A novel approach to assessing validity in sports performance research: integrating expert practitioner opinion into the statistical analysis

Purpose: Using elite youth soccer players’ maximal sprinting speeds collected from a criterion and non-criterion measure, we demonstrate how expert practitioner opinion can be used to determine measurement validity. Methods: Expert soccer practitioners (n = 50) from around the world were surveyed on issues relating to the measurement of maximal sprinting speed and 12 elite youth soccer players performed two maximal 40 m sprints, measured by 10-Hz GPS units (non-criterion) and a 100-Hz Laser (criterion). Setting statistical equivalence bounds as practitioner opinion of the practically acceptable amount of measurement error for maximal sprinting speed, we assessed agreement between GPS and Laser. Results: Survey respondents reported a combination of methods for deriving maximal sprinting speed (tests, training, match) but most did not assess system validity. Median value of the practically acceptable amount of measurement error for maximal sprinting speed was 0.20 m/s. Maximal sprinting speed was 8.79 ± 0.33 m/s (Laser) and 8.75 ± 0.32 m/s (GPS), and the mean difference was 0.04 (90% confidence interval −0.03 to 0.11) m/s. Using the median acceptable amount of measurement error, we set our lower and upper equivalence bounds to −0.10 m/s and +0.10 m/s, respectively. Equivalence testing showed Laser and GPS as likely equivalent measures (probability 93.7%). Conclusion: Using expert-informed equivalence thresholds represents a novel way to assess validity in sports performance research. © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

Sensitivity of non-conditional climatic variables to climate-change deep uncertainty using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.There is substantial evidence suggesting climate change is having an adverse impact on the world's water resources. One must remember, however, that climate change is beset by uncertainty. It is therefore meaningful for climate change impact assessments to be conducted with stochastic-based frameworks. The degree of uncertainty about the nature of a stochastic phenomenon may differ from one another. Deep uncertainty refers to a situation in which the parameters governing intervening probability distributions of the stochastic phenomenon are themselves subjected to some degree of uncertainty. In most climatic studies, however, the assessment of the role of deep-uncertain nature of climate change has been limited. This work contributes to fill this knowledge gap by developing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis involving Bayes' theorem that merges the stochastic patterns of historical data (i.e., the prior distribution) and the regional climate models' (RCMs') generated climate scenarios (i.e., the likelihood function) to redefine the stochastic behavior of a non-conditional climatic variable under climate change conditions (i.e., the posterior distribution). This study accounts for the deep-uncertainty effect by evaluating the stochastic pattern of the central tendency measure of the posterior distributions through regenerating the MCMCs. The Karkheh River Basin, Iran, is chosen to evaluate the proposed method. The reason for selecting this case study was twofold. First, this basin has a central role in ensuring the region's water, food, and energy security. The other reason is the diverse topographic profile of the basin, which imposes predictive challenges for most RCMs. Our results indicate that, while in most seasons, with the notable exception of summer, one can expect a slight drop in the temperature in the near future, the average temperature would continue to rise until eventually surpassing the historically recorded values. The results also revealed that the 95% confidence interval of the central tendency measure of computed posterior probability distributions varies between 0.1 and 0.3 °C. The results suggest exercising caution when employing the RCMs' raw projections, especially in topographically diverse terrain.Iran National Science Foundation (INSF

System dynamics modeling of lake water management under climate change

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordAvailability of data and materials: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.Code availability: The codes that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.Lake Urmia, the twentieth largest lake in the world, is the most valuable aquatic ecosystem in Iran. The lake water level has decreased in recent years due to human activities and climate change. Several studies have highlighted the significant roles of climatic and anthropogenic factors on the shrinkage of the lake. Management policies for water resources harvesting must be adopted to adapt to climate change and avoid the consequent problems stemming from the drought affecting Lake Urmia, and rationing must be applied to the upstream water demands. This study analyzes strategies and evaluates their effectiveness in overcoming the Urmia Lake crisis. Specifically, system dynamics analysis was performed for simulating the water volume of Lake Urmia, and the Hadley Centre coupled model was applied to project surface temperature and precipitation for two future periods: 2021-2050 and 2051-2080. Six management scenarios were considered for decreasing the allocation of agricultural water demand corresponding to two options: (1) one-reservoir option (Bukan reservoir only), and (2) six-reservoir option. The net inflow of Urmia Lake was simulated for the two future periods with the IHACRES model and with artificial neural network models under the six management scenarios. The annual average volumes of Lake Urmia would be 30 × 109 and 12 × 109 m3 over the first and second future periods, respectively, without considering the management scenarios. The lake volumes would rise by about 50% and 75% for the first and second periods, respectively under the management scenarios that involve strict protective measures and elimination of the effect of all dams and their reservoirs. Implementing strict measures would increase the annual average lake volume to 21 × 109 m3 in the second period; yet, this volume would be less than the long-term average and strategic volume. The human water use would be completely eliminated under Scenario 6. Nevertheless, Lake Urmia would experience a considerable loss of storage because of drought.Iran National Science Foundation (INSF

MR imaging of hepatic lymphangioma

A case of primary hepatic lymphangioma with a microcystic component was incidentally found in a 75-year-old woman. Although ultrasonography (US) and computed tomography (CT) showed a mixed lesion including cystic and solid components, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) demonstrated the morphologic characteristics of the lesion better than other modalities

