A good or a bad timetable: Do different evaluation functions agree?

Abstract We compare different evaluation functions that are all designed to mea- sure the quality of a timetable from passengers’ perspective. Already in small examples fundamentally different timetables can be preferred by evaluation functions that seem to be similar. To investigate this effect in practice, we design a set of evaluation functions as representatives for a wide range of commonly used evaluation functions in optimization models, evaluation applications, or choice models. These functions are compared by analyzing their evaluation values of multiple timetables in three case studies. To investigate to what extent these evaluation functions agree on a good or a bad timetable, we apply cluster analysis as well as a novel methodology to quantify the similarity of pairs of evaluation functions based on the values they yield on different timetables. We empirically show that the choice of the evaluation function can have a significant impact on the assessed quality of timetables, and thus also on which timetable is considered optimal, even though all evaluation functions are meant to evaluate the same - the quality of a timetable from passengers’ perspective. Due to the structure of the designed evaluation functions, it is further possible to identify which components of the func- tions influence the results of an evaluation and under which conditions they this is most pronounced. This can be very beneficial when designing timetable evaluation functions for passengers

Modeling and solving line planning with integrated mode choice

We present a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) for line planning with integrated mode and route choice. In contrast to existing approaches, the mode and route decisions are modeled according to the passengers' preferences while commercial solvers can be applied to solve the corresponding MILP. The model aims at finding line plans that maximize the profit for the public transport operator while estimating the corresponding passenger demand with choice models. Both components of profit, revenue and cost, are influenced by the line plan. Hence, the resulting line plans are not only profitable for operators but also attractive to passengers. By suitable preprocessing of the passengers' utilities, we are able to apply any choice model for mode choices using linear constraints. We provide and test means to improve the computational performance. In experiments on the Intercity network of the Randstad, a metropolitan area in the Netherlands, we show the benefits of our model compared to a standard line planning model with fixed passenger demand. Furthermore, we demonstrate with the help of our model the possibilities and limitations for operators when reacting to changes in demand in an optimal way. The results suggest that operators should regularly update their line plan in response to changes in travel demand and estimate the passenger demand during optimization

Predictors of gallstone composition in 1025 symptomatic gallstones from Northern Germany

BACKGROUND: Gallstones represent a prevalent and costly health problem. The changing epidemiology and the emerging non-surgical interventions for gallstone disease necessitate the definition of target populations for future therapies. This study aimed to define patterns of gallstone composition and identify demographic predictors of gallstone composition in a large sample of symptomatic gallstones from Northern Germany. METHODS: One thousand and seventy-four post-cholecystectomy gallstone specimens were obtained. Demographic and clinical information was provided by questionnaire (N = 1025 independent individuals with complete information). Two samples from each gallstone were analyzed using Fourier transformed infrared spectrometry. RESULTS: The most prevalent substance was cholesterol, which was detected in 95.0% of gallstone specimens. Bilirubin and bilirubinate were present in 30.0% and calcium was detected in 10.0% of the spectra. Ninety-two percent of measurements from the same stone yielded the same "main" substances, indicating a homogenous stone composition in most cases. Female sex and higher body mass index (BMI) were associated with the presence of cholesterol as a main substance in the gallstones (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The changing epidemiology of gallstone disease is reflected by a marked shift in stone composition: Only two percent of stones in this study were pigment stones as compared to 91% percent of stones containing cholesterol as a main substance. Obese individuals from Germany with a BMI > 30 kg/m(2 )have in 95% cholesterol-dominant gallstones and represent a potential target population for non-surgical interventions for the prevention or treatment of cholesterol stones

Toxocariasis: a silent threat with a progressive public health impact

Background: Toxocariasis is a neglected parasitic zoonosis that afflicts millions of the pediatric and adolescent populations worldwide, especially in impoverished communities. This disease is caused by infection with the larvae of Toxocara canis and T. cati, the most ubiquitous intestinal nematode parasite in dogs and cats, respectively. In this article, recent advances in the epidemiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis and pharmacotherapies that have been used in the treatment of toxocariasis are reviewed. Main text: Over the past two decades, we have come far in our understanding of the biology and epidemiology of toxocariasis. However, lack of laboratory infrastructure in some countries, lack of uniform case definitions and limited surveillance infrastructure are some of the challenges that hindered the estimation of global disease burden. Toxocariasis encompasses four clinical forms: visceral, ocular, covert and neural. Incorrect or misdiagnosis of any of these disabling conditions can result in severe health consequences and considerable medical care spending. Fortunately, multiple diagnostic modalities are available, which if effectively used together with the administration of appropriate pharmacologic therapies, can minimize any unnecessary patient morbidity. Conclusions: Although progress has been made in the management of toxocariasis patients, there remains much work to be done. Implementation of new technologies and better understanding of the pathogenesis of toxocariasis can identify new diagnostic biomarkers, which may help in increasing diagnostic accuracy. Also, further clinical research breakthroughs are needed to develop better ways to effectively control and prevent this serious disease

Obeticholic acid for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: interim analysis from a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial

Background Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a common type of chronic liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis. Obeticholic acid, a farnesoid X receptor agonist, has been shown to improve the histological features of NASH. Here we report results from a planned interim analysis of an ongoing, phase 3 study of obeticholic acid for NASH. Methods In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, adult patients with definite NASH,non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity score of at least 4, and fibrosis stages F2–F3, or F1 with at least oneaccompanying comorbidity, were randomly assigned using an interactive web response system in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive oral placebo, obeticholic acid 10 mg, or obeticholic acid 25 mg daily. Patients were excluded if cirrhosis, other chronic liver disease, elevated alcohol consumption, or confounding conditions were present. The primary endpointsfor the month-18 interim analysis were fibrosis improvement (≥1 stage) with no worsening of NASH, or NASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis, with the study considered successful if either primary endpoint was met. Primary analyses were done by intention to treat, in patients with fibrosis stage F2–F3 who received at least one dose of treatment and reached, or would have reached, the month 18 visit by the prespecified interim analysis cutoff date. The study also evaluated other histological and biochemical markers of NASH and fibrosis, and safety. This study is ongoing, and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02548351, and EudraCT, 20150-025601-6. Findings Between Dec 9, 2015, and Oct 26, 2018, 1968 patients with stage F1–F3 fibrosis were enrolled and received at least one dose of study treatment; 931 patients with stage F2–F3 fibrosis were included in the primary analysis (311 in the placebo group, 312 in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 308 in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). The fibrosis improvement endpoint was achieved by 37 (12%) patients in the placebo group, 55 (18%) in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group (p=0·045), and 71 (23%) in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group (p=0·0002). The NASH resolution endpoint was not met (25 [8%] patients in the placebo group, 35 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group [p=0·18], and 36 [12%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group [p=0·13]). In the safety population (1968 patients with fibrosis stages F1–F3), the most common adverse event was pruritus (123 [19%] in the placebo group, 183 [28%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 336 [51%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group); incidence was generally mild to moderate in severity. The overall safety profile was similar to that in previous studies, and incidence of serious adverse events was similar across treatment groups (75 [11%] patients in the placebo group, 72 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 93 [14%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). Interpretation Obeticholic acid 25 mg significantly improved fibrosis and key components of NASH disease activity among patients with NASH. The results from this planned interim analysis show clinically significant histological improvement that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. This study is ongoing to assess clinical outcomes

Obeticholic acid for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: interim analysis from a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a common type of chronic liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis. Obeticholic acid, a farnesoid X receptor agonist, has been shown to improve the histological features of NASH. Here we report results from a planned interim analysis of an ongoing, phase 3 study of obeticholic acid for NASH. METHODS In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, adult patients with definite NASH, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity score of at least 4, and fibrosis stages F2-F3, or F1 with at least one accompanying comorbidity, were randomly assigned using an interactive web response system in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive oral placebo, obeticholic acid 10 mg, or obeticholic acid 25 mg daily. Patients were excluded if cirrhosis, other chronic liver disease, elevated alcohol consumption, or confounding conditions were present. The primary endpoints for the month-18 interim analysis were fibrosis improvement (≥1 stage) with no worsening of NASH, or NASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis, with the study considered successful if either primary endpoint was met. Primary analyses were done by intention to treat, in patients with fibrosis stage F2-F3 who received at least one dose of treatment and reached, or would have reached, the month 18 visit by the prespecified interim analysis cutoff date. The study also evaluated other histological and biochemical markers of NASH and fibrosis, and safety. This study is ongoing, and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02548351, and EudraCT, 20150-025601-6. FINDINGS Between Dec 9, 2015, and Oct 26, 2018, 1968 patients with stage F1-F3 fibrosis were enrolled and received at least one dose of study treatment; 931 patients with stage F2-F3 fibrosis were included in the primary analysis (311 in the placebo group, 312 in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 308 in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). The fibrosis improvement endpoint was achieved by 37 (12%) patients in the placebo group, 55 (18%) in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group (p=0·045), and 71 (23%) in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group (p=0·0002). The NASH resolution endpoint was not met (25 [8%] patients in the placebo group, 35 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group [p=0·18], and 36 [12%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group [p=0·13]). In the safety population (1968 patients with fibrosis stages F1-F3), the most common adverse event was pruritus (123 [19%] in the placebo group, 183 [28%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 336 [51%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group); incidence was generally mild to moderate in severity. The overall safety profile was similar to that in previous studies, and incidence of serious adverse events was similar across treatment groups (75 [11%] patients in the placebo group, 72 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 93 [14%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). INTERPRETATION Obeticholic acid 25 mg significantly improved fibrosis and key components of NASH disease activity among patients with NASH. The results from this planned interim analysis show clinically significant histological improvement that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. This study is ongoing to assess clinical outcomes. FUNDING Intercept Pharmaceuticals