Linked disturbance interactions in South-Central Alaska: implications for ecosystems and people

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2013Communities and ecosystems in the Alaskan boreal forest are undergoing substantial change. People contribute to this change. They are also impacted by the consequences. For example, wildfire and spruce bark beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreaks have increased in frequency and severity due to warming trends, affecting the ecosystem and services important to people. I conducted a study to explore the social and ecological implications of changing natural disturbances. I evaluated how the occurrence of spruce bark beetle outbreak has altered the probability of wildfire between 2001 and 2009 on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. Modeling the effects of bark beetle outbreak on the probability of large wildfire (> 500 ha) and small wildfires ( 3.3 ha and the bark-beetle outbreak increased property values. Wildfires <3.3 ha decreased property values.Chapter 1. General introduction -- Chapter 2. Linked disturbance interactions in South-Central Alaska: the effects of a spruce bark beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak on a changing boreal wildfire regime -- Chapter 3. The effects of a spruce bark beetle outbreak and wildfires on property values in the wildland-urban interface of South-central, Alaska, USA -- 4. General conclusions

Changing Daily Wind Speeds on Alaska’s North Slope: Implications for Rural Hunting Opportunities

Because of their reliance on the harvest of fish and game, Alaskan rural communities have experienced a variety of impacts from climate change, the effects of which are amplified at high latitudes. We collaborated with hunters from the coastal community of Wainwright, Alaska, to document their observations of environmental change (e.g., sea ice, wind, temperature) and the implications of those changes for opportunities to hunt bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) during spring and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) during summer. We integrated hunter observations on wind with statistical analysis of daily wind speed data collected in the nearby community of Barrow, Alaska, between 1971 and 2010 to characterize changes in the number of days with suitable hunting conditions. Hunters in Wainwright currently observe fewer days than in previous decades with wind conditions suitable for safely hunting bowhead whales and caribou. The statistical analysis of wind speed data supported these conclusions and suggested that the annual windows of opportunity for hunting each species have decreased by up to seven days since 1971. This study demonstrates the potential power of collaboration between local communities and researchers to characterize the societal impacts of climate change. Continued collaborative research with residents of rural northern Alaskan communities could produce knowledge and develop tools to help rural Alaskans adapt to novel social-ecological conditions.Les collectivités rurales de l’Alaska dépendent de la récolte du poisson et du gibier et à ce titre, elles sont assujetties à une panoplie d’incidences découlant du changement climatique, dont les effets sont amplifiés en haute altitude. Grâce à l’aide des chasseurs de la collectivité côtière de Wainwright, en Alaska, nous avons consigné les observations de ces chasseurs relativement à l’évolution de l’environnement (en ce qui a trait, par exemple, à la glace de mer, au vent et aux températures) de même que les incidences de cette évolution sur les possibilités de chasse de la baleine boréale (Balaena mysticetus) au printemps, et du caribou (Rangifer tarandus) à l’été. Nous avons intégré les observations des chasseurs au sujet du vent à l’analyse statistique des données de la vitesse quotidienne du vent, données recueillies dans la localité avoisinante de Barrow, en Alaska, entre 1971 et 2010, afin de caractériser les changements quant au nombre de jours où les conditions de chasse sont convenables. Comparativement aux décennies précédentes, les chasseurs de Wainwright observent un moins grand nombre de jours, à l’heure actuelle, qu’au cours des décennies précédentes pendant lesquels le régime des vents se prête à la chasse sécuritaire de la baleine boréale et du caribou. L’analyse statistique des données de la vitesse du vent permet de soutenir ces conclusions et suggère qu’annuellement, la période pendant laquelle chacune de ces espèces peut faire l’objet de la chasse a diminué dans une mesure allant jusqu’à sept jours depuis 1971. Cette étude témoigne du pouvoir de collaboration qui pourrait exister entre les collectivités de la région et les chercheurs dans le but de caractériser les incidences du changement climatique sur la société. Les travaux de recherche en collaboration continue avec les habitants des collectivités rurales du nord de l’Alaska pourraient permettre de produire des connaissances et d’élaborer des outils qui aideraient les Alaskiens à s’adapter aux nouvelles conditions socioécologiques

Supporting interdisciplinary careers for sustainability

Universities and research centres around the world have made significant progress towards establishing collaborative, interdisciplinary initiatives in sustainability science. However, more needs to be done to support the career development of junior sustainability scholars whose work is often team based and outreach oriented

Globally consistent climate sensitivity of natural disturbances across boreal and temperate forest ecosystems

