments for the MAX-DOAS and zenith-sky DOAS techniques.CINDI-2 received funding from the Netherlands Space Office (NSO). Funding for this study was provided by ESA through the CINDI-2 (ESA contract no. 4000118533/16/ISbo) and FRM4DOAS (ESA contract no. 4000118181/16/I-EF) projects and partly within the EU 7th Framework Programme QA4ECV project (grant agreement no. 607405). The BOKU MAX-DOAS instrument was funded and the participation of Stefan F. Schreier was supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): I 2296-N29. The participation of the University of Toronto team was supported by the Canadian Space Agency (through the AVATARS project) and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (through the PAHA project). The instrument was primarily funded by the Canada Foundation for Innovation and is usually operated at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) by the Canadian Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Change (CANDAC). Funding for CISC was provided by the UVAS (“Ultraviolet and Visible Atmospheric Sounder”) projects SEOSAT/INGENIO, ESP2015-71299- R, MINECO-FEDER and UE. The activities of the IUP-Heidelberg were supported by the DFG project RAPSODI (grant no. PL 193/17-1). SAOZ and Mini-SAOZ instruments are supported by the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) and the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES). INTA recognises support from the National funding projects HELADO (CTM2013-41311-P) and AVATAR (CGL2014-55230-R). AMOIAP recognises support from the Russian Science Foundation (grant no. 16-17-10275) and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant nos. 16-05- 01062 and 18-35-00682). Ka L. Chan received transnational access funding from ACTRIS-2 (H2020 grant agreement no. 654109). Rainer Volkamer recognises funding from NASA’s Atmospheric Composition Program (NASA-16-NUP2016-0001) and the US National Science Foundation (award AGS-1620530). Henning Finkenzeller is the recipient of a NASA graduate fellowship. Mihalis Vrekoussis recognises support from the University of Bremen and the DFG Research Center/Cluster of Excellence “The Ocean in the Earth System-MARUM”. Financial support through the University of Bremen Institutional Strategy in the framework of the DFG Excellence Initiative is gratefully appreciated for Anja Schönhardt. Pandora instrument deployment was supported by Luftblick through the ESA Pandonia Project and NASA Pandora Project at the Goddard Space Flight Center under NASA Headquarters’ Tropospheric Composition Program. The article processing charges for this open-access publication were covered by BK Scientific

Monetizing the IoT Revolution

Academics and businesses alike tend to fail at understanding how the IoT revolution is monetized. We outline three main categories of how IoT will impact business models: (a) improved customer matching and tracking of marketing returns, (b) individualized offers and pricing when consumer demand and price elasticities can be identified, and (c) smart device and usage monitoring that allows for outcome-based contracts and servitization. Data convergence creates context-based-intelligence, which enables a shift from using consumer profiles for targeted advertising to individualized offers and pricing. The required depth of both consumer data and understanding of context will require collaborative efforts between companies and blur the lines between industrial- and consumer-IoT applications. Outlining concerns for privacy and cybersecurity, we find that consumer demand for decision-simplicity and relevant content aligns with the business model of “free” services in return for data, despite consumer concerns relating to data collection

