Representation of electric power systems by complex networks with applications to risk vulnerability assessment

The occurrence of impact events (e.g. blackouts with vast geographic coverage) into electrical critic infrastructure systems usually require the analysis of cascade failure root causes through the conduction of structural vulnerability studies, with well-defined methodologies that may guide decision-making for implementation of preventing actions and for operation recovering into the power system (e.g. N-1 and N-t contingency studies). This technical contribution provides some alternative techniques based upon complex networks and graph theory, which in the last few years have been proposed as useful methodologies for analysis of physical behavior of electric power systems. Vulnerability assessment is achieved by testing their performance into random risks and deliberate attacks threats scenarios. Results shown in this proposal lead to conclusions on the use of complex networks for contingency analysis by means of studies of those events that result in cascade failures and consumer disconnections. La ocurrencia de eventos de alto impacto (e.g., apagón con alcance geográfico) en sistemas eléctricos usualmente se diagnostica a través de técnicas de análisis estructural de vulnerabilidad, constituidas por metodologías definidas que permiten guiar la toma de decisiones en acciones de prevención y recuperación de la normalidad en la red (e.g., contingencias N-1 y N-t). En esta contribución técnica se presenta una metodología alternativa frente a las herramientas clásicas de análisis de contingencias (teoría de grafos), que últimamente se ha validado como método útil en el análisis físico de sistemas de potencia. Se realiza una valoración de la vulnerabilidad en redes de prueba IEEE, mediante cuantificación de su comportamiento ante escenarios de riesgos de tipo aleatorio o de ataques deliberados. Estos resultados permiten concluir la viabilidad de redes complejas para análisis de contingencias, mediante el estudio de eventos desencadenantes de fallos en cascada y desconexión de consumidores

Representation of electric power systems by complex networks with applications to risk vulnerability assessment

The occurrence of impact events (e.g. blackouts with vast geographic coverage) into electrical critic infrastructure systems usually require the analysis of cascade failure root causes through the conduction of structural vulnerability studies, with well-defined methodologies that may guide decision-making for implementation of preventing actions and for operation recovering into the power system (e.g. N-1 and N-t contingency studies). This technical contribution provides some alternative techniques based upon complex networks and graph theory, which in the last few years have been proposed as useful methodologies for analysis of physical behavior of electric power systems. Vulnerability assessment is achieved by testing their performance into random risks and deliberate attacks threats scenarios. Results shown in this proposal lead to conclusions on the use of complex networks for contingency analysis by means of studies of those events that result in cascade failures and consumer disconnections. La ocurrencia de eventos de alto impacto (e.g., apagón con alcance geográfico) en sistemas eléctricos usualmente se diagnostica a través de técnicas de análisis estructural de vulnerabilidad, constituidas por metodologías definidas que permiten guiar la toma de decisiones en acciones de prevención y recuperación de la normalidad en la red (e.g., contingencias N-1 y N-t). En esta contribución técnica se presenta una metodología alternativa frente a las herramientas clásicas de análisis de contingencias (teoría de grafos), que últimamente se ha validado como método útil en el análisis físico de sistemas de potencia. Se realiza una valoración de la vulnerabilidad en redes de prueba IEEE, mediante cuantificación de su comportamiento ante escenarios de riesgos de tipo aleatorio o de ataques deliberados. Estos resultados permiten concluir la viabilidad de redes complejas para análisis de contingencias, mediante el estudio de eventos desencadenantes de fallos en cascada y desconexión de consumidores

Modelo de arborización dendrítica basado en reconstrucciones de motoneuronas frénicas en ratas adultas

