Climate change

Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD +/-0.01) to 0.81 (SD +/-0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD +/-0.008) to 0.91 (SD +/-0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered

Incentives for preventing smoking in children and adolescents (Review)

BackgroundAdult smoking usually has its roots in adolescence. If individuals do not take up smoking during this period it is unlikely that they ever will. Further, once smoking becomes established, cessation is challenging; the probability of subsequently quitting is inversely proportional to the age of initiation. One novel approach to reducing the prevalence of youth smoking is the use of incentives.ObjectivesTo determine whether incentives prevent children and adolescents from starting to smoke. We also attempted to assess the dose-response of incentives, the costs of incentive programmes, whether incentives are more or less effective in combination with other interventions to prevent smoking initiation and any unintended consequences arising from the use of incentives.Search methodsWe searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group Specialized Register, with additional searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, CSA databases and PsycINFO for terms relating to incentives, in combination with terms for smoking and tobacco use, and children and adolescents. The most recent searches were in May 2012.Selection criteriaWe considered randomized controlled trials allocating children and adolescents (aged 5 to 18 years) as individuals, groups or communities to intervention or control conditions, where the intervention included an incentive aimed at preventing smoking uptake. We also considered controlled trials with baseline measures and post-intervention outcomes.Data collection and analysisData were extracted by two authors and assessed independently. The primary outcome was the smoking status of children or adolescents at follow-up who reported no smoking at baseline. We required a minimum follow-up of six months from baseline and assessed each included study for risk of bias. We used the most rigorous definition of abstinence in each trial; we did not require biochemical validation of self-reported tobacco use for study inclusion. Where possible we combined eligible studies to calculate pooled estimates at the longest follow-up using the Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effect method, grouping studies by study design.Main resultsWe identified seven controlled studies that met our inclusion criteria, including participants with an age range of 11 to 14 years. Of the seven trials identified, only five had analysable data relevant for this review and contributed to the meta-analysis (6362 participants in total who were non-smokers at baseline; 3466 in intervention and 2896 in control). All bar one of the studies was a trial of the so-called Smokefree Class Competition (SFC), which has been widely implemented throughout Europe. In this competition, classes with youth generally between the ages of 11 to 14 years commit to being smoke free for a six month period. They report regularly on their smoking status; if 90% or more of the class is non-smoking at the end of the six months, the class goes into a competition to win prizes. The one study that was not a trial of the SFC was a controlled trial in which schools in two communities were assigned to the intervention, with schools in a third community acting as controls. Students in the intervention community with lower smoking rates at the end of the project (one school year) received rewards.Only one study of the SFC competition, a non-randomized controlled trial, reported a significant effect of the competition on the prevention of smoking at the longest follow-up. However, this study had a risk of multiple biases, and when we calculated the adjusted RR we no longer detected a statistically significant difference. The pooled RR for the more robust RCTs (3 studies, n = 3056 participants) suggests that, from the available data, there is no statistically significant effect of incentives to prevent smoking initiation among children and adolescents in the long term (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.19). Pooled results from non-randomized trials also did not detect a significant effect, and we were unable to extract data on our outcome of interest for the one trial that did not study the SFC. There is little robust evidence to suggest that unintended consequences (such as youth making false claims about their smoking status and bullying of smoking students) are consistently associated with such interventions, although this has not been the focus of much research. There was insufficient information to assess the dose-response relationship or to report costs.Authors\u27 conclusionsTo date, incentive programmes have not been shown to prevent smoking initiation among youth, although there are relatively few published studies and these are of variable quality. Trials included in this meta-analysis were all studies of the SFC competition, which distributed small to moderately sized prizes to whole classes, usually through a lottery system.Future studies might investigate the efficacy of incentives given to individual participants to prevent smoking uptake. Future research should consider the efficacy of incentives on smoking initiation, as well as progression of smoking, evaluate these in varying populations from different socioeconomic and ethnic backgrounds, and describe the intervention components in detail

