3,953 research outputs found

    The risk of rabies spread in Japan: a mathematical modeling assessment

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    Rabies was eliminated from Japan in 1957. In the 60 years since elimination, vaccination coverage has declined and dog ownership habits have changed. The purpose of this study was to assess the current risk of rabies spread in Japan. A spatially explicit transmission model was developed at the 1 km2 grid scale for Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures. Parameters associated with dog movement and bite injuries were estimated using historical records from Japan, and were used with previously published epidemiological parameters. The final epidemic size, efficacy of rabies contingency plans and the influence of dog owner responses to incursions were assessed by the model. Average outbreak sizes for dog rabies were 3.1 and 4.7 dogs in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Average number of bite injury cases were 4.4 and 6.7 persons in Hokkaido and Ibaraki Prefectures, respectively. Discontinuation of mandatory vaccination increased outbreak sizes in these prefectures. Sensitivity analyses showed that higher chance of unintentional release of rabid dogs by their owners (from 0.5 to 0.9 probability) increased outbreak size twofolds. Our model outputs suggested that at present, incursions of rabies into Japan are very unlikely to cause large outbreaks. Critically, the reaction of dog owners to their dogs developing rabies considerably impacts the course of outbreaks. Contingency measures should therefore include sensitisation of dog owners

    Changes in the McGurk Effect Across Phonetic Contexts

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    To investigate the process underlying audiovisual speech perception, the McGurk illusion was examined across a range of phonetic contexts. Two major changes were found. First, the frequency of illusory /g/ fusion percepts increased relative to the frequency of illusory /d/ fusion percepts as vowel context was shifted from /i/ to /a/ to /u/. This trend could not be explained by biases present in perception of the unimodal visual stimuli. However, the change found in the McGurk fusion effect across vowel environments did correspond systematically with changes in second format frequency patterns across contexts. Second, the order of consonants in illusory combination percepts was found to depend on syllable type. This may be due to differences occuring across syllable contexts in the timecourses of inputs from the two modalities as delaying the auditory track of a vowel-consonant stimulus resulted in a change in the order of consonants perceived. Taken together, these results suggest that the speech perception system either fuses audiovisual inputs into a visually compatible percept with a similar second formant pattern to that of the acoustic stimulus or interleaves the information from different modalities, at a phonemic or subphonemic level, based on their relative arrival times.National Institutes of Health (R01 DC02852

    Interactive Music Generation with Positional Constraints using Anticipation-RNNs

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    Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNS) are now widely used on sequence generation tasks due to their ability to learn long-range dependencies and to generate sequences of arbitrary length. However, their left-to-right generation procedure only allows a limited control from a potential user which makes them unsuitable for interactive and creative usages such as interactive music generation. This paper introduces a novel architecture called Anticipation-RNN which possesses the assets of the RNN-based generative models while allowing to enforce user-defined positional constraints. We demonstrate its efficiency on the task of generating melodies satisfying positional constraints in the style of the soprano parts of the J.S. Bach chorale harmonizations. Sampling using the Anticipation-RNN is of the same order of complexity than sampling from the traditional RNN model. This fast and interactive generation of musical sequences opens ways to devise real-time systems that could be used for creative purposes.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figure

    Present state of knowledge of the upper atmosphere: An assessment report; processes that control ozone and other climatically important trace gases

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    The state of knowledge of the upper atmosphere was assessed as of January 1986. The physical, chemical, and radiative processes which control the spatial and temporal distribution of ozone in the atmosphere; the predicted magnitude of ozone perturbations and climate changes for a variety of trace gas scenarios; and the ozone and temperature data used to detect the presence or absence of a long term trend were discussed. This assessment report was written by a small group of NASA scientists, was peer reviewed, and is based primarily on the comprehensive international assessment document entitled Atmospheric Ozone 1985: Assessment of Our Understanding of the Processes Controlling Its Present Distribution and Change, to be published as the World Meteorological Organization Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project Report No. 16

    Transmission dynamics and prospects for the elimination of canine rabies

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    Rabies has been eliminated from domestic dog populations in Western Europe and North America, but continues to kill many thousands of people throughout Africa and Asia every year. A quantitative understanding of transmission dynamics in domestic dog populations provides critical information to assess whether global elimination of canine rabies is possible. We report extensive observations of individual rabid animals in Tanzania and generate a uniquely detailed analysis of transmission biology, which explains important epidemiological features, including the level of variation in epidemic trajectories. We found that the basic reproductive number for rabies, R<sub>0</sub>, is very low in our study area in rural Africa (∼1.2) and throughout its historic global range (<2). This finding provides strong support for the feasibility of controlling endemic canine rabies by vaccination, even near wildlife areas with large wild carnivore populations. However, we show that rapid turnover of domestic dog populations has been a major obstacle to successful control in developing countries, thus regular pulse vaccinations will be required to maintain population-level immunity between campaigns. Nonetheless our analyses suggest that with sustained, international commitment, global elimination of rabies from domestic dog populations, the most dangerous vector to humans, is a realistic goal

    A comparison of center of pressure variables recorded during running in barefoot, minimalist footwear, and traditional running shoes in the female population

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    In recent years, barefoot running and running in minimalist footwear as opposed to running in traditional running shoes has increased in popularity. The influence of such footwear choices on center of pressure (COP) displacements and velocity variables linked to injuries is yet to be understood. The aim of this study was to investigate differences between COP variables, linked to injuries measured in barefoot running, a minimalist running shoe, and with traditional running shoes and conditions during running in a healthy female population. Seventeen healthy female participants were examined. Participants performed five footfalls in each footwear condition while running at 12km/hƂĀ±10% over a pressure plate while COP variables were recorded at 500Hz. The results suggest that minimalist running shoe COP characteristics were similar to those of barefoot runners, with various significant differences reported in both groups compared to runners with the traditional running shoe

    Landscape attributes governing local transmission of an endemic zoonosis: rabies virus in domestic dogs

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    Landscape heterogeneity plays an important role in disease spread and persistence, but quantifying landscape influences and their scale dependence is challenging. Studies have focused on how environmental features or global transport networks influence pathogen invasion and spread, but their influence on local transmission dynamics that underpin the persistence of endemic diseases remains unexplored. Bayesian phylogeographic frameworks that incorporate spatial heterogeneities are promising tools for analysing linked epidemiological, environmental and genetic data. Here, we extend these methodological approaches to decipher the relative contribu- tion and scale-dependent effects of landscape influences on the transmission of endemic rabies virus in Serengeti district, Tanzania (area ~4,900 km2). Utilizing detailed epidemiological data and 152 complete viral genomes collected between 2004 and 2013, we show that the localized presence of dogs but not their density is the most important determinant of diffusion, implying that culling will be ineffec- tive for rabies control. Rivers and roads acted as barriers and facilitators to viral spread, respectively, and vaccination impeded diffusion despite variable annual cov- erage. Notably, we found that landscape effects were scale-dependent: rivers were barriers and roads facilitators on larger scales, whereas the distribution of dogs was important for rabies dispersal across multiple scales. This nuanced understanding of the spatial processes that underpin rabies transmission can be exploited for targeted control at the scale where it will have the greatest impact. Moreover, this research demonstrates how current phylogeographic frameworks can be adapted to improve our understanding of endemic disease dynamics at different spatial scales
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