Two Essays on Sales of Distressed Real Estate

Abstract As households across large parts of the world are increasingly leveraged, an understanding of the risks and consequences associated with household credit default is of great importance. This thesis consists of two essays with a focus on foreclosed residential properties. More specifically, the market of such sales and the impact on sale price caused by such a sale mechanism as compared to sales on the general market. Research on foreclosed properties is primarily based upon U.S. data; this thesis therefore adds research in an institutional setting having received little previous attention. The first essay is co-authored with Han-Suck Song and Mats Wilhelmsson. A spatial hedonic model is applied on transaction data of apartments and single-family houses sold in Stockholm, Sweden, during the period of 2006 to 2013. Discounts on price of 20.1% and 24.6% are estimated for foreclosed apartments and single-family houses, respectively. Apartments that have been sold due to a lost membership in the housing association to which the apartment belongs are sold at a 29.1% discount. The larger discount is a likely consequence of such sales being restricted in the number of attempted auctions. The second essay applies propensity score matching on transaction data and repeat-sales data of single-family houses sold in Stockholm, Sweden, during the period of 2005 to mid-2014. A 5.2 times higher rate of turnover subsequent of a foreclosure as compared to similar properties sold on the general market indicates that professional buyers are taking advantage of a discount on price. Further support towards that foreclosed properties are sold at a discount is found by estimation of holding period returns. Foreclosed properties are found to experience a 10.7% to 7.6% lower annualized return prior to a foreclosure, during a mean holding period of 4.3 years. Subsequent of a foreclosure, buyers earn a 37.7% to 48.6% higher annualized return, during a mean holding period of 1.2 years, as compared to returns achieved by those having bought similar properties on the general market. As 15.4% of foreclosed properties have been bought by a buyer having bought more than one such property, a lack of competition provides a possible explanation for lower sale prices. 4 Sammanfattning Då hushåll över stora delar av världen blir allt mer belånade, är det viktigt att förstå riskerna och konsekvenserna av denna utveckling. Denna avhandling består av två uppsatser med fokus på exekutivt försålda privatbostäder. Uppsatserna studerar hur marknaden för sådana objekt ser ut, och hur försäljningspriset påverkas av en sådan försäljning jämfört med försäljningar på den öppna marknaden. Tidigare forskning på ämnet är framförallt baserad på amerikanska data, denna avhandling bidrar därför med forskning som tar hänsyn till institutionella förutsättningar som hittills fått en begränsad uppmärksamhet. I den andra uppsatsen tillämpas propensity score matchning på transaktionsdata och avkastningsdata på småhus som sålts i Stockholm under perioden mellan 2005 till mitten av 2014. En 5,2 gånger högre omsättningshastighet efter en exekutiv försäljning jämfört med liknande fastigheter som sålts på den öppna marknaden visar att professionella köpare dra nytta av lägre priser. Avkastningsdata ger ytterligare stöd för att exekutiva försäljningar leder till lägre priser. Fastigheter som sålts exekutivt har en 10,7 % till 7,6 % lägre årlig avkastning jämfört med liknande fastigheter före en exekutiv försäljning, under en genomsnittlig innehavsperiod på 4,3 år. Efter en exekutiv försäljning tjänar köpare en 37,7% till 48,6% högre årlig avkastning, under en genomsnittlig innehavsperiod på 1,2 år, jämfört med den avkastning som uppnås genom köp av liknande fastigheter på den allmänna marknaden. Att 15,4 % av de exekutivt försålda fastigheterna hade köpts av en köpare som köpt mer än ett sådant objekt tyder på att bristande konkurrens är en möjlig förklaring till lägre försäljningspriser.

Essays on Foreclosures and Housing Debt

This thesis consists of four self-contained essays in the field of real estate economics, and specifically, the market for single-family homes. The first three essays examine sales of foreclosed properties, while essay four is on the conversion process of rental apartments to owner-occupied units in the co-operative form. These topics have a common denominator in the analysis of real estate markets and a link to debt financing. The effect of a foreclosure on price is examined through several methods. In the first essay, a spatial hedonic model is applied on transaction data. In the second essay, the impact on holding-period returns and the rate-of-turnover is estimated through propensity-score matching. Hedonic regressions and appraisal data is used in the third essay, which analyzes the determinants of the price impact caused by a forced sale. The impact of local market conditions is tested and a discount on price is related to the search process among market participants. The second topic of conversions is addressed in essay four, which focuses on an informational asymmetry between tenants involved in the conversion process and other market participants. An incentive to mismanage housing co-operatives financially is examined through hedonic models applied to apartment transaction data. Denna avhandling består av fyra självständiga uppsatser inom området fastighetsekonomi, och mer specifikt marknaden för ägda bostäder. De tre första uppsatserna undersöker exekutiva försäljningar av bostäder medan uppsats fyra undersöker processen att ombilda hyresrätter till bostadsrätter. Dessa två teman har gemensamt att fastighetsmarknaden och relationen mellan fastigheter och skuldfinansiering analyseras. Effekten på pris som orsakas av en exekutiv försäljning undersöks med flera metoder. I uppsats ett tillämpas en spatial hedonisk modell på transaktionsdata. I den andra uppsatsen undersöks den påverkan som en exekutiv försäljning har på omsättningshastighet och avkastning genom propensity-score matchning. Hedoniska modeller och data med uppskattade värden används i uppsats tre, som undersöker faktorer som påverkar den priseffekt som orsakas av en exekutiv försäljning. Påverkan av lokala marknadsförhållanden testas, och en rabatt relateras till sökprocessen hos köpare och säljare. Det andra temat i denna avhandling behandlas i uppsats fyra som har fokus på en informationsasymmetri mellan de hyresgäster som är inblandade i ombildningsprocessen från hyreslägenheter till bostadsrätter, och andra marknadsaktörer. Ett incitament för att missköta bostadsrättsföreningens ekonomi undersöks genom hedoniska modeller som tillämpas på transaktionsdata. QC 20180403</p

Essays on Foreclosures and Housing Debt

This thesis consists of four self-contained essays in the field of real estate economics, and specifically, the market for single-family homes. The first three essays examine sales of foreclosed properties, while essay four is on the conversion process of rental apartments to owner-occupied units in the co-operative form. These topics have a common denominator in the analysis of real estate markets and a link to debt financing. The effect of a foreclosure on price is examined through several methods. In the first essay, a spatial hedonic model is applied on transaction data. In the second essay, the impact on holding-period returns and the rate-of-turnover is estimated through propensity-score matching. Hedonic regressions and appraisal data is used in the third essay, which analyzes the determinants of the price impact caused by a forced sale. The impact of local market conditions is tested and a discount on price is related to the search process among market participants. The second topic of conversions is addressed in essay four, which focuses on an informational asymmetry between tenants involved in the conversion process and other market participants. An incentive to mismanage housing co-operatives financially is examined through hedonic models applied to apartment transaction data. Denna avhandling består av fyra självständiga uppsatser inom området fastighetsekonomi, och mer specifikt marknaden för ägda bostäder. De tre första uppsatserna undersöker exekutiva försäljningar av bostäder medan uppsats fyra undersöker processen att ombilda hyresrätter till bostadsrätter. Dessa två teman har gemensamt att fastighetsmarknaden och relationen mellan fastigheter och skuldfinansiering analyseras. Effekten på pris som orsakas av en exekutiv försäljning undersöks med flera metoder. I uppsats ett tillämpas en spatial hedonisk modell på transaktionsdata. I den andra uppsatsen undersöks den påverkan som en exekutiv försäljning har på omsättningshastighet och avkastning genom propensity-score matchning. Hedoniska modeller och data med uppskattade värden används i uppsats tre, som undersöker faktorer som påverkar den priseffekt som orsakas av en exekutiv försäljning. Påverkan av lokala marknadsförhållanden testas, och en rabatt relateras till sökprocessen hos köpare och säljare. Det andra temat i denna avhandling behandlas i uppsats fyra som har fokus på en informationsasymmetri mellan de hyresgäster som är inblandade i ombildningsprocessen från hyreslägenheter till bostadsrätter, och andra marknadsaktörer. Ett incitament för att missköta bostadsrättsföreningens ekonomi undersöks genom hedoniska modeller som tillämpas på transaktionsdata. QC 20180403</p

Värdering av råmark, byggrätter, och projektfastigheter : Arbetssätt, problem och slutsatser

I denna rapport kartläggs arbetsgång och problem med att värdera råmark, byggrätter och projektfastigheter i Sverige. Rapporten skrivs på uppdrag av RICS för att i ett svenskt sammanhang kartlägga arbetsgången och källor till problem för värdering av råmark, byggrätter och projektfastigheter. Organisationen Samhällsbyggarna har, genom dess värderarsektion, deltagit i framtagandet av rapporten och ställer sig bakom rapportens slutsatser och rekommendationer.        De två primära metoderna för värdering är ortsprismetod och projektkalkyl, vilka tillämpas av alla respondenter. Representanter för fastighetsbolag, konsulter, kommuner och banker har intervjuats. Redovisningen i värdeutlåtanden upplevs av branschens företrädare som problematisk. Det gäller särskilt synen på plan- och projektrisk samt redovisning av osäkerhetsfaktorer och antaganden i värdeutlåtanden. Större transparens efterfrågas, framförallt i värdeutlåtanden. I arbete med att göra värderingar anses det svårt att få information om omständigheterna för jämförelseobjekt. Utifrån resultaten av undersökningen föreslås att följande punkter ska beaktas i varje värdeutlåtande: Tydlig beskrivning av objektet och förutsättningarna för värderingen. I detta ingår syftet med värderingen, vilka antaganden som görs (och av vem) samt det stadie av planering marken befinner sig i. Begreppet byggrätt bör endast avse mark med lagakraftvunnen detaljplan. Vilken typ av värde som avses ska tydligt framgå. Framförallt om det avser ett marknadsvärde under särskilda förutsättningar. Det bör också framgå om värdet avser byggklar mark eller om ytterligare kostnader tillkommer. När ortsprismetod tillämpas bör jämförelseobjekten redovisas tydligt så att omständigheterna kring varje transaktion framgår. I detta ingår vilken typ av transaktion som avses (köp eller markanvisning), tilläggsköpeskillingar, exploateringsbidrag samt förutsättningar för grundläggning och miljörisker. I en projektkalkyl bör de värdepåverkande intäkts- och kostnadsposterna separeras, redovisas och härledas. Känslighetsanalyser bör göras för varje post som bygger på antaganden och har en större påverkan på värdet. Det bör tydligt framgå vilken information som saknats eller antagits i värderingen och av vem informationen erhållits av. Punkterna ovan redovisas i större detalj i rapportens slutsatser och rekommendationer. Dessa ska fungera som en punktlista att gå igenom vid värdering av råmark, byggrätter och projektfastigheter. Alternativt som stöd för den som granskar ett värdeutlåtande.QC 20190301</p