Predicting dementia risk in primary care: development and validation of the Dementia Risk Score using routinely collected data

BACKGROUND: Existing dementia risk scores require collection of additional data from patients, limiting their use in practice. Routinely collected healthcare data have the potential to assess dementia risk without the need to collect further information. Our objective was to develop and validate a 5-year dementia risk score derived from primary healthcare data. METHODS: We used data from general practices in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database from across the UK, randomly selecting 377 practices for a development cohort and identifying 930,395 patients aged 60-95 years without a recording of dementia, cognitive impairment or memory symptoms at baseline. We developed risk algorithm models for two age groups (60-79 and 80-95 years). An external validation was conducted by validating the model on a separate cohort of 264,224 patients from 95 randomly chosen THIN practices that did not contribute to the development cohort. Our main outcome was 5-year risk of first recorded dementia diagnosis. Potential predictors included sociodemographic, cardiovascular, lifestyle and mental health variables. RESULTS: Dementia incidence was 1.88 (95 % CI, 1.83-1.93) and 16.53 (95 % CI, 16.15-16.92) per 1000 PYAR for those aged 60-79 (n = 6017) and 80-95 years (n = 7104), respectively. Predictors for those aged 60-79 included age, sex, social deprivation, smoking, BMI, heavy alcohol use, anti-hypertensive drugs, diabetes, stroke/TIA, atrial fibrillation, aspirin, depression. The discrimination and calibration of the risk algorithm were good for the 60-79 years model; D statistic 2.03 (95 % CI, 1.95-2.11), C index 0.84 (95 % CI, 0.81-0.87), and calibration slope 0.98 (95 % CI, 0.93-1.02). The algorithm had a high negative predictive value, but lower positive predictive value at most risk thresholds. Discrimination and calibration were poor for the 80-95 years model. CONCLUSIONS: Routinely collected data predicts 5-year risk of recorded diagnosis of dementia for those aged 60-79, but not those aged 80+. This algorithm can identify higher risk populations for dementia in primary care. The risk score has a high negative predictive value and may be most helpful in 'ruling out' those at very low risk from further testing or intensive preventative activities

Social Class Differences in Secular Trends in Established Coronary Risk Factors over 20 Years: A Cohort Study of British Men from 1978–80 to 1998–2000

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in the UK since the late 1970s has declined more markedly among higher socioeconomic groups. However, little is known about changes in coronary risk factors in different socioeconomic groups. This study examined whether changes in established coronary risk factors in Britain over 20 years between 1978-80 and 1998-2000 differed between socioeconomic groups.Methods and Findings: A socioeconomically representative cohort of 7735 British men aged 40-59 years was followed-up from 1978-80 to 1998-2000; data on blood pressure (BP), cholesterol, body mass index (BMI) and cigarette smoking were collected at both points in 4252 survivors. Social class was based on longest-held occupation in middle-age. Compared with men in non-manual occupations, men in manual occupations experienced a greater increase in BMI (mean difference=0.33 kg/m(2); 95%CI 0.14-0.53; p for interaction=0.001), a smaller decline in non-HDL cholesterol (difference in mean change=0.18 mmol/l; 95%CI 0.11-0.25, p for interaction <= 0.0001) and a smaller increase in HDL cholesterol (difference in mean change=0.04 mmol/l; 95%CI 0.02-0.06, p for interaction <= 0.0001). However, mean systolic BP declined more in manual than non-manual groups (difference in mean change=3.6; 95%CI 2.1-5.1, p for interaction <= 0.0001). The odds of being a current smoker in 1978-80 and 1998-2000 did not differ between non-manual and manual social classes (p for interaction = 0.51).Conclusion: Several key risk factors for CHD and type 2 diabetes showed less favourable changes in men in manual occupations. Continuing priority is needed to improve adverse cardiovascular risk profiles in socially disadvantaged groups in the UK

Integrative analysis of gene expression and copy number alterations using canonical correlation analysis

