Sources of pro-cyclicality in east Asian financial systems

Procyclicality is a normal feature of economic systems, but financial sector weaknesses can exacerbate it sufficiently to pose a threat to macroeconomic and financial stability. These include shortcomings in bank risk management and governance, in supervision and in terms of dependence on volatile sources of funds. The paper tests econometrically for the importance of such features leading to pro-cyclicality in the financial systems of 11 East Asian countries. This analysis makes it possible to identify specific policy measures for East Asian countries that could limit the extent to which financial systems exacerbate pro-cyclicality

Modulating gut microbiota in a mouse model of Graves' orbitopathy and its impact on induced disease

BACKGROUND: Graves' disease (GD) is an autoimmune condition in which autoantibodies to the thyrotropin receptor (TSHR) cause hyperthyroidism. About 50% of GD patients also have Graves' orbitopathy (GO), an intractable disease in which expansion of the orbital contents causes diplopia, proptosis and even blindness. Murine models of GD/GO, developed in different centres, demonstrated significant variation in gut microbiota composition which correlated with TSHR-induced disease heterogeneity. To investigate whether correlation indicates causation, we modified the gut microbiota to determine whether it has a role in thyroid autoimmunity. Female BALB/c mice were treated with either vancomycin, probiotic bacteria, human fecal material transfer (hFMT) from patients with severe GO or ddH2O from birth to immunization with TSHR-A subunit or beta-galactosidase (βgal; age ~ 6 weeks). Incidence and severity of GD (TSHR autoantibodies, thyroid histology, thyroxine level) and GO (orbital fat and muscle histology), lymphocyte phenotype, cytokine profile and gut microbiota were analysed at sacrifice (~ 22 weeks). RESULTS: In ddH2O-TSHR mice, 84% had pathological autoantibodies, 67% elevated thyroxine, 77% hyperplastic thyroids and 70% orbital pathology. Firmicutes were increased, and Bacteroidetes reduced relative to ddH2O-βgal; CCL5 was increased. The random forest algorithm at the genus level predicted vancomycin treatment with 100% accuracy but 74% and 70% for hFMT and probiotic, respectively. Vancomycin significantly reduced gut microbiota richness and diversity compared with all other groups; the incidence and severity of both GD and GO also decreased; reduced orbital pathology correlated positively with Akkermansia spp. whilst IL-4 levels increased. Mice receiving hFMT initially inherited their GO donors' microbiota, and the severity of induced GD increased, as did the orbital brown adipose tissue volume in TSHR mice. Furthermore, genus Bacteroides, which is reduced in GD patients, was significantly increased by vancomycin but reduced in hFMT-treated mice. Probiotic treatment significantly increased CD25+ Treg cells in orbital draining lymph nodes but exacerbated induced autoimmune hyperthyroidism and GO. CONCLUSIONS: These results strongly support a role for the gut microbiota in TSHR-induced disease. Whilst changes to the gut microbiota have a profound effect on quantifiable GD endocrine and immune factors, the impact on GO cellular changes is more nuanced. The findings have translational potential for novel, improved treatments. Video abstract

Intrinsic gain modulation and adaptive neural coding

In many cases, the computation of a neural system can be reduced to a receptive field, or a set of linear filters, and a thresholding function, or gain curve, which determines the firing probability; this is known as a linear/nonlinear model. In some forms of sensory adaptation, these linear filters and gain curve adjust very rapidly to changes in the variance of a randomly varying driving input. An apparently similar but previously unrelated issue is the observation of gain control by background noise in cortical neurons: the slope of the firing rate vs current (f-I) curve changes with the variance of background random input. Here, we show a direct correspondence between these two observations by relating variance-dependent changes in the gain of f-I curves to characteristics of the changing empirical linear/nonlinear model obtained by sampling. In the case that the underlying system is fixed, we derive relationships relating the change of the gain with respect to both mean and variance with the receptive fields derived from reverse correlation on a white noise stimulus. Using two conductance-based model neurons that display distinct gain modulation properties through a simple change in parameters, we show that coding properties of both these models quantitatively satisfy the predicted relationships. Our results describe how both variance-dependent gain modulation and adaptive neural computation result from intrinsic nonlinearity.Comment: 24 pages, 4 figures, 1 supporting informatio

The Rewiring of Ubiquitination Targets in a Pathogenic Yeast Promotes Metabolic Flexibility, Host Colonization and Virulence

Funding: This work was funded by the European Research Council [http://erc.europa.eu/], AJPB (STRIFE Advanced Grant; C-2009-AdG-249793). The work was also supported by: the Wellcome Trust [www.wellcome.ac.uk], AJPB (080088, 097377); the UK Biotechnology and Biological Research Council [www.bbsrc.ac.uk], AJPB (BB/F00513X/1, BB/K017365/1); the CNPq-Brazil [http://cnpq.br], GMA (Science without Borders fellowship 202976/2014-9); and the National Centre for the Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of Animals in Research [www.nc3rs.org.uk], DMM (NC/K000306/1). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Acknowledgments We thank Dr. Elizabeth Johnson (Mycology Reference Laboratory, Bristol) for providing strains, and the Aberdeen Proteomics facility for the biotyping of S. cerevisiae clinical isolates, and to Euroscarf for providing S. cerevisiae strains and plasmids. We are grateful to our Microscopy Facility in the Institute of Medical Sciences for their expert help with the electron microscopy, and to our friends in the Aberdeen Fungal Group for insightful discussions.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Responses of marine benthic microalgae to elevated CO<inf>2</inf>

Increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are causing a rise in pCO2 concentrations in the ocean surface and lowering pH. To predict the effects of these changes, we need to improve our understanding of the responses of marine primary producers since these drive biogeochemical cycles and profoundly affect the structure and function of benthic habitats. The effects of increasing CO2 levels on the colonisation of artificial substrata by microalgal assemblages (periphyton) were examined across a CO2 gradient off the volcanic island of Vulcano (NE Sicily). We show that periphyton communities altered significantly as CO2 concentrations increased. CO2 enrichment caused significant increases in chlorophyll a concentrations and in diatom abundance although we did not detect any changes in cyanobacteria. SEM analysis revealed major shifts in diatom assemblage composition as CO2 levels increased. The responses of benthic microalgae to rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions are likely to have significant ecological ramifications for coastal systems. © 2011 Springer-Verlag

Poor performance of the rapid test for human brucellosis in health facilities in Kenya

Human brucellosis is considered to be an important but typically under-diagnosed cause of febrile illness in many low and middle-income countries. In Kenya, and throughout East Africa, laboratory diagnosis for the disease is based primarily on the febrile antigen Brucella agglutination test (FBAT), yet few studies of the diagnostic accuracy of this test exist. Assessment of the performance of the FBAT is essential for its appropriate clinical use, as well as for evaluating surveillance data reported by public health systems. To assess FBAT performance, we collected sera from people with symptoms compatible with brucellosis attending two health facilities in Busia County, Kenya. Sera were tested using the FBAT and results compared with those from the Rose Bengal Test (RBT), an assay with well-known performance characteristics. Positives on either test were confirmed using the classical serum agglutination test (SAT)-Coombs test combination and a rapid IgM/IgG lateral flow immunochromatography assay (LFA). A questionnaire focussing on known risk factors for exposure to Brucella spp. was also conducted, and relationships with FBAT positivity examined using logistic regression. Out of 825 recruited individuals, 162 (19.6%) were classified as positive using the FBAT. In contrast, only eight (1.0%) were positive using the RBT. Of the 162 FBAT positives, one (0.62%) had an atypical agglutination in SAT and three (1.9%) showed low Coombs titres. Out of 148 FBAT positive individuals tested using the LFA, five (3.4%) were IgM positive and none were IgG positive. Poor or no correlation was observed between FBAT results and most established risk factors for Brucella infection. We observed substantial disagreement between the FBAT and a number of well-known serological tests, with the majority of reactive FBAT results appearing to be false positives. Poor FBAT specificity, combined with a lack of confirmatory testing, strongly suggests overdiagnosis of brucellosis is common in this low prevalence setting. This is expected to have important economic impacts on affected patients subjected to the long and likely unnecessary courses of multiple antibiotics required for treatment of the disease

Electrical cardioversion during pregnancy: safe or not?

Two pregnant patients with a sustained symptomatic maternal supraventricular arrhythmia are presented. Both patients were treated with direct-current cardioversion. Electrical cardioversion during pregnancy is a rarely applied but highly effective procedure in the treatment of maternal cardiac arrhythmias and is assumed safe for both mother and child. However, once foetal viability is reached, monitoring of the foetal heart rate is advised and facilities for immediate caesarean section should be available

Locked Nucleic Acid Pentamers as Universal PCR Primers for Genomic DNA Amplification

Background: Multiplexing technologies, which allow for simultaneous detection of multiple nucleic acid sequences in a single reaction, can save a lot of time, cost and labor compared to traditional single reaction detection methods. However, the multiplexing method currently used requires precise handiwork and many complicated steps, making a new, simpler technique desirable. Oligonucleotides containing locked nucleic acid residues are an attractive tool because they have strong affinities for their complementary targets, they have been used to avoid dimer formation and mismatch hybridization and to enhance efficient priming. In this study, we aimed to investigate the use of locked nucleic acid pentamers for genomic DNA amplification and multiplex genotyping. Results: We designed locked nucleic acid pentamers as universal PCR primers for genomic DNA amplification. The locked nucleic acid pentamers were able to prime amplification of the selected sequences within the investigated genomes, and the resulting products were similar in length to those obtained by restriction digest. In Real Time PCR of genomic DNA from three bacterial species, locked nucleic acid pentamers showed high priming efficiencies. Data from bias tests demonstrated that locked nucleic acid pentamers have equal affinities for each of the six genes tested from the Klebsiella pneumoniae genome. Combined with suspension array genotyping, locked nucleic acid pentamer-based PCR amplification was able to identify a total of 15 strains, including 3 species of bacteria, by gene- and species-specific probes. Among the 32 specie

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation