Reduction of a metapopulation genetic model to an effective one island model

We explore a model of metapopulation genetics which is based on a more ecologically motivated approach than is frequently used in population genetics. The size of the population is regulated by competition between individuals, rather than by artificially imposing a fixed population size. The increased complexity of the model is managed by employing techniques often used in the physical sciences, namely exploiting time-scale separation to eliminate fast variables and then constructing an effective model from the slow modes. Remarkably, an initial model with 2$\mathcal{D}$ variables, where $\mathcal{D}$ is the number of islands in the metapopulation, can be reduced to a model with a single variable. We analyze this effective model and show that the predictions for the probability of fixation of the alleles and the mean time to fixation agree well with those found from numerical simulations of the original model.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures. Supplementary material: 22 pages, 3 figure

Self-organized patterns of coexistence out of a predator-prey cellular automaton

We present a stochastic approach to modeling the dynamics of coexistence of prey and predator populations. It is assumed that the space of coexistence is explicitly subdivided in a grid of cells. Each cell can be occupied by only one individual of each species or can be empty. The system evolves in time according to a probabilistic cellular automaton composed by a set of local rules which describe interactions between species individuals and mimic the process of birth, death and predation. By performing computational simulations, we found that, depending on the values of the parameters of the model, the following states can be reached: a prey absorbing state and active states of two types. In one of them both species coexist in a stationary regime with population densities constant in time. The other kind of active state is characterized by local coupled time oscillations of prey and predator populations. We focus on the self-organized structures arising from spatio-temporal dynamics of the coexistence. We identify distinct spatial patterns of prey and predators and verify that they are intimally connected to the time coexistence behavior of the species. The occurrence of a prey percolating cluster on the spatial patterns of the active states is also examined.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figure

Genetic effects on life-history traits in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Background: Adaptation to local habitat conditions may lead to the natural divergence of populations in life-history traits such as body size, time of reproduction, mate signaling or dispersal capacity. Given enough time and strong enough selection pressures, populations may experience local genetic differentiation. The genetic basis of many life-history traits, and their evolution according to different environmental conditions remain however poorly understood. Methods: We conducted an association study on the Glanville fritillary butterfly, using material from five populations along a latitudinal gradient within the Baltic Sea region, which show different degrees of habitat fragmentation. We investigated variation in 10 principal components, cofounding in total 21 life-history traits, according to two environmental types, and 33 genetic SNP markers from 15 candidate genes. Results: We found that nine SNPs from five genes showed strong trend for trait associations (p-values under 0.001 before correction). These associations, yet nonsignificant after multiple test corrections, with a total number of 1,086 tests, were consistent across the study populations. Additionally, these nine genes also showed an allele frequency difference between the populations from the northern fragmented versus the southern continuous landscape. Discussion: Our study provides further support for previously described trait associations within the Glanville fritillary butterfly species across different spatial scales. Although our results alone are inconclusive, they are concordant with previous studies that identified these associations to be related to climatic changes or habitat fragmentation within the angstrom land population.Peer reviewe

A niche perspective on the range expansion of symbionts

Range expansion results from complex eco-evolutionary processes where range dynamics and niche shifts interact in a novel physical space and/or environment, with scale playing a major role. Obligate symbionts (i.e. organisms permanently living on hosts) differ from free-living organisms in that they depend on strong biotic interactions with their hosts which alter their niche and spatial dynamics. A symbiotic lifestyle modifies organism–environment relationships across levels of organisation, from individuals to geographical ranges. These changes influence how symbionts experience colonisation and, by extension, range expansion. Here, we investigate the potential implications of a symbiotic lifestyle on range expansion capacity. We present a unified conceptual overview on range expansion of symbionts that integrates concepts grounded in niche and metapopulation theories. Overall, we explain how niche-driven and dispersal-driven processes govern symbiont range dynamics through their interaction across scales, from host switching to geographical range shifts. First, we describe a background framework for range dynamics based on metapopulation concepts applied to symbiont organisation levels. Then, we integrate metapopulation processes operating in the physical space with niche dynamics grounded in the environmental arena. For this purpose, we provide a definition of the biotope (i.e. living place) specific to symbionts as a hinge concept to link the physical and environmental spaces, wherein the biotope unit is a metapopulation patch (either a host individual or a land fragment). Further, we highlight the dual nature of the symbionts' niche, which is characterised by both host traits and the external environment, and define proper conceptual variants to provide a meaningful unification of niche, biotope and symbiont organisation levels. We also explore variation across systems in the relative relevance of both external environment and host traits to the symbiont's niche and their potential implications on range expansion. We describe in detail the potential mechanisms by which hosts, through their function as biotopes, could influence how some symbionts expand their range – depending on the life history and traits of both associates. From the spatial point of view, hosts can extend symbiont dispersal range via host-mediated dispersal, although the requirement for among-host dispersal can challenge symbiont range expansion. From the niche point of view, homeostatic properties of host bodies may allow symbiont populations to become insensitive to off-host environmental gradients during host-mediated dispersal. These two potential benefits of the symbiont–host interaction can enhance symbiont range expansion capacity. On the other hand, the central role of hosts governing the symbiont niche makes symbionts strongly dependent on the availability of suitable hosts. Thus, environmental, dispersal and biotic barriers faced by suitable hosts apply also to the symbiont, unless eventual opportunities for host switching allow the symbiont to expand its repertoire of suitable hosts (thus expanding its fundamental niche). Finally, symbionts can also improve their range expansion capacity through their impacts on hosts, via protecting their affiliated hosts from environmental harshness through biotic facilitation.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Extinction-colonization dynamics and host-plant choice in butterfly metapopulations.