Disturbance regimes are changing in forests across the world in response to global climate change. Despite the profound impacts of disturbances on ecosystem services and biodiversity, assessments of disturbances at the global scale remain scarce. Here, we analyzed natural disturbances in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems for the period 2001-2014, aiming to 1) quantify their within- and between-biome variation and 2) compare the climate sensitivity of disturbances across biomes. We studied 103 unmanaged forest landscapes with a total land area of 28.2 x 10(6) ha, distributed across five continents. A consistent and comprehensive quantification of disturbances was derived by combining satellite-based disturbance maps with local expert knowledge of disturbance agents. We used Gaussian finite mixture models to identify clusters of landscapes with similar disturbance activity as indicated by the percent forest area disturbed as well as the size, edge density and perimeter-area-ratio of disturbed patches. The climate sensitivity of disturbances was analyzed using Bayesian generalized linear mixed effect models and a globally consistent climate dataset. Within-biome variation in natural disturbances was high in both boreal and temperate biomes, and disturbance patterns did not vary systematically with latitude or biome. The emergent clusters of disturbance activity in the boreal zone were similar to those in the temperate zone, but boreal landscapes were more likely to experience high disturbance activity than their temperate counterparts. Across both biomes high disturbance activity was particularly associated with wildfire, and was consistently linked to years with warmer and drier than average conditions. Natural disturbances are a key driver of variability in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems, with high similarity in the disturbance patterns between both biomes. The universally high climate sensitivity of disturbances across boreal and temperate ecosystems indicates that future climate change could substantially increase disturbance activity.Peer reviewe

Search for Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay of 130^{130}Te with CUORE-0

We report the results of a search for neutrinoless double-beta decay in a 9.8~kg$\cdot$yr exposure of $^{130}$Te using a bolometric detector array, CUORE-0. The characteristic detector energy resolution and background level in the region of interest are $5.1\pm 0.3{\rm~keV}$ FWHM and $0.058 \pm 0.004\,(\mathrm{stat.})\pm 0.002\,(\mathrm{syst.})$~counts/(keV$\cdot$kg$\cdot$yr), respectively. The median 90%~C.L. lower-limit sensitivity of the experiment is $2.9\times 10^{24}~{\rm yr}$ and surpasses the sensitivity of previous searches. We find no evidence for neutrinoless double-beta decay of $^{130}$Te and place a Bayesian lower bound on the decay half-life, $T^{0\nu}_{1/2}>$~$2.7\times 10^{24}~{\rm yr}$ at 90%~C.L. Combining CUORE-0 data with the 19.75~kg$\cdot$yr exposure of $^{130}$Te from the Cuoricino experiment we obtain $T^{0\nu}_{1/2} > 4.0\times 10^{24}~\mathrm{yr}$ at 90%~C.L.~(Bayesian), the most stringent limit to date on this half-life. Using a range of nuclear matrix element estimates we interpret this as a limit on the effective Majorana neutrino mass, $m_{\beta\beta}< 270$ -- $760~\mathrm{meV}$.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, updated version as published in PR

Analysis Techniques for the Evaluation of the Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay Lifetime in 130^{130}Te with CUORE-0

We describe in detail the methods used to obtain the lower bound on the lifetime of neutrinoless double-beta ($0\nu\beta\beta$) decay in $^{130}$Te and the associated limit on the effective Majorana mass of the neutrino using the CUORE-0 detector. CUORE-0 is a bolometric detector array located at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso that was designed to validate the background reduction techniques developed for CUORE, a next-generation experiment scheduled to come online in 2016. CUORE-0 is also a competitive $0\nu\beta\beta$ decay search in its own right and functions as a platform to further develop the analysis tools and procedures to be used in CUORE. These include data collection, event selection and processing, as well as an evaluation of signal efficiency. In particular, we describe the amplitude evaluation, thermal gain stabilization, energy calibration methods, and the analysis event selection used to create our final $0\nu\beta\beta$ decay search spectrum. We define our high level analysis procedures, with emphasis on the new insights gained and challenges encountered. We outline in detail our fitting methods near the hypothesized $0\nu\beta\beta$ decay peak and catalog the main sources of systematic uncertainty. Finally, we derive the $0\nu\beta\beta$ decay half-life limits previously reported for CUORE-0, $T^{0\nu}_{1/2}>2.7\times10^{24}$ yr, and in combination with the Cuoricino limit, $T^{0\nu}_{1/2}>4.0\times10^{24}$ yr.Comment: 18 pages, 18 figures. (Version 3 reflects only minor changes to the text. Few additional details, no major content changes.

Measurement of the Two-Neutrino Double Beta Decay Half-life of 130^{130}Te with the CUORE-0 Experiment

We report on the measurement of the two-neutrino double beta decay half-life of $^{130}$Te with the CUORE-0 detector. From an exposure of 33.4 kg$\cdot$y of TeO$_2$, the half-life is determined to be $T_{1/2}^{2\nu}$ = [8.2 $\pm$ 0.2 (stat.) $\pm$ 0.6 (syst.)] $\times$ 10$^{20}$y. This result is obtained after a detailed reconstruction of the sources responsible for the CUORE-0 counting rate, with a specific study of those contributing to the $^{130}$Te neutrinoless double beta decay region of interest.Comment: Corrected typo in section 9: 3.43E5 Bq/kg should have read 3.43E-5 Bq/k

Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P 20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks

Fundamental Symmetries, Neutrons, and Neutrinos (FSNN): Whitepaper for the 2023 NSAC Long Range Plan

This whitepaper presents the research priorities decided on by attendees of the 2022 Town Meeting for Fundamental Symmetries, Neutrons and Neutrinos, which took place December 13-15, 2022 in Chapel Hill, NC, as part of the Nuclear Science Advisory Committee (NSAC) 2023 Long Range Planning process. A total of 275 scientists registered for the meeting. The whitepaper makes a number of explicit recommendations and justifies them in detail