Economic performance of uneven-aged forests analysed with annuities

For this study, 18 permanent research plots in Switzerland with an area between 0.5 and 2.5 ha that have been installed between 1905 and 1931 were analysed using annuities. The plots cover a wide range of uneven-aged forest-types from pure Norway spruce to classical single-tree selection (plenter) forests dominated by Silver fir in different elevations (575-1810 m a.s.l). The areas have been managed according to an uneven-aged silvicultural system and growth and yield characteristics have been assessed on a single-tree basis every 5-11 years. Net revenues of timber harvesting were computed as a time series from the installation of the plots until today and transformed into net present values and subsequently into annuities for each assessment interval. Three types of annuities: (1) for cutting cycles; (2) forward; (3) backward for the whole assessment period were calculated together with internal rates of return. The results display that annuities were usually positive with an interest of 2 per cent. High elevation (>1400 m) Norway spruce dominated forests as well as heavily overstocked (>900-1000 m3 ha−1) plots showed the lowest or even negative annuities. The reduction of overstocks lead in the mid-term to an increase, but resulted in a short-term decrease of the annuities. For many of the research plots, especially those in higher elevations, there is a trend towards an increase of the annuities over time. The highest annuities were found in Silver fir dominated selection forests with a growing stock close to or slightly above an equilibrium structure. The backward calculation of the annuities improved for some plots the problem of the strong influence of the value of the initial growing stock. Implications for uneven-aged silviculture as well as for the analysis of the economic performance of uneven-aged and even-aged forests and the application of annuities are discussed in the pape

Violence and aggression in schools in Schleswig-Holstein

In der vorliegenden Studie wurden das Ausmaß und die Verbreitung verschiedener Aggressions- und Gewaltformen an Schulen in Schleswig-Holstein untersucht. In einer repräsentativen Erhebung sind insgesamt 2382 Personen befragt worden. Im Rahmen der Fragebogenstudie wurden die Antworten von 1186 Schülern, 559 Lehrern und 637 Eltern anonym ausgewertet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen einen leichten Trend des Anstiegs der Gewaltproblematik in den letzten Jahren, ein erhebliches Ausmaß an verbaler Aggression sowie eine Reihe von innerschulischen Bedingungen von Vandalismus und Gewalthandlungen. Während in der Literatur postulierte Determinanten der Gewalt in Schulen nicht bestätigt werden konnten, zeigt sich in dieser Studie ein Zusammenhang mit Unterforderung der Schüler, Langeweile und Lärm im Unterricht. (DIPF/Text übernommen)The present study describes the extent and distribution of several forms of aggression and violence in schools in Schleswig-Holstein. Answers from 2382 persons were compiled in a representative sample .1186 pupils, 559 teachers and 637 parents participated in the study. Results indicate a slight increase in violence in schools during the last three years. However, a high frequency of verbal aggression was found. Additionally, a number of determinants of vandalism and acts of violence could be documented; underachievement, boredom, and a high noise level in classrooms reveal a high correlation with aggression and violence. On the other hand, several classic determinants of violence in schools could not be confirmed. (DIPF/Orig.

Seeing and liking cigarette advertisements: is there a 'mere exposure' effect?

AIMS: We aimed to explain the association between exposure to a cigarette advertisement and favorable attitudes towards the advertisement. METHODS: We used data from an observational cross-sectional study with a sample of 3,415 German schoolchildren aged 10-17 years. Cigarette advertising exposure was assessed with an image of a Marlboro ad, asking for contact frequency (number of times seen the ad) and brand name. Liking of the ad was measured with two items (alpha = 0.78). RESULTS: We found a positive linear association between exposure to the Marlboro ad and liking it. This association remained significant (standardized β = 0.09; p < 0.001) even after statistical control for smoking status, smoking of friends and parents, attitudes towards smoking in general, cigarette advertising receptivity (having a favorite cigarette ad), exposure to other advertisings, age, sex, socioeconomic status, rebelliousness and sensation seeking, self-reported school performance, and study region. CONCLUSIONS: The association between exposure to an advertisement and liking it was robust and could not be fully explained without referring to either unmeasured confounding or implicit advertising effects (e.g. mere exposure). Implicit effects have implications for prevention strategies as it may be very difficult to counteract unconscious advertising effects

Machine learning based soil maps for a wide range of soil properties for the forested area of Switzerland

Spatial soil information in forests is crucial to assess ecosystem services such as carbon storage, water purification or biodiversity. However, spatially continuous information on soil properties at adequate resolution is rare in forested areas, especially in mountain regions. Therefore, we aimed to build high-resolution soil property maps for pH, soil organic carbon, clay, sand, gravel and soil density for six depth intervals as well as for soil thickness for the entire forested area of Switzerland. We used legacy data from 2071 soil profiles and evaluated six different modelling approaches of digital soil mapping, namely lasso, robust external-drift kriging, geoadditive modelling, quantile regression forest (QRF), cubist and support vector machines. Moreover, we combined the predictions of the individual models by applying a weighted model averaging approach. All models were built from a large set of potential covariates which included e.g. multi-scale terrain attributes and remote sensing data characterizing vegetation cover. Model performances, evaluated against an independent dataset were similar for all methods. However, QRF achieved the best prediction performance in most cases (18 out of 37 models), while model averaging outperformed the individual models in five cases. For the final soil property maps we therefore used the QRF predictions. Prediction performance showed large differences for the individual soil properties. While for fine earth density the R2 of QRF varied between 0.51 and 0.64 across all depth intervals, soil organic carbon content was more difficult to predict (R2 = 0.19–0.32). Since QRF was used for map prediction, we assessed the 90% prediction intervals from which we derived uncertainty maps. The latter are valuable to better interpret the predictions and provide guidance for future mapping campaigns to improve the soil maps

Smoking in movies and smoking initiation in adolescents: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background and aims: Preventing young people from initiating smoking is a vital public health objective. There is strong evidence that exposure to smoking imagery in movies is associated with an increased risk of smoking uptake. However, the estimate of the magnitude of effect is not clear since previous reviews have synthesised estimates of cross-sectional and longitudinal associations. Therefore, we have performed a systematic review to quantify cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between exposure to smoking in movies and initiating smoking in adolescents. Methods: Four electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, IBSS) and grey literature were searched from inception to May 2015 for comparative epidemiological studies (cross sectional and cohort studies) that reported the relation between exposure to smoking in movies and smoking initiation in adolescence (10-19 years). Reference lists of studies and previous reviews were also screened. Two authors independently screened papers and extracted data. Results: 17 studies met our inclusion criteria. Random effects meta-analysis of nine cross sectional studies demonstrated higher exposure (typically highest vs lowest quantile) of smoking in movies was significantly associated with a doubling in risk of ever trying smoking (RR 1.93, 95% CI 1.66 to 2.25). In 8 longitudinal studies (all deemed high quality), higher exposure to smoking in movies was significantly associated with a 46% increased risk of initiating smoking (RR 1.46; 95% CI 1.23 to 1.73). These pooled estimates were significantly different from each other (p=0.02). Moderate levels of heterogeneity were seen in the meta-analyses. Conclusions: The cross-sectional association between young people reporting having seen smoking imagery in films and smoking status is greater than the prospective association. Both associations are substantial but it is not clear whether they are causal

Vulnerability of uneven-aged forests to storm damage

Uneven-aged forests are assumed to have a high stability against storm damage but have rarely been analysed for vulnerability to storm damage due to a lack of a sufficient empirical database. Here we model storm damage in uneven-aged forest to analyse major factors that may determine the sensitivity of this type of forests to storms based on a broad database. Data are derived of public forests in the canton Neuchâtel in West Switzerland that are dominated by silver fir and Norway spruce and managed since the beginning of the 20th century following a single-tree selection system. A unique dataset of periodical (every 5-10 years) full inventories measuring the diameter of every single tree including salvage cuttings was available for the investigation. The time series reached back until 1920 and covered an area of 16 000 ha divided into 3000 divisions. The effect of a major winter storm (‘Lothar') in December 1999 on these forests was investigated using a subset of 648 divisions. The influence of the vertical stand structure on the vulnerability of storm damage was studied using logistic regression models. To facilitate the analyses, an index of closeness to a J-shaped distribution (LikeJ) based on the number of trees in different diameter classes was developed. Besides structural indices, variables representing stand characteristics, soil-related and topography-related variables were included. The results of our study show that the overall damage level of the investigated forests was rather low. The variables that entered the model for the uneven-aged stands were different to those that are normally significant for even-aged stands. While variables like stand structure, the timing of the harvesting and topographic variables entered a multivariate statistical model as significant predictors, standard predictors for storm damage in even-aged stands such as stand density, thinning intensity or species composition were not significant. We hypothesize that the uneven-aged structure of the investigated forests may be one reason for the low damage level we observed but emphasize the need for more detailed research to support this conclusio