Species living in highly fragmented landscapes often occur as metapopulations with frequent population turnover. Turnover rate is known to depend on ecological factors, such as population size and connectivity, but it may also be influenced by the phenotypic and genotypic composition of populations. The Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in Finland uses two host-plant species that vary in their relative abundance among distinct habitat patches (dry meadows) in a large network of ~1700 patches. We found no effect of host species use on local extinction. In contrast, population establishment was strongly influenced by the match between the host species composition of an empty habitat patch and the relative host use by larvae in previous years in the habitat patches that were well connected to the target patch. This "colonization effect" could be due to spatially variable plant acceptability or resistance or to spatially variable insect oviposition preference or larval performance. We show that spatial variation in adult oviposition preference occurs at the relevant spatial scale and that the other possible causes of the colonization effect can be discounted. We conclude that the colonization effect is generated by host preference influencing the movement patterns of ovipositing females. Migrant females with dissimilar host preferences have different perceptions of relative patch quality, which influences their likelihood of colonizing patches with particular host composition

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics

Scaling up the effects of inbreeding depression from individuals to metapopulations

Abstract Inbreeding is common in nature, and many laboratory studies have documented that inbreeding depression can reduce the fitness of individuals. Demonstrating the consequences of inbreeding depression on the growth and persistence of populations is more challenging because populations are often regulated by density- or frequency-dependent selection and influenced by demographic and environmental stochasticity. A few empirical studies have shown that inbreeding depression can increase extinction risk of local populations. The importance of inbreeding depression at the metapopulation level has been conjectured based on population-level studies but has not been evaluated. We quantified the impact of inbreeding depression affecting the fitness of individuals on metapopulation persistence in heterogeneous habitat networks of different sizes and habitat configuration in a context of natural butterfly metapopulations. We developed a spatial individual-based simulation model of metapopulations with explicit genetics. We used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit the model to extensive demographic, genetic, and life-history data available for the well-studied Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulations in the Åland islands in SW Finland. We compared 18 semi-independent habitat networks differing in size and fragmentation. The results show that inbreeding is more frequent in small habitat networks, and consequently, inbreeding depression elevates extinction risks in small metapopulations. Metapopulation persistence and neutral genetic diversity maintained in the metapopulations increase with the total habitat amount in and mean patch size of habitat networks. Dispersal and mating behavior interact with landscape structure to determine how likely it is to encounter kin while looking for mates. Inbreeding depression can decrease the viability of small metapopulations even when they are strongly influenced by stochastic extinction-colonization dynamics and density-dependent selection. The findings from this study support that genetic factors, in addition to demographic factors, can contribute to extinctions of small local populations and also of metapopulations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

When does cyclic dominance lead to stable spiral waves?

Species diversity in ecosystems is often accompanied by characteristic spatio-temporal patterns. Here, we consider a generic two-dimensional population model and study the spiraling patterns arising from the combined effects of cyclic dominance of three species, mutation, pair-exchange and individual hopping. The dynamics is characterized by nonlinear mobility and a Hopf bifurcation around which the system's four-phase state diagram is inferred from a complex Ginzburg-Landau equation derived using a perturbative multiscale expansion. While the dynamics is generally characterized by spiraling patterns, we show that spiral waves are stable in only one of the four phases. Furthermore, we characterize a phase where nonlinearity leads to the annihilation of spirals and to the spatially uniform dominance of each species in turn. Away from the Hopf bifurcation, when the coexistence fixed point is unstable, the spiraling patterns are also affected by the nonlinear diffusion

The milliarcsecond-scale jet of PKS 0735+178 during quiescence

We present polarimetric 5 GHz to 43 GHz VLBI observations of the BL Lacertae object PKS 0735+178, spanning March 1996 to May 2000. Comparison with previous and later observations suggests that the overall kinematic and structural properties of the jet are greatly influenced by its activity. Time intervals of enhanced activity, as reported before 1993 and after 2000 by other studies, are followed by highly superluminal motion along a rectilinear jet. In contrast the less active state in which we performed our observations, shows subluminal or slow superluminal jet features propagating through a twisted jet with two sharp bends of about 90 deg. within the innermost three-milliarcsecond jet structure. Proper motion estimates from the data presented here allow us to constrain the jet viewing angle to values < 9 deg., and the bulk Lorentz factor to be between 2 and 4.Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in A&