El área superficial de las dendritas en motoneuronas frénicas (PhrMNs) ha sido estimada anteriormente mediante técnicas estereológicas basadas en suposiciones geométricas, y medida en tres dimensiones (3D) utilizando microscopía confocal. Dado que el 97% del área receptora de una motoneurona corresponde a sus dendritas, la ramificación y extensión dendrítica son fisiológicamente importantes para determinar la salida de sus campos receptivos. Sin embargo, limitaciones inherentes a las estimaciones basadas en morfología neuronal y la tinción incompleta de los árboles dendríticos mediante técnicas retrógradas han dificultado los estudios sistemáticos de la morfología dendrítica en PhrMNs. En este estudio, se utilizó una nueva técnica que mejora la tinción dendrítica de las PhrMNs en preparaciones fijadas ligeramente. La reconstrucción dendrítica en 3D se logró con gran precisión utilizando microscopía confocal en PhrMNs de ratas adultas. Luego de una etapa de pre-procesamiento, la segmentación de los árboles dendríticos se realizó semi-automáticamente en 3D y usando mediciones directas del área superficial, se derivó un modelo cuadrático para estimar dicha área partiendo del diámetro de la dendrita primaria (r2 = 0.932; p<0.0001). Este método podría mejorar la evaluación de la plasticidad neuronal en respuesta a trauma u otras enfermedades permitiendo la estimación de la arborización dendrítica en PhrMNs, ya que el diámetro de la dendrita primaria puede obtenerse confiablemente de numerosas técnicas de tinción retrógrada.Stereological techniques that rely on morphological assumptions and direct three-dimensional (3D) confocal measurements have been previously used to estimate the dendritic surface areas of phrenic motoneurons (PhrMNs). Given that 97% of a motoneuron’s receptive area is provided by dendrites, dendritic branching and overall extension are physiologically important in determining the output of their synaptic receptive fields. However, limitations intrinsic to shape-based estimations and incomplete labeling of dendritic trees by retrograde techniques have hindered systematic approaches to examine dendritic morphology of PhrMNs. In this study, a novel method that improves dendritic filling of PhrMNs in lightly-fixed samples was used. Confocal microscopy allowed accurate 3D reconstruction of dendritic arbors from adult rat PhrMNs. Following pre-processing, segmentation was semi-automatically performed in 3D, and direct measurements of dendritic surface area were obtained. A quadratic model for estimating dendritic tree surface area based on measurements of primary dendrite diameter was derived (r2 = 0.932; p<0.0001). This method may enhance interpretation of motoneuron plasticity in response to injury or disease by permitting estimations of dendritic arborization of PhrMNs since measurements of primary dendrite diameter can be reliably obtained from a number of retrograde labeling techniques

Material reutilizable como instrumento de innovaci?n para el desarrollo del pensamiento matem?tico

129 p. Recurso Electr?nic

Spatiotemporal variations in exposure: Chagas disease in Colombia as a case study

Age-stratified serosurvey data are often used to understand spatiotemporal trends in disease incidence and exposure through estimating the Force-of-Infection (FoI). Typically, median or mean FoI estimates are used as the response variable in predictive models, often overlooking the uncertainty in estimated FoI values when fitting models and evaluating their predictive ability. To assess how this uncertainty impact predictions, we compared three approaches with three levels of uncertainty integration. We propose a performance indicator to assess how predictions reflect initial uncertainty. In Colombia, 76 serosurveys (1980–2014) conducted at municipality level provided age-stratified Chagas disease prevalence data. The yearly FoI was estimated at the serosurvey level using a time-varying catalytic model. Environmental, demographic and entomological predictors were used to fit and predict the FoI at municipality level from 1980 to 2010 across Colombia. A stratified bootstrap method was used to fit the models without temporal autocorrelation at the serosurvey level. The predictive ability of each model was evaluated to select the best-fit models within urban, rural and (Amerindian) indigenous settings. Model averaging, with the 10 best-fit models identified, was used to generate predictions. Our analysis shows a risk of overconfidence in model predictions when median estimates of FoI alone are used to fit and evaluate models, failing to account for uncertainty in FoI estimates. Our proposed methodology fully propagates uncertainty in the estimated FoI onto the generated predictions, providing realistic assessments of both central tendency and current uncertainty surrounding exposure to Chagas disease

From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease.

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set the elimination of Chagas disease intradomiciliary vectorial transmission as a goal by 2020. After a decade, some progress has been made, but the new 2021–2030 WHO roadmap has set even more ambitious targets. Innovative and robust modelling methods are required to monitor progress towards these goals. We present a modelling pipeline using local seroprevalence data to obtain national disease burden estimates by disease stage. Firstly, local seroprevalence information is used to estimate spatio-temporal trends in the Force-of-Infection (FoI). FoI estimates are then used to predict such trends across larger and fine-scale geographical areas. Finally, predicted FoI values are used to estimate disease burden based on a disease progression model. Using Colombia as a case study, we estimated that the number of infected people would reach 506 000 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 395 000–648 000) in 2020 with a 1.0% (95%CrI = 0.8–1.3%) prevalence in the general population and 2400 (95%CrI = 1900–3400) deaths (approx. 0.5% of those infected). The interplay between a decrease in infection exposure (FoI and relative proportion of acute cases) was overcompensated by a large increase in population size and gradual population ageing, leading to an increase in the absolute number of Chagas disease cases over time. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs’

Sarcoplasmic reticulum calcium ATPase is inhibited by organic vanadium coordination compounds: pyridine-2,6-dicarboxylatodioxovanadium(V), BMOV, and an amavadine analogue

Inorg Chem. 2008 Jul 7;47(13):5677-84. doi: 10.1021/ic702405dThe general affinity of the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) Ca (2+)-ATPase was examined for three different classes of vanadium coordination complexes including a vanadium(V) compound, pyridine-2,6-dicarboxylatodioxovanadium(V) (PDC-V(V)), and two vanadium(IV) compounds, bis(maltolato)oxovanadium(IV) (BMOV), and an analogue of amavadine, bis( N-hydroxylamidoiminodiacetato)vanadium(IV) (HAIDA-V(IV)). The ability of vanadate to act either as a phosphate analogue or as a transition-state analogue with enzymes' catalysis phosphoryl group transfer suggests that vanadium coordination compounds may reveal mechanistic preferences in these classes of enzymes. Two of these compounds investigated, PDC-V(V) and BMOV, were hydrolytically and oxidatively reactive at neutral pH, and one, HAIDA-V(IV), does not hydrolyze, oxidize, or otherwise decompose to a measurable extent during the enzyme assay. The SR Ca (2+)-ATPase was inhibited by all three of these complexes. The relative order of inhibition was PDC-V(V) > BMOV > vanadate > HAIDA-V(IV), and the IC 50 values were 25, 40, 80, and 325 microM, respectively. Because the observed inhibition is more potent for PDC-V(V) and BMOV than that of oxovanadates, the inhibition cannot be explained by oxovanadate formation during enzyme assays. Furthermore, the hydrolytically and redox stable amavadine analogue HAIDA-V(IV) inhibited the Ca (2+)-ATPase less than oxovanadates. To gauge the importance of the lipid environment, studies of oxidized BMOV in microemulsions were performed and showed that this system remained in the aqueous pool even though PDC-V(V) is able to penetrate lipid interfaces. These findings suggest that the hydrolytic properties of these complexes may be important in the inhibition of the calcium pump. Our results show that two simple coordination complexes with known insulin enhancing effects can invoke a response in calcium homeostasis and the regulation of muscle contraction through the SR Ca (2+)-ATPase

Rhodium single-atom catalyst design through oxide support modulation for selective gas-phase ethylene hydroformylation

A frontier challenge in single-atom (SA) catalysis is the design of fully inorganic sites capable of emulating the high reaction selectivity traditionally exclusive of organometallic counterparts in homogeneous catalysis. Modulating the direct coordination environment in SA sites, via the exploitation of the oxide support's surface chemistry, stands as a powerful albeit underexplored strategy. We report that isolated Rh atoms stabilized on oxygen-defective SnO2 uniquely unite excellent TOF with essentially full selectivity in the gas-phase hydroformylation of ethylene, inhibiting the thermodynamically favored olefin hydrogenation. Density Functional Theory calculations and surface characterization suggest that substantial depletion of the catalyst surface in lattice oxygen, energetically facile on SnO2, is key to unlock a high coordination pliability at the mononuclear Rh centers, leading to an exceptional performance which is on par with that of molecular catalysts in liquid media