Experimental icing affects growth, mortality, and flowering in a high Arctic dwarf shrub

Acknowledgments This study was funded by the Research Council of Norway (POLARPROG grant 216051; SFF-III grant 223257/F50) and Svalbard Environmental Protection Fund (SMF grant 13/74). We thank Mathilde Le Moullec for helping with the fieldwork and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute for access to weather data.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Hunting for ecological indicators: are large herbivore skeleton measures from harvest data useful proxies for monitoring?

Hunter-collected data and samples are used as indices of population performance, and monitoring programs often take advantage of such data as ecological indicators. Here, we establish the relationships between measures of skeleton size (lower jawbone length and hind-leg length) and autumn carcass mass of slaughtered individuals of known age and sex of the high Arctic and endemic Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus). We assess these relationships using a long-term monitoring dataset derived from hunted or culled reindeer. The two skeleton measures were generally strongly correlated within age class. Both jaw length (R2 = 0.78) and hind-leg length (R2 = 0.74) represented good proxies of carcass mass. These relationships were primarily due to an age effect (i.e. due to growth) as the skeleton measures reached an asymptotic size at 4–6 years of age. Accordingly, strong positive correlations between skeleton measures and carcass mass were mainly evident at the young age classes (range r [0.45–0.84] for calves and yearlings). For the adults, these relationships weakened due to skeletal growth ceasing in mature animals causing increased variance in mass with age—potentially due to the expected substantial impacts of annual environmental fluctuations. As proxies for carcass mass, skeleton measurements should therefore be limited to young individuals. Although body mass is the ‘gold standard’ in monitoring large herbivores, our results indicate that skeleton measures collected by hunters only provide similar valuable information for young age classes, particularly calves and yearlings. In sum, jaw length and hind-leg length function as proxies identical to body mass when documenting the impacts of changing environmental conditions on important state variables for reindeer and other herbivores inhabiting highly variable environments. Arctic · Citizen science · Hunter-collected data · Life history · Terrestrial large herbivoreHunting for ecological indicators: are large herbivore skeleton measures from harvest data useful proxies for monitoring?publishedVersio

A new NDVI measure that overcomes data sparsity in cloud-covered regions predicts annual variation in ground-based estimates of high-arctic plant productivity

Processing of the MODIS dataset for monitoring the onset of the growing season was, in part, funded by the Environmental Monitoring of Svalbard and Jan Mayen (MOSJ). We are grateful to senior advisor John Richard Hansen, our contact person at the Norwegian Polar Institute in MOSJ, for his support, and to the members of the Arctic Biomass project (Research Council of Norway [RCN], grant 227064/E10) for valuable discussion about the NDVI – biomass relationships. Additional funding was provided by the RCN through the projects ‘Predicting effects of climate change on Svalbard reindeer population dynamics: a mechanistic approach’ (grant 216051) and ‘SnoEco’ (grant 230970), the ESA PRODEX project ‘Sentinel-2 for High North Vegetation Phenology’ (grant 4000110654), and the Svalbard Environmental Protection Funded project ’Effects of climate change on plant productivity’ (grant 15/28).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

High-Arctic family planning:Earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese

Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects. Age at first reproduction (AFR), which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been directly linked to climate change. Here, we use a case study from the highly seasonal and stochastic environment in High-Arctic Svalbard, with strong temporal trends in breeding conditions, to test whether rapid climate warming may induce changes in AFR in barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis. Using long-term mark– recapture and reproductive data (1991–2017), we developed a multi-event model to estimate individual AFR (i.e. when goslings are produced). The annual probability of reproducing for the first time was negatively affected by population density but only for 2 year olds, the earliest age of maturity. Furthermore, advanced spring onset (SO) positively influenced the probability of reproducing and even more strongly the probability of reproducing for the first time. Thus, because climate warming has advanced SO by two weeks, this likely led to an earlier AFR by more than doubling the probability of reproducing at 2 years of age. This may, in turn, impact important life-history tradeoffs and long-term population trajectories

High seasonal overlap in habitat suitability in a nonmigratory High Arctic ungulate

Understanding drivers of space use and habitat selection is essential for management and conservation, especially under rapid environmental change. Here, we develop summer and winter habitat suitability models for the endemic wild Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus). The High Arctic Svalbard tundra is currently subject to the fastest temperature increases on Earth, and reindeer spatial responses to associated environmental change are strongly restricted due to landscape barriers (including 60% glacial coverage) and lack of sea ice as movement corridors. We used an extensive dataset of GPS-collared adult females (2009–2018; N = 268 individual-years) to model seasonal habitat selection as a function of remotely sensed environmental variables , and subsequently built habitat suitability models using an ensemble modelling framework. As expected, we found that reindeer preferred productive habitats, described by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and plant biomass (derived from a vegetation map), in both seasons. This was further supported by selection for bird cliff areas, rich in forage, improving habitat suitability especially in winter. Contrary to our expectations, the terrain variables had similar, impact on habitat suitability in the two seasons, except for use of higher elevations in winter, likely related to improved forage access due to less snow. Suitable habitat patches covered only a small proportion of the landscape and were highly clustered in both seasons. About 13.0% of the total land area was suitable in both seasons, while summer-only and winter-only areas contributed a marginal addition of around 4.7% and 1.5%, respectively. This suggests, that unlike many continental and migratory Rangifer populations, even small geographic areas may encompass suffiscient suitable habitat. These first archipelago-wide habitat suitability models provide seasonal baseline maps relevant for the management and conservation of Svalbard reindeer, particularly under rapid environmental alterations from climate change

Long-term herbivore removal experiments reveal how geese and reindeer shape vegetation and ecosystem CO2-fluxes in high-Arctic tundra

1. Given the current rates of climate change, with associated shifts in herbivore population densities, understanding the role of different herbivores in ecosystem functioning is critical for predicting ecosystem responses. Here, we examined how migratory geese and resident, non-migratory reindeer—two dominating yet functionally contrasting herbivores—control vegetation and ecosystem processes in rapidly warming Arctic tundra. 2. We collected vegetation and ecosystem carbon (C) flux data at peak plant growing season in the two longest running, fully replicated herbivore removal experiments found in high-Arctic Svalbard. Experiments had been set up independently in wet habitat utilised by barnacle geese Branta leucopsis in summer and in moist-to-dry habitat utilised by wild reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus year-round. 3. Excluding geese induced vegetation state transitions from heavily grazed, mossdominated (only 4 g m−2 of live above-ground vascular plant biomass) to ungrazed, graminoid-dominated (60 g m−2 after 4-year exclusion) and horsetail-dominated (150 g m−2 after 15-year exclusion) tundra. This caused large increases in vegetation C and nitrogen (N) pools, dead biomass and moss-layer depth. Alterations in plant N concentration and CN ratio suggest overall slower plant community nutrient dynamics in the short-term (4-year) absence of geese. Long-term (15-year) goose removal quadrupled net ecosystem C sequestration (NEE) by increasing ecosystem photosynthesis more than ecosystem respiration (ER). 4. Excluding reindeer for 21 years also produced detectable increases in live aboveground vascular plant biomass (from 50 to 80 g m−2; without promoting vegetation state shifts), as well as in vegetation C and N pools, dead biomass, moss-layer depth and ER. Yet, reindeer removal did not alter the chemistry of plants and soil or NEE. 5. Synthesis. Although both herbivores were key drivers of ecosystem structure and function, the control exerted by geese in their main habitat (wet tundra) was much more pronounced than that exerted by reindeer in their main habitat (moist-todry tundra). Importantly, these herbivore effects are scale dependent, because geese are more spatially concentrated and thereby affect a smaller portion of the tundra landscape compared to reindeer. Our results highlight the substantial heterogeneity in how herbivores shape tundra vegetation and ecosystem processes, with implications for ongoing environmental change

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming onbody mass explain population dynamics in a food-limitedArctic herbivore

-The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain-on-snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic. Keywords: climate change, density dependence, extreme events, icing, nutrition, primary production, Rangifer, reindeer, Svalbard, weathe

Developing common protocols to measure tundra herbivory across spatial scales

Understanding and predicting large-scale ecological responses to global environmental change requires comparative studies across geographic scales with coordinated efforts and standardized methodologies. We designed, applied, and assessed standardized protocols to measure tundra herbivory at three spatial scales: plot, site (habitat), and study area (landscape). The plot- and site-level protocols were tested in the field during summers 2014–2015 at 11 sites, nine of them consisting of warming experimental plots included in the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). The study area protocols were assessed during 2014–2018 at 24 study areas across the Arctic. Our protocols provide comparable and easy to implement methods for assessing the intensity of invertebrate herbivory within ITEX plots and for characterizing vertebrate herbivore communities at larger spatial scales. We discuss methodological constraints and make recommendations for how these protocols can be used and how sampling effort can be optimized to obtain comparable estimates of herbivory, both at ITEX sites and at large landscape scales. The application of these protocols across the tundra biome will allow characterizing and comparing herbivore communities across tundra sites and at ecologically relevant spatial scales, providing an important step towards a better understanding of tundra ecosystem responses to large-scale environmental change