Optimal virtual water flows for improved food security in water-scarce countries

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordThe worsening water scarcity has imposed a significant stress on food production in many parts of the world. This stress becomes more critical when countries seek self-sufficiency. A literature review shows that food self-sufficiency has not been assessed as the main factor in determining the optimal cultivation patterns. However, food self-sufficiency is one of the main policies of these countries and requires the most attention and concentration. Previous works have focused on the virtual water trade to meet regional food demand and to calculate trade flows. The potential of the trade network can be exploited to improve the cropping pattern to ensure food and water security. To this end, and based on the research gaps mentioned, this study develops a method to link intra-country trade networks, food security, and total water footprints (WFs) to improve food security. The method is applied in Iran, a water-scarce country. The study shows that 781 × 106 m3 of water could be saved by creating a trade network. Results of the balanced trade network are input to a multi-objective optimization model to improve cropping patterns based on the objectives of achieving food security and preventing water crises. The method provides 400 management scenarios to improve cropping patterns considering 51 main crops in Iran. Results show a range of improvements in food security (19–45%) and a decrease in WFs (2–3%). The selected scenario for Iran would reduce the blue water footprint by 1207 × 106 m3, and reduce the cropland area by 19 × 103 ha. This methodology allows decision makers to develop policies that achieve food security under limited water resources in arid and semi-arid regions.Iran National Science FoundationCenter for International Scientific Studies and Collaboration (CISSC), Ministry of Science, Research and Technolog

The attitudes and beliefs of Pakistani medical practitioners about depression: a cross-sectional study in Lahore using the Revised Depression Attitude Questionnaire (R-DAQ)

BACKGROUND: Mental disorders such as depression are common and rank as major contributors to the global burden of disease. Condition recognition and subsequent management of depression is variable and influenced by the attitudes and beliefs of clinicians as well as those of patients. Most studies examining health professionals' attitudes have been conducted in Western nations; this study explores beliefs and attitudes about depression among doctors working in Lahore, Pakistan. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey conducted in 2015 used a questionnaire concerning demographics, education in psychiatry, beliefs about depression causes, and attitudes about depression using the Revised Depression Attitude Questionnaire (R-DAQ). A convenience sample of 700 non-psychiatrist medical practitioners based in six hospitals in Lahore was approached to participate in the survey. RESULTS: Six hundred and one (86 %) of the doctors approached consented to participate; almost all respondents (99 %) endorsed one of various biopsychosocial causes of depression (38 to 79 % for particular causes), and 37 % (between 13 and 19 % for particular causes) noted that supernatural forces could be responsible. Supernatural causes were more commonly held by female doctors, those working in rural settings, and those with greater psychiatry specialist education. Attitudes to depression were mostly less confident or optimistic and less inclined to a generalist perspective than those of clinicians in the UK or European nations, and deterministic perspectives that depression is a natural part of aging or due to personal failings were particularly common. However, there was substantial confidence in the efficacy of antidepressants and psychological therapy. More confident and therapeutically optimistic views and a more generalist perspective about depression management were associated with a rejection of supernatural explanations of the origin of depression. CONCLUSIONS: Non-psychiatrist medical practitioners in Pakistan hold a range of views about the causes of depression, with supernatural explanations held by more than a third. Depression attitudes appear less positive than among UK and European clinicians, with the notions that depression is due to a lack of stamina and will-power and a natural part of growing old being especially commonly held; more positive attitudes appear to be associated with a rejection of supernatural explanatory models of depression

Haddad Syndrome with PHOX2B Gene Mutation in a Korean Infant

Congenital central hypoventilation syndrome with Hirschsprung's disease, also known as Haddad syndrome, is an extremely rare disorder with variable symptoms. Recent studies described that congenital central hypoventilation syndrome had deep relation to the mutation of the PHOX2B gene in its diagnosis and phenotype. We report a newborn male infant with clinical manifestations of recurrent hypoventilation with hypercapnea and bowel obstruction. These clinical manifestations were compatible with congenital central hypoventilation syndrome and Hirschsprung's disease, and polyalanine 26 repeats in the PHOX2B gene supported the diagnosis of congenital central hypoventilation. We described a first case of Haddad syndrome in Korean and its clinical and genetic characteristics were discussed

Successful management of aggressive fibromatosis of the neck using wide surgical excision: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Aggressive fibromatosis is a benign tumor, thought to arise from deep musculoaponeurotic structures, rarely found in the head or neck. However, when it does occur in the head and neck region, it tends to be more aggressive and associated with significant morbidity, which may be attributed to the vital vascular, neurological or anatomical structures in close proximity.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report the case of a 39-year-old Pakistani man who presented with a two-month history of a lump on the right side of his neck. The mass was excised and histopathological analysis revealed a case of aggressive fibromatosis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Due to the rarity of the condition no guidelines are available on the indications and extent of each modality. Due to its aggressive behavior and tendency to invade local structures and recur, a multi-modality management strategy is usually employed. On the basis of this case, we suggest that aggressive surgery is a viable management option and may be successfully used as a single modality treatment.</p

Assessment of pulmonary artery pressure by echocardiography—A comprehensive review

Pulmonary hypertension is a pathological haemodynamic condition defined as an increase in mean pulmonary arterial pressure ≥ 25mmHg at rest, assessed using gold standard investigation by right heart catheterisation. Pulmonary hypertension could be a complication of cardiac or pulmonary disease or a primary disorder of small pulmonary arteries. Elevated pulmonary pressure (PAP) is associated with increased mortality, irrespective of the aetiology. The gold standard for diagnosis is invasive right heart catheterisation, but this has its own inherent risks. In the past 30 years, immense technological improvements in echocardiography have increased its sensitivity for quantifying pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) and it is now recognised as a safe and readily available alternative to right heart catheterisation. In future, scores combining various echo techniques can approach the gold standard in terms of sensitivity and accuracy, thereby reducing the need for repeated invasive assessments in these patients