Supplementary Figure 1. Representation of the samples from the tuning set by their coordinates in the first two pairs of features (extracted from the tuning set) using regularized dual CCA, with regularization parameters tx = 0.9, ty = 0.3 (left panel), and PCA+CCA (right panel). We show the representations with respect to both the copy number features and the gene expression features in a superimposed way, where each sample is represented by two markers. The filled markers represent the coordinates in the features extracted from the copy number variables, and the open markers represent coordinates in the features extracted from the gene expression variables. Samples with different leukemia subtypes are shown with different colors. The first feature pair distinguishes the HD50 group from the rest, while the second feature pair represents the characteristics of the samples from the E2A/PBX1 subtype. The high canonical correlation obtained for the tuning samples with regularized dual CCA is apparent in the left panel, where the two points for each sample coincide. Nevertheless, the extracted features have a high generalization ability, as can be seen in the left panel of Figure 5, showing the representation of the validation samples. 1 Supplementary Figure 2. Representation of the samples from the tuning set by their coordinates in the first two pairs of features (extracted from the tuning set) using regularized dual CCA, with regularization parameters tx = 0, ty = 0 (left panel), and tx = 1, ty = 1 (right panel). We show the representations with respect to both the copy number features and the gene expression features in a superimposed way, where each sample is represented by tw

Factors that influence children's gambling attitudes and consumption intentions: Lessons for gambling harm prevention research, policies and advocacy strategies

Background: Harmful gambling is a public health issue that affects not only adults but also children. With the development of a range of new gambling products, and the marketing for these products, children are potentially exposed to gambling more than ever before. While there have been many calls to develop strategies which protect children from harmful gambling products, very little is known about the factors that may influence children's attitudes towards these products. This study aimed to explore children's gambling attitudes and consumption intentions and the range of consumer socialisation factors that may influence these attitudes and behaviours. Methods: Children aged 8 to 16 years old (n = 48) were interviewed in Melbourne, Australia. A semi-structured interview format included activities with children and open-ended questions. We explored children's perceptions of the popularity of different gambling products, their current engagement with gambling, and their future gambling consumption intentions. We used thematic analysis to explore children's narratives with a focus on the range of socialising factors that may shape children's gambling attitudes and perceptions. Results: Three key themes emerged from the data. First, children's perceptions of the popularity of different products were shaped by what they had seen or heard about these products, whether through family activities, the media (and in particular marketing) of gambling products, and/or the alignment of gambling products with sport. Second, children's gambling behaviours were influenced by family members and culturally valued events. Third, many children indicated consumption intentions towards sports betting. This was due to four key factors: (1) the alignment of gambling with culturally valued activities; (2) their perceived knowledge about sport; (3) the marketing and advertising of gambling products (and in particular sports betting); and (4) the influence of friends and family. Conclusions: This study indicates that there is a range of socialisation factors, particularly family and the media (predominantly via marketing), which may be positively shaping children's gambling attitudes, behaviours and consumption intentions. There is a need for governments to develop effective policies and regulations to reduce children's exposure to gambling products and ensure they are protected from the harms associated with gambling. © 2017 The Author(s)

Factors Influencing Engagement, Perceived Usefulness and Behavioral Mechanisms Associated with a Text Message Support Program

Introduction Many studies have now demonstrated the efficacy of text messaging in positively changing behaviours. We aimed to identify features and factors that explain the effectiveness of a successful text messaging program in terms of user engagement, perceived usefulness, behavior change and program delivery preferences. Methods Mixed methods qualitative design combining four data sources; (i) analytic data extracted directly from the software system, (ii) participant survey, (iii) focus groups to identify barriers and enablers to implementation and mechanisms of effect and (iv) recruitment screening logs and text message responses to examine engagement. This evaluation was conducted within the TEXT ME trial—a parallel design, single-blind randomized controlled trial (RCT) of 710 patients with coronary heart disease (CHD). Qualitative data were interpreted using inductive thematic analysis. Results 307/352 (87% response rate) of recruited patients with CHD completed the program evaluation survey at six months and 25 participated in a focus group. Factors increasing engagement included (i) ability to save and share messages, (ii) having the support of providers and family, (iii) a feeling of support through participation in the program, (iv) the program being initiated close to the time of a cardiovascular event, (v) personalization of the messages, (vi) opportunity for initial face-to-face contact with a provider and (vii) that program and content was perceived to be from a credible source. Clear themes relating to program delivery were that diet and physical activity messages were most valued, four messages per week was ideal and most participants felt program duration should be provided for at least for six months or longer. Conclusions This study provides context and insight into the factors influencing consumer engagement with a text message program aimed at improving health-related behavior. The study suggests program components that may enhance potential success but will require integration at the development stage to optimize up-scaling

Unhealthy Gambling Amongst New Zealand Secondary School Students: An Exploration of Risk and Protective Factors

This study sought to determine the prevalence of gambling and unhealthy gambling behaviour and describe risk and protective factors associated with these behaviours amongst a nationally representative sample of New Zealand secondary school students (n = 8,500). Factor analysis and item response theory were used to develop a model to provide a measure of ‘unhealthy gambling’. Logistic regressions and multiple logistic regression models were used to investigate associations between unhealthy gambling behaviour and selected outcomes. Approximately one-quarter (24.2 %) of students had gambled in the last year, and 4.8 % had two or more indicators of unhealthy gambling. Multivariate analyses found that unhealthy gambling was associated with four main factors: more accepting attitudes towards gambling (pp = 0.0061); being worried about and/or trying to cut down on gambling (p p = 0.0009). Unhealthy gambling is a significant health issue for young people in New Zealand. Ethnic and social inequalities were apparent and these disparities need to be addressed

Rationale and methods of the European Study on Cardiovascular Risk Prevention and Management in Daily Practice (EURIKA)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The EURIKA study aims to assess the status of primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) across Europe. Specifically, it will determine the degree of control of cardiovascular risk factors in current clinical practice in relation to the European guidelines on cardiovascular prevention. It will also assess physicians' knowledge and attitudes about CVD prevention as well as the barriers impeding effective risk factor management in clinical practice.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Cross-sectional study conducted simultaneously in 12 countries across Europe. The study has two components: firstly at the physician level, assessing eight hundred and nine primary care and specialist physicians with a daily practice in CVD prevention. A physician specific questionnaire captures information regarding physician demographics, practice settings, cardiovascular prevention beliefs and management. Secondly at the patient level, including 7641 patients aged 50 years or older, free of clinical CVD and with at least one classical risk factor, enrolled by the participating physicians. A patient-specific questionnaire captures information from clinical records and patient interview regarding sociodemographic data, CVD risk factors, and current medications. Finally, each patient provides a fasting blood sample, which is sent to a central laboratory for measuring serum lipids, apolipoproteins, hemoglobin-A1c, and inflammatory biomarkers.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Primary prevention of CVD is an extremely important clinical issue, with preventable circulatory diseases remaining the leading cause of major disease burden. The EURIKA study will provide key information to assess effectiveness of and attitudes toward primary prevention of CVD in Europe. A transnational study creates opportunities for benchmarking good clinical practice across countries and improving outcomes. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00882336.)</p

The intergenerational association between parents' problem gambling and impulsivity-hyperactivity/inattention behaviors in children

Despite the well-established association between problem gambling and ADHD core categories of impulsivity-hyperactivity and inattention, the link between parents’ problem gambling and impulsivity-hyperactivity/inattention (IH/I) behaviors in children has not been investigated. This study investigated the association between parents’ problem gambling and children’s IH/I behaviors while controlling for potential confounding variables. A population-based prospective cohort followed-up from kindergarten to age 30, the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Kindergarten Children (QLSKC), provided data over three generations. Among 1358 participants at age 30, parents with a child aged 1 year or older (N=468; Mean age=4.65 years; SD=2.70) were selected. Generalized Linear Models included measures of grandparents’ and parents’ problem gambling, parents’ IH/I behaviors in childhood, and a host of risk factors and comorbidities to predict IH/I in children. Intergenerational bivariate associations were observed between grandparents’ problem gambling, parents’ IH/I in childhood and problem gambling at age 30, and between parents’ IH/I, problem gambling, and children’s IH/I behaviors. Parents’ problem gambling predicted children’s IH/I behaviors above and beyond the effects of covariates such as family and socioeconomic characteristics, alcohol and drug use, depression symptoms and parents’ gambling involvement. Parents’ IH/I behaviors in childhood also predicted children’s IH/I and had a moderating, enhancing effect on parents’ problem gambling association with their offspring’s IH/I behaviors. Problem gambling is a characteristic of parents’ mental health that is distinctively associated with children’s IH/I behaviors, above and beyond parents’ own history of IH/I and of typically related addictive, psychopathological or socioeconomic risk factors